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A description of the content follows : Actually, Tuesday's 1300 new NYSE lows was the highest reading ever. Given the unusually high level - and that this has been a consistently good reversal indicator - I have to be bullish here.

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Small Cap Network Blog

7/16/2008

Update on the NYSE’s New Lows…Wow

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 6:51 am

Since I featured this reversal indicator in Saturday’s edition (and for the last month), I definitely want to give you the latest on the number of NYSE stocks hitting new lows. Why? Well, it hit reached levels we’ve never seen before….literally.

I thought Friday’s 869 new lows was big. Tuesday’s 1304 new NYSE-listed lows is the biggest number I could find since the data has been recorded starting in 1962.

Just to really illustrate how big of a deal this is, I want to zoom in on the daily chart where the spike in new lows is stark. Then I want to show you a long-term chart of the same data. It’s well beyond stark.

Here’s the daily.

And here’s the monthly.

Folks, either the sellers way overshot, or we’re entering an almost apocalyptic time for the market. I know things are bad, but I have to believe the utter devaluation of stocks during the first half of the year predicted (successfully)the shape of things as they are now. In other words, it’s all ‘priced in’.

The new low reading has been quite good at telling us when the capitulations have occurred, so I’m still inclined to view this as a bottom/bullishly. That’s the contrarian view, but it works more often than not….particularly when we’re beyond extreme.

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1 Comment »

  1. I was watching this monday/tuesday just as you said over the weekend. This morning (7am) when I looked at the 1304 I could not wait for the market to open in order to buy DIA calls. I was using as a DIA put option as a hedge and I had actually put through the sell order on Tuesday night but did not get the Call order placed. Wouldn’t you know I missed placing my call order this morning due to my “normal” job. I truly believe in counting the number of Lows/Highs to trade!! That method of trading has really paid off for me in the past… I am still getting into DIA calls on any weakness on Thursday. Great BLOG!!!

    Editor’s response: Yeah, it’s been a great tool for me to spot capitulation. Sure enough….wish I had been able to get the 1304 new lows news out Wednesday morning versus Wednesday evening - we all could have gotten a jump. Then today? Not a big surprise following Wednesday’s rally. You just have to get in on faith, ’cause there’s no ‘trend’ anymore - just ‘jumps’.

    I’m not sweating today’s pullback - the close is the important price.

    Comment by Carter — 7/16/2008 @ 2:31 pm

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