Small Cap Network Blog

Not surprisingly, March’s retail numbers were soft…for most. Discounters like Wal-Mart (WMT) and Costco (COST) did fine, while discretionary goods saw dampened demand. The futures dropped (pre-market) on the news, though that means little to me any more. Why? I’m still mostly in a ‘bet against the open’ mode. That’s why I’m actually glad stocks ‘opened’ a little higher at 9:30 am EST today.

That said, I’m still sitting on my QQQQ April 47 puts, which I bought at $1.85. They’re now worth about $2.00 - a meager 8% gain, though I guess that’s better than getting poked with a sharp stick.

I’m still in the trade for reasons that become a little more clear with the nearby chart. I’m looking for at least a retest of the 20 day moving average line near $43.15. That will give me a little cushion (and perhaps inspire the bears) for what I really want to happen, which is a move all the way back down to the lower Bollinger band (20 day) at $41.62. At that point my puts would be worth about $5.00…a nice 150%+ win. It ain’t happened yet though.

Other things you need to know about….

I love for my stock picks to go higher; I hate for them to surge to the point where anybody else is scared to step in. We should all be used to that by now, but somehow it’s still frustrating to deal with this fire-and-ice mentality.

I say that to preface you for the chart of Telemig Celular Participacoes (TMB), which we recommended back on February 24th when it was trading at $60.75. The current price of $66.20 represents a 9% gain. The problem is, the stock pick gained 13.5% in the last week and a half. That’s just a pace I don’t see being sustained. (If a candle somehow had three ends, it would be the equivalent to all three burning.) Such a move is just likely to invite a wave of profit-taking.

Plus, the quick move puts the stock just a tad under a long-term resistance line. A slower move would have let that line extend further up and out before it was intercepted.

That’s not to say I’m getting out; it’s still a good pick. I’d just rather get to our target price of $79.20 in a straight line (which is usually faster) than by bobbing up and down. Unfortunately, nobody who’s buying or selling the stock asked me what I want. Be patient and tolerant with TMB.

We recently had a reader ask about our coverage of BioCurex (BOCX). Yes, we’re still following the company, though they’re not at the top of our watchlist.

We mentioned a while back that we knew their project was going to take time, so we were going to give them plenty of it. Since then, Abbott (ABT) has indefinitely backed out of their deal with BioCurex…something of a game-changer. BioCurex is still going to proceed with the development of RECAF, but considering Abbott was such a big deal when they teamed up, I can only wonder what kind of blow this is to the company. They’ve been fairly quiet on the topic, which I don’t interpret as a good sign.

On the other hand, they signed Inverness (IMA) as a licensee not too long ago, so maybe the Abbott news doesn’t matter.

The European Patent Office has given them a patent on RECAF, which gives the company much more negotiation power than a ‘pending’ patent would.

Bottom line…we’re still following BioCurex, for the long haul. We don’t/can’t worry about the day to day stuff, as our interest primarily lies in the strength of their RECAF technology. Licensees and patents won’t change that.

Speaking of biotech, I want to point out CEL-SCI’s (CVM) chart again. We previously looked at its higher lows and persistent attack on the ceiling at 70 cents. Since then, the lows have continued to move higher, and the stock is still knocking on the door at 70 cents. Accumulation has picked up as well.

I don’t quite know why the renewed interest. Phase III starts later in the year, and nothing has happened in the meantime that would spark a rally. However, I’ve also observed countless times how biotech stocks trade about two years into the future. As such, I think CEL-SCI is actually one of the best trading opportunities out there right now.

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