Small Cap Network Blog

Say Goodbye to Orchestra Therapeutics (OCHTE)

16 Comments »

1. I have held stock in OCHT since it was called Immune Response. I can’t seem to find out any current news about the company now. I know it was selling off assets such as their plant, but I cannot find out what has happened. Do they have to issue any type of statement to those that still own shares? How does one find out what happened to their Neurovax research on MS that they were conducting?

   Editor’s response: Yes, the stock was de-listed from the OTCBB system and sent to the pink sheets. The ticker is now OCHT.PK, though I don’t see any activity from them since early this year. The company has basically faded away…and it’s nto coming back.

   There is a market for it (surprisingly), with a few hundred shares trading every day, on average. I’m not sure who that would be though.

   As for who owns the technology - for better or worse - and all the MS research, ask Spencer Trask. Spencer Trask Investment Partners essentially ‘bought’ Orchestra through a series of financings that gave them the vast majority of the stock. It’s still not clear what their plan is with it, but they own it. I don’t think there’s any real value to it though (the technology or the research), but may they’re going to try and recoup some of their investment.

   Comment by Joel Reese — 9/30/2008 @ 1:25 pm

2. So, how does this work then? The biotech company goes away and so does the technology? Just because NeuroVax in its current form didn’t work (if that’s in fact what happened) doesn’t mean you throw the baby out with the bath water. What happens to the technology? Will anything? Has anything?

   Editor’s response: Usually the technology and R&D-to-date is sold for its perceived value at the time, discounted for the amount of money it will probably take to keep doing the research and bring  a product to market. In Orchestra’s case, NeuroVax was promising, but not terribly far down the development road. The HIV vaccine wasn’t promising at all, compared to other treatments.
   To answer your question, whoever ‘buys’ the company essentially owns the technology. Orchestra has been an oddball though.

   A guy named Kevin Kimberlin - his company actually - pretty much own the company. Why they bought it is still a little unclear. They ceased operations, and it appears Kimberlin is just sitting on the remains of Orchestra. Presumably he sees value in what Orchestra has done so far, but nobody seems to know (and he won’t say) what his intentions or hopes are. That’s the odd part….what does he see that nobody else does? My guess is he probably knows something more than we do.

   So the good news is, the technology could still be valuable. The bad news is nobody really knows at this point when it might be a deliverable drug.

   If you’re an owner, it could be a long while until you see anything - if you ever see anything. I suspect the stock will be worthless eventually, despite NeuroVax’s potential. But, at this point you have next to nothing to lose by holding on and seeing.

   Comment by buck — 7/1/2008 @ 8:42 am

3. Hello. I assume there are no news or rumors for Orchestra. I am still holding shares, which I have bought for total 43k$ before split at 2,2cents, which would now be 2,2 USD…I am missing their March announcement for “Definite material agreement…” whatever this transactions means. I very much wonder what their management is in fact doing. Any hope that scientific work will resume? They say that hope dies last. Kind regards from Europe.

   Editor’s response: Spencer Trask is buying what’s left of the company (which isn’t much, and in my opinion not worth his investment). I can only assume he’s trying to salvage something of his initial investment by keeping the company in life support long enough to sell something. I doubt the scientific work will resume, only because it didn’t work all that well.

   For me, hope is now dead. It was the last to die, but it croaked in the middle or so of last year.

   Comment by Janez Čuček — 3/18/2008 @ 3:34 am

4. i continue to watch kk gobble up 600,000 share chunks of this company every month.how does a loan for 150,000 every month get turned into a repayment of 450,000 3 months later plus the 600,000 shares of common stock of course. do you have any idea what is going on here. if you do please spell it out for me.also kk is using shares of this company as currency to satisfy debts. are the people on the other side of these transactions dupes or do they see value in these shares.back to his charitable contributions, even a dog does not shit where he sleeps. i still refuse to believe that he would make these contributions in the town where he resides , knowing he would be ridiculed for doing so if they have no value.what purpose do these bridge loans have if the company is kaput.lastly when are your 100,000 shares eligible for resale i know they are restricted and will you dump them immediately when you can

   Editor’s reponse: All good questions, but most of which I can’t answer. I think the important ‘truths’ have been covered up, and Kimberlin’s continued interest in this company is one of them. I agree - why would anybody deal a worthless stock to anybody else they do business with? Maybe they’re all dupes, but I don’t see how anybody Kevin would deal with couldn’t see that something strange was going on.

   The bridge loans for a kaput company? One of two possibilities. One, the technology behind the company is not as kaput as we all think, or two, they’re just trying to stay afloat to get through the garage sale. What’s strange about the second option is that they really don’t need money to close shop. That puts the ‘number one’ possibility back on my radar. Odd though.

   The fact is, we’ll never know. It’s crap, because a lot of people got screwed here when the company overestimated and underdelivered, and then just pulled the rug out from underneath the whole thing without even a warning.

   That said, I really don’t think the company or its research has any real value. So, I don’t expect to wake up one day and find somebody bought all these shares for a song and then made millions off of it. The HIV testing results were mediocre at best, and there’s a ton of competition in the auti-immune space. Plus, Orchestra was too early in MS testing to even see a light at the end of the tunnel. Of course, that’s why we’re all asking why Kimberlin cares at all.

   I think our shares became free-trading in November, but I know we haven’t sold them yet. We’re not in a hurry, plus, what’s the point at 10 cents? We’re as inclined now to wait for a possible upside, even if short-lived.

   Comment by david kowich — 12/12/2007 @ 4:22 pm

5. a few brief additions to my latest post: kk also used 70,000 shares of ocht on august 15, 2007, to satisfy a loan agreement made in 2006. the company is referring to their “pulling of the plug” as a “reorganization”??? WHAT THE HELL DOES THAT MEAN? mr green is a master of doublespeak isnt he? that is when he choses to speak at all. the last 10q spoke of a 10 million dollar financing. you thought alot of the language in the latest 10q was leftovers but look carefully again at it .this financing is referred to in the context of paying off one of the bridge loans “on or before dec 1 2007 or right before obtaining this specific amount of financing” those are not leftovers , thats fresh meat. enlighten me on these issues oh wise one!

   Editor’s response: ‘oh wise one’ ? Oh man…if I was truly wise I would have spotted Orchestra’s BS a long time before I did. Rorganization….pull the plug….curl up and die….they all mean the same to me. One just sounds nicer and more optimistic. Using ‘reorganization’ probably meant M. Green drew another paycheck before he went away. That’s the only conclusion I can muster up.

   You’re right about the 10Q language. They were talking about a new financing. I missed that the first time through it. I still contend most of it was boilerplate, but maybe they were thinking about it at the time. I do know for a fact they were going to be out of money by the end of  2007. It still doesn’t make any sense though…the same 10Q talks about the ‘reorg’ as well as the financing. What would be the point? (This is the same question you’re asking, I realize.)

   Answers? I have none. Nobody ever will. That’s the nature of it.

   Comment by david kowich — 10/17/2007 @ 8:43 am

6. did some reading this morning on sec.gov under kevin kimberlin/spencer trask sec filings. of particular interest to me was the sc13d/a filing on 10/04/07 in which mr kimberlin donated 100,000 shares of ocht to five different organizations . the date of the donations was august 15, 2007. the groups included the national audubon society of greenwich (the city in which he lives) boys and girls club of greenwhich, 2 corporations and harvard business school.i asked myself the following question: why would a man,if he cares about his reputation,especially in the town where he resides, donate something that supposedly is going to be worthless soon.the company has stopped functioning and he is aquiring more shares and making charitable contributions of ocht shares.as you stated previously, he must know something we do not and his actions do not portend the end of the company and ones investment in it. please feel free to discredit my analysis of these developments. we both know as you stated in an earlier post that mr green has proven worthless in providing any useful information. he never once returned any of my calls or voicemessages. the man is a coward and now the company phone number is disconnected so we are left to unravel this enigma on our own.i learned a long time ago that talk is cheap and only actions speak the truth. that is why i have focused my attention exclusively on what my kimberlin is DOING. have you tried calling spencer trask and speaking with kk i thought that might further my quest but i think ita a long shot he would take my call. your thoughts ….

   Editor’s response: A disconnected phone number pretty much says it all…literally, metaphorically, and any other ‘lly’ you can think up a word for. I have to laugh.

   Kimberlin’s donation is a bit dubious…I’m wondering if he’s writing it off at what he paid for it rather than what it’s worth. Any CPA’s out there that know how that might be possible? That’s the only logic I see in it. 

   I’ve not called Kevin, or Spencer Trask. And, I won’t. I think it would just be a waste of time, and I doubt I’d get answers anyway. I’m done doing research on it. The only thing I’m going to do now is offer observations and learning experiences from the fiasco.

   Comment by david kowich — 10/17/2007 @ 8:25 am

7. i have refrained from stating the following for fear of being fitted for a straight jacket or being forcibly enrolled in a 12 step program focusing exclusively on denial.my mostly uninformed prediction(thanks to ocht managements deaf dumb and blind disclosure policy) is as follows:both hiv and ms technologies under development are VALID! .i believe a public/private entity (akin to an airbus) is going to be created in the public health interest.see if you can find out where our ol pal joe oneill disappeared to because he has the public contacts to make this happen.are you aware that the only manager left,mr green, specialized in mergers/aquisitions in one of his previous apointments? very interesting huh! too many greedy capitalists shareholders is an impediment to sealing the deal so management has engaged in a scare tactics policy in order to cull the heard.(think unfair and highly dillutive financing, lack of communication,reverse split,cancel both programs,fire ceo, threaten liquidation) who would be crazy enough to hold on to their shares after all of this? other than me and kevin kimberlin of course. i do not believe you can inject someone with vaccine successfully nine times and on the 10th time it suddenly fails to work. mr oneills “statistically insignificant” disclaimer speaks volumes to me.i believe the results will be miraculously reinterpreted and /or the other 130 patients in the study will show positive results in a future disclosure.curios as well is mr greens “potential sale” statement of kop facility and hiv ip. in the latest 10Q. fox p3 is the keeper of the gate for autoimmune desease according to the scientific community and this company has a lock on all that ip., so lets fold up shop like a cheap table and chairs, right? a conspiracy of the highest magnitude is what i have desribed. i understand that ,but truth is stranger than fiction.excuse me for now, my therapy session is about to begin.

   Editor’s response: Joe who? Oh yeah….the guy they kicked off the island. I’m not sure of he was glad or mad (though I do wonder if golden parachutes float if you’re booted off a sinking ship).

   No, I didn’t know that about Mike Green.

   Interesting theory you have here. I agree - there’s still too much interest from ST and KK for my comfort. What do they see or know that makes it so freakin’ worth it? I’ve given up getting answers from Mr. Green…I was just placed on the media mailing list after a while. (I’m pretty sure I was insulted by that, though I can’t quite tell yet.)

   And yes, all the drugs and technology they were working on had something worth further development. Than poof - gone, much like Kaiser Sosay (10 points awarded for anybody who gets that joke). Maybe we’ll see their drugs pop up again. I hope we see them again for medical reasons. As for the company and most of your investment dollars, I think I hear a toilet flushing. Yes, there, I did hear a toilet flushing.

   If you do get locked up in a rubber room, just save me a seat. Maybe Joe O’Neill M.D. will be your shrink.

   Hope therapy went well.

   Comment by david kowich — 10/5/2007 @ 9:13 am

8. spencer trask and cheshire associates have both loaned ocht money to keep the company going. you have to ask yourself why would both entities accept as part of the repayment of those loans 600,000 shares of a company supposedly going out of business. last time i checked 600,00 x zero is zero. it doesnt make sense if the stock is headed there now does it.spencer trask and cheshire have always owned this company thru their affiliation with kevin kimberlin and or david hochman.niether of these individuals have sold their shares and they could have dumped them a long time ago as did management(at roughly 2 dollars a share)when there was a market for them.as i stated before i believe mangement is not telling the whole story . the language in the 10q was surprising to me as well, especially the one liner “investors willbe unlikely to see any return on the hundreds of millions of dollars the company has spent on hiv vaccines” if there is anything that could have been left unsaid its that statement . after all didnt they discontinue the program. why did they feel the need to reiterate that obvious reality.peculiar to say the least unless of course there is more to the story. same goes for ms treatment. what i see is ownership of this company has now been highly concentrated in the hands of k. kimberlin(the largest shareholder by far) and and the businesses he is associated with.

   Editor’s response: Hi David - thanks for the good comments.

   I basically believe you’re right…there’s more to the story than we’ll ever know. I have also heard two rumors, neither of which I can even validate with something even close to a rational hint.

   1) The company heads wanted to go private, so essentially destroyed the company to get the price down.
   2) Spencer Trask got a lot of people into the company based on the potential of NeuroVax, and those investors are now ticked off. In a best effort to make good on the NeuroVax poptential, ST is buying the technology and what’s left of the company, and intends to ‘make it work’ (i.e. bear revenue) somehow.

   Yeah, the whole 10Q was odd. I really think it was just language left in their from the last 10Q. No matter what though, Trask, Kimberlin, Hochman, and others still see some value here. I ask the same question you do…why? There’s got to be some reason. Guess we’ll find out after the fact.

   Comment by david kowich — 10/5/2007 @ 2:03 am

9. What do you make of the 10-Q released today? It looks like they are going to try to obtain financing to stay in business. Spencer Trask recently invested in the company.

   Editor’s response: Yeah, I’ve been thinking about that…some of the language was surprising. My honest best guess is, the language that alluded to staying in business (finding funding, going concern, etc.) was just the boiler-plate language left in there from the previous 10Q - they just rewrote enough of it to add in the last quarter’s worth of changes, without removing anything. If you look at other parts of the same 10Q, it’s clear Spencer Trask owns - or will own - the company soon. It’s up to Spencer Trask what happens next, and I suspect a total liquidation of technology and assets rather than an effort to revive the company. So, to answer your question, I think the 10Q was a farewell speech…with some discrepencies. I don’t think they’re trying to stay in business.

   Comment by Rico — 10/2/2007 @ 8:14 pm

10. I read lately your comments 08/29/2007 you said “Orchestra failed in terms of letting investors know what was going on and what the risks were, which is completely unacceptable.”

    Do you think that there is a possibility of a legal action against the dirigeants of orchestra , do you know if there is already an action against them…? do you know an organisation as to help us to take a legal action against orchestra …?

    We agree with you as we trust the dirigeants of orchestra fooled investors by not giving enough informations about what was going on & what the risks were & by distillating enough positive news as to keep investors buy the stock .

    I am loosing 93400 USD & I intend to hire a lawyer to sue them , any interested party should contact me

    Editor’s response: Hey Phil. Just so you know, your e-mail is hidden from other viewers to protect you. If anybody else is interested in your claim, you’ll have to find them through another means. I suggest a message board, as I’m sure there are plenty of other disgruntled owners. Good luck with that.

    That being said, I don’t think you’ll have a case. You could have a good argument, but not a case. They never really lied, and unfortunately, poor P.R. and over-estimating their success isn’t grounds for a suit. They just ceased functioning in the middle of a major study. It sucks to be sure, but I think an arbitrator or court of law would say that’s just the risk you run.

    However, I’m not a lawyer….I don’t even play one on TV. You can sue for anything - I just don’t think it would be worth it. My advice? Contact an attorney of you’re serious and get a qualified opinion.

    The other thing to think about…sue them for what? I don’t think there’s going to be anything left worth suing for. I doubt any purchaser would assume any liability.

    Anyway, good luck with whatever you decide to do.

    Comment by Phil — 9/25/2007 @ 12:45 pm

11. I think that these company is the best example that what is expect to a biotech stock traded on the otcbb with insufficient resources to develope any product. And for that the stock traded at 2 cents a year ago.
    From your perspective, is these the final for the company or there are any possibility?

    Editor’s response: In my opinion, it’s over for the company. They’re having a garage sale, and the real estate is worth more than the enterprise. Even the biotechnology they’ve developed to date has little value to a buyer, since it doesn’t really seem to work.

    Insufficient funds? Yeah, probably. Poor results played a role too though. (If the drug worked, they could have found funding.) I think it’s a case where the company assumed the best, didn’t plan for the worst, and then subsequent financings screwed previous investors. To top it off, they didn’t communicate at all. You can’t last long like that.

    Comment by Luis — 9/16/2007 @ 8:08 pm

12. Things that make me go hmmm. in the night! Specific results of ir103/remune study at 52 weeks never disclosed. No cd4 count, no viral load count,just “results less than we had hoped” Mr Oneill prefaces this statement with the caveat “numbers are statistically insignificant”. Wasnt that the point of a 200 person trial? When it comes to providing the factual information behind their decisions the management acts deaf dumb and blind.Up until week 36 the patients in this study were truely”long term non-progressors” then everything stops working?WHY?ISNT A EXPLANATION IN ORDER?PERHAPS SOME SCIENTIFIC DATA?IS THAT TOO MUCH TO ASK FROM A SHAREHOLDER? Didnt Mr Oneill all but promise to obtain the public/private funding required to see these drugs thru. Nobody had better credentials /contacts to make that happen than him Same with Neurovax, no scientific data/explanation for terminating the trial.This is very strange to me.It was my understanding that the hiv intelectual property was pledged to K. Kimberlin as collateral for his investments in the company. How can the company sell what they do not own? What was the purpose of the 25 shares of series v preferred stock with 100,000 votes per share? What this company has not told its shareholders is in my opinion far more important that what they have publically disclosed. I think there is far more to this story and management has deliberately muddied the waters . i sure would like to know the facts. I think im entitled to that as a shareholder.I also think its strange that the release of the results for both drugs did not coincide with the timelines established by the company itself. Neurovax results were not supposed to be known until Q1 08. how could they decide to discontinue with out full knowledge of 200 person results. So much information does not add up. your thought on these inconsistencies would be appreciated.

    Editor’s response: Hi David. I wish I had something helpful to add. Unfortunately, we’re pretty much seeing things the same way you are….and asking all the same questions. A scam? I don’t believe so. A sham? You bet. (The difference is intent….a scam is deliberate, where a sham is just a complete fumble in every possible way.) Just goes to show you reputation isn’t everything. Don’t expect to ever have answers to all your questions. And you’re right - we all deserve to know more. But, I don’t expect to ever hear anything more than we already know. Kimberlin owns what’s left of the company (which ain’t much). It’s B.S. - the whole thing is B.S….in my humble opinion. It just would have been nice to know a few months earlier.

    Comment by david kowich — 9/13/2007 @ 1:36 pm

13. why was the last 10Q never filed and do you know which employees are left.do you know if joe oneill had a job offer when he left ochte and i never saw kevin kimberlin unload any of his stock or make a peep during this whole process your comments on these please

    Editor’s response: Hey David. I don’t have any ‘for sure’ answers, but I can tell you what I believe to be true.

    One at a time………

    Why was the last 10Q never filed and do you know which employees are left? A. Though it would have been courteous, there’s not much need to file. What’s the worst that could happen? They get delisted? That’s going to happen anyway. As for who’s left, my understanding is that it’s just enough people to liquidate everything and close all the doors. The researchers and management are mostly gone. The CFO stuck around to take care of any remaining paperwork. They’ve basically stopped functioning. However, I still believe the intent is to sell themselves to someone as a whole, via a stock purchase. Can they find a buyer? Not sure yet.

    So you know if joe oneill had a job offer when he left ochte? A. Not that I’m aware of. I don’t get the impression it was exactly his choice (though the board had little choice as well).

    I never saw kevin kimberlin unload any of his stock or make a peep during this whole process. A. Nor did I. Then again, how could he if he wanted to? There’s no market here. Maybe he sees more hope in someone acquiring the stock instead of dumping into the market. (Not much left to lose either way….may as well take the chance)

    Comment by david kowich — 9/12/2007 @ 2:00 pm

14. I find it interesting that your team is still holding your 100,000 shares as of 9/01/07. By the way, according to my estimates, the current 20 cents stock price puts the market cap at around $2 million, so there’s already a lot of pessimism built in to the price with respect to the liquidation process.

    Editor’s response: Hi again Rico. Yes, we do still own 100K shares, but take a closer look at the fine print - it’s restricted stock. We’d love to be out (actually, we would have loved to be out long ago)….we’re just not allowed to sell it yet. As for the built-in pessimism, yep.

    Comment by Rico — 9/4/2007 @ 7:24 pm

15. 6/11/07: Editor Wrote:

    “This morning, they released on update on Phase II testing of their potential multiple sclerosis vaccine. The drug, called NeuroVax, appears to enhance the number and capability of regulatory T cells (the good kind) to identify and kill pathogenic T cells (the bad kind). Though there’s still some work and testing to be done before it even gets to the market as an approved MS treatment, it looks pretty promising so far. Better still, NeuroVax may also serve as a vaccine against psoriasis and rheumatoid arthritis.”

    8/29/07: Editor Wrote:

    “My guess is it was like IR103….a lot of promise, but the poor early results just didn’t have enough merit to carry it on. To me, considering how small the company was, they would have been acquired by a major name if the drug had any real hope. It would be years - and millions of dollars - before NeuroVax would be ready….if it ever even gets FDA approval. I just don’t think anybody else wants to touch something like that unless the early testing looked like sure thing - which they don’t.”

    I have difficulty reconciling these two quotes. It’s been less than 3 months since the last update on the drug, which gave results on a completed 36 patient Phase II trial. It appears you are suggesting that the current Phase II trial involving 200 patients took a turn for the worse recently, without a news release.

    Editor’s response: You hit the nail on the head - the decision to go forward with NeuroVax was made very public. The decision to stop trials less than three months later was indeed made with no fanfare whatsoever. That’s what I was grumbling about on the 29th…Orchestra never said a word; they just stopped functioning. I don’t know that they even got far enough into the 200 person trial to make a good/bad call, so that’s not what I was trying to imply or say (sorry if it came cross like I was privy to the actual medical research).

    For Orchestra, it was worth trying to further develop, as they were already committed (financially) thus far - they were already neck-deep in risk, and only they could get themselves out of it. It wasn’t yet worth another company stepping in and buying Orchestra for their technology….no need for a major names to take on that added risk/burden for a mostly-unproven MS treatment. I still think Orchestra would have been acquired once Neurovax started to see the light of day.

    To answer your concern, three months ago, the data they had published did indeed look good…..for an early trial. However, I was very careful in the way I said it, as I was concerned that this would happen….

    “The drug, called NeuroVax, appears to enhance the number and capability of regulatory T cells (the good kind) to identify and kill pathogenic T cells (the bad kind). Though there’s still some work and testing to be done before it even gets to the market as an approved MS treatment, it looks pretty promising so far.”

    A lot of therapies look good early on. As time moves on though, a lot of drugs fail to live up to the hype.

    Is this what happened to NeuroVax? Three months isn’t long in the world of biotech. I don’t think NeuroVax was suddenly found to be completely worthless after it was so encouraging in June. Between then and now though, something obviously changed.

    NeuroVax, which the company was ready to pour years and millions into in June, suddenly lost its luster. I think the company over-hyped (and even believed in) NeuroVax’s future a few months ago. I think they even fooled themselves, realizing after the fact that results weren’t strong enough.

    I also think it may have had something to do with the drug itself, but I think it had just as much to do with the way they’ve handled things….perhaps buying into their own hollow hype. Like I said a few weeks ago, OCHT fooled a lot of people, and burned some investors. They really didn’t handle PR well - or at all. A bad history made it tough for them to win new financing, and rightfully so.

    A great drug or a terrible drug doesn’t matter when you can’t get its development financed. While it would have been nice to see Orchestra complete the 200 person trial, sometime between June and now they decided the risk/cost was greater than the potential reward…..and they realized they couldn’t afford it, or finance it.

    That being said, what I really (ultimately) think may have happened here was a reckless series of events that put the company into a nose-dive. Toxic financing, less than ideal test results, investors subjected to constant dilution, misleading publicity…they all add up. In this case, they finally took their collective toll in the last couple of months.

    I think one of my key predictive comments from July 18th pretty much summed up the fiasco….

    Just for the record though, I’m not counting on brighter days real soon in terms of scientific progress…or even for investors. I see some of the same patterns popping up with the NeuroVax (their lead autoimmune drug) trials that we saw with their HIV work; we’re hearing about how great it could be, but phase II testing isn’t anywhere near done. I’m thinking they need to really ’show me’….something I seem to be saying a lot lately.

    Comment by Rico — 8/30/2007 @ 7:51 pm

16. I’m looking at the balance sheet dated March 31, 2007. Perhaps I’m missing something. Total Assets = $5.784 million. Total Liabilities = $16.555 million. So, liquidation would leave them short $10.771 million. Of course, I realize the numbers have changed somewhat over the last 5 months. But what about Remune and IR-103, and especially Neurovax and the autoimmune technology? From what I’ve read about Neurovax so far, this is potentially a blockbuster drug of $1 billion or more per year. I would think all of their technology should be valued at between $100 million and $200 million, if not more. I know the company won’t get fair value for the technology, but why can’t they get substantially more than $11 million so shareholders can benefit? But maybe I’m missing some substantial liabilities in this analysis. Anyway, there’s got to be at least a couple of big biotechs that would be interested in the technology and have the funds to fully develop it.

    Editor’s response: The math you’re seeing is basically the same math I saw when I came to my opinion. Yeah, the numbers have probably changed a bit since then….though I’m sure the same basic deficiency still exists. Between then and now they’ve added to their liabilities a severance package for O’Neill, severances from ‘most’ of the employees laid off, and, they’ve had to burn through some of that cash yet didn’t pull in one red cent. If anything, I think they’ll be even worse off than $10 million in the hole.

    That being said, yes you’re right - the technology and knowledge should be worth millions…..it seems. This is where things get tricky.

    I’m an investment analyst rather than a biotechnician, so it’s hard for me to really value what the NeuroVax knowledge (so far) should be worth. However, since they couldn’t get enough support for it to continue its development, I have to assume there’s a reason for that. My guess is it was like IR103….a lot of promise, but the poor early results just didn’t have enough merit to carry it on. To me, considering how small the company was, they would have been acquired by a major name if the drug had any real hope. It would be years - and millions of dollars - before NeuroVax would be ready….if it ever even gets FDA approval. I just don’t think anybody else wants to touch something like that unless the early testing looked like sure thing - which they don’t.

    Maybe I’m wrong though. Wouldn’t be the first time. I just figure it would have happened by now if it was going to at all. The best thing they have going for them is the real estate and biotech development facility.

    Bottom line: I don’t see this as a “seller’s market”. The current research and properties aren’t wildly attractive to any potential suitor, so I don’t know how they’d get much for them. There may be something for investors at the end of the liquidation, but I doubt it will be enough worth worrying about at this point.

    Comment by Rico — 8/29/2007 @ 5:49 pm

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