Yesterday I opened this can of worms, vowing to open it a little further today when we got more data. Well, we did indeed get more data about last month’s and last quarter’s retail sales. October’s retail sales fell by 2.8%… the biggest plunge ever. What had been the biggest drop-off ever was the 2.65% dip in November of 2001. Nordstrom (JWN), JC Penney (JCP), Abercrombie (ANF), and Kohl’s (KSS) all reported numbers that were well under last year’s comparable results, though they at least met or exceeded the lowered expectation. Here’s the basic breakdown…

                               Actual EPS      Estimated EPS   Same Quarter Year Ago EPS
Nordstrom                  $0.33              $0.31                        $0.68
JC Penney                  $0.55              $0.54                        $1.17
Abercrombie                $0.72              $0.71                        $1.29
Kohl’s                         $0.52              $0.51                        $0.61

Clearly nobody’s doing great, though two names stick out - Kohl’s, and Wal-Mart (which was specifically mentioned in yesterday’s look).

Based on these results, I think we can take the hint that the consumer is feeling real pain right now, which translates into pain for these companies. That’s tough part about being in a discretionary business … even when things get challenging, the “I want it” mentality can drive sales. Now though, these stores are dealing with “I just don’t have the money” problem - a different beast altogether.

The reason Kohl’s and Wal-Mart have been able to survive - and dare I say thrive - is simply that they’re more able to meet basic needs at a reasonable cost. TJX Companies (TJX) deserves an honorable mention as well on that front. For the retailers that sell goods on the upper end of the price scale though, it’s ugly. The numbers don’t lie.

There are a few more retailers to report next week; I’ll keep examining the data as long is it’s relevant.

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