Response to Reader Feedback Regarding ‘Pickle Pops’
I’ve said it before, but I want to make sure any newcomers are also aware….we welcome any and all feedback, good or bad. We read every e-mail, and every message posted in the blog. We try and respond where merited, and when it’s something worth discussing publicly, we’ll do so (but will withold your full name and e-mail for the sake of anonymity). You may not like our response, but sometimes having an honest and open forum requires that possibility.
Anyway, we’ve got such an e-mail today. Mark writes…
First off, let me say that I am an investor in the Spicy Pickle, and a huge fan of their food. However, you latest musings on the company and the stock had so much spin that it made me dizzy. I just re watched the promotional video. Mark Geman had stated that they would have 40 stores by the end of 2007, and hope to open another 40 or so during the course of 2008. Having just opened up the 42nd store in the 7th month of 2008, there is no way they will have another 40 opened by year end. Therefore, they have not done what they said they were going to do, which in my opinion is why people are bailing on the stock. Also, wasn’t it you guys a couple months ago saying that some technical “gap” had closed and now we don’t have to worry about the stock dipping below a certain price, yada yada yada? No mention of this in the latest release. Facts are facts guys and you cannot ignore them.
Thanks for the e-mail Mark. Let me respond in (roughly) the order you presented things.
1. No spin intended. The company is growing stores at a consistent pace. The stock did sink, but the stock also bounced pretty firmly. I acknowledged all of those things, but the over-arching theme has always been (go back to the very beginning of our coverage) perpetual revenue once stores are up and running. If it sounded like spin to anybody else, my apologies.
2. They had about 40 stores by the end of 2007. They have more stores being built right now (more than we know about), but I think you’re right - 40 more stores by the end of December may not be possible at this point. I don’t think that’s the reason people are selling the stock though…at least not directly. I think they’re selling the stock because the stock’s just not performing. Open to debate.
3. TO BE CLEAR, I NEVER SAID ANYTHING CLOSE TO YOUR SUMMARY “wasn’t it you guys a couple months ago saying that some technical “gap” had closed and now we don’t have to worry about the stock dipping below a certain price, yada yada yada? ”
I don’t know you, so I’m going to be as respectful as possible, but I think you’re seeing and remembering what you want to, and ignoring or overlooking what you need to. Please don’t put words in my mouth. Here’s actually what I said then….
“I believe there were two things going on in the first quarter….The other one, I believe, was the gap between 71 cents and 74 cents that had been lingering since September 24th. Gaps tend to act as vacuums, because traders just can’t tolerate an untidy chart. Well, with the gap filled and the market environment hinting at improvement, at least one (if not both) of those burdens have been lifted. Immediately after the gap was closed, shares perked up. Since then, we’ve seen higher highs and higher lows, not to mention a break past a short-term resistance line. Somebody’s buying this stock at these levels….If you were waiting to re-enter (or enter for the first time) a position, I have to say I really like the way this chart is taking shape. I feel a move back to $1.25 is possible in the near-term. I think a revisit to $2.00 is a possibility further down the road.”
I would never, have never, and will never say you never have to worry about a stock dipping below any level. You won’t find anything even close to that kind of arrogance anywhere on our site. Even my bullish stance on SPKL was obviously not set in stone.
4. We never ignore facts, good or bad. Don’t believe me? Take a look at these facts we’ve acknowledged about several of our companies….
Smart Energy (SMGY)
“I confess I’m not sure if I’m shocked or not. I knew Smart Energy Solutions (OTCBB: SMGY) was struggling - quite a bit - to grow their already-anemic top line. However, I’m not sure I expected to see such a significant drop in sales. I did though - this quarter’s revenue was 37.7% less than the same quarter a year earlier. They did $397K in Q1 of this year versus $637K in Q1 a year ago. The reason they gave? “…sales of the Battery Brain product fell as a result of delays in receipt of purchase orders from key distributors and orders for private label products that are not carried in inventory and needed to be manufactured.” I’ll provide a translation - the things aren’t selling. This company has just been a disaster. They’re not bad guys - in fact. the management team seems quite intelligent. They’re just not getting the Battery Brain on enough shelves, and then pushed through into consumers hands. They thought they could do it, but have yet to get any traction. At this point I’m inclined to go ahead and dump the company from our watchlist; there’s no sense in any of us wasting any more time on ‘em.”
Zupintra (ZUPC)
Zupintra’s ability to over-promise and under-deliver makes Orchestra’s ability to do the same look like child’s play. You can change the company’s name and focus all you want - eventually you have to make some money doing whatever it is you’ve decided to do that year. How could you not know you needed letters of credit to do telecom business, and how could you not get them for months? (To our knowledge, they still don’t have them.)
Titan Global (TTGL)
Many of you have been asking what my thoughts were (and are) regarding the fiasco known as Titan Global Holdings (TTGL, or TTGLE…depending on the day). I tried to respond to the best of my ability, but didn’t want to permanently pass judgment until I could really figure out if the mess was real, or just perceived. After having had some time to scour all the recent filings, my official and professional conclusion is this - Titan Global is a joke…a complete and utter joke.
And I could go on and on. I’m not going to though….no need to.
My point (and message) is this - we’re not always right, but we are always complete, and honest. That’s a lot more than most site’s can say.
We acknowledge success and failure…even our own. We were wrong about SPKL a couple of months ago. It wasn’t the first time, nor will it be the last time. What you’re ignoring is the incredible gain we’ve made on BMSN, THC, and the fact that we pretty much pin-pointed the market’s recent bottom (last weekend). You seem to have forgotten that we told you biotech was a ‘buy’ on June 25th. (Biotech is up 9% since then.)
Like I said, I’m not trying to be disrespectful. But, you said it yourself…”Facts are facts guys and you cannot ignore them” We totally agree, but you can’t ignore them either, for the exact same reason.
Anyway, here’s the bottom line…if you’re looking for perfection, look elsewhere - we’re not perfect. You won’t find it anywhere else, but at least you won’t waste any of our time time expecting it from us.
If you want honest and founded opinions on small cap stocks, sectors, and the general market, keep reading our stuff. If you want better than average picks, stick with us. If you want something you’re not going to get anywhere else, that’s what we do. You may well decide to unsubscribe (which is fine), but there are a few hundred thousand people that would disagree with the decision.
In the meantime, we remain bullish on Spicy Pickle. The stock does not yet reflect the company’s results, but we think it will eventually. That was our message….give it time.
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