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A description of the content follows : One more good effort from the bears - and a rejection by the bulls - is all we need to make sure this bullish effort is for real.

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Small Cap Network Blog

7/17/2008

Market Rebound Still Not Certain, But Looking Better

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 9:12 am

Don’t get me wrong - I’m loving this week. Everything I said this weekend about all the signs of a bottom being made, I meant from the heart. I went long on a variety of call option trades Monday and Tuesday. As it turns out though, Tuesday was the bottom, meaning I was in a day early. Better early than late though…and definitely better to be a little early in light of yesterday’s monster-sized gain. That’s actually what I wanted to talk about….

I pretty much knew it was brewing, but a 3% (or more) gain for the market is a tough act to follow. Adding to the burden was today’s bullish gap at the open. If it was 1999 or 2003 or 2004, stocks could probably keep going at that blistering pace. We’re still in a bear market though, and stock just don’t move that far that quickly without giving something back.

The indices slipped into the red today, which I think was healthy. They’ve also recovered, which I think is healthy, but I fear could set up some profit-taking tomorrow afternoon. Throw in the fact that options expiration is tomorrow, and I’m wondering if Friday could be a big bearish mess. No big deal if it is; this isn’t a one day game. I just don’t want any of our readers to think get ‘convinced’ of bullishness right at a short-term high.

The healthiest thing I think could happen is actually a weak day today, and a mildly bullish day on Friday. Nobody’s going to feel like taking profits then, and I suspect more buyers will want to jump back on next week when they see this week’s results.

Of course, that’s not how things always work. Lately, it’s not been that way at all. I’ve found the current environment just exhausting, as there is no ‘trend’ to speak of….just jumps. You have to be in a trade the day before to make any real money. That’s not my favorite way of trading, but I don’t aways have a choice. I call it a Jekyll & Hyde mode.

My point is, the current environment pretty much requires you stay on top of things all day long. The rally - I believe - is still on shaky footing. I’d like to see one more good pullback followed by a solid rebound, just to send the message out that yes, this isn’t a fluke.

Stay tuned to the blog, as I know many of you have been. If you had, you would have actually been wildly bullish Wednesday morning when I first mentioned the thing about 1304 new NYSE lows. Perhaps you could have captured the bulk of Wednesday’s gain. Each hour of the next day and a half are just as critical. More this afternoon.

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