Not that three retailers’ results mean everything, but in looking at who did well and who didn’t, I have to wonder if the consumer is just playing dead, or is actually dead. Most spenders say they’re cutting back, but never actually do so. This time around they may be putting they’re money where their mouth…. or I guess not putting their money where their mouth is, as the case may be.

There are a handful of retailers who report later today and tomorrow (like Kohl’s, Nordstrom, Abercrombie and Penneys), so I’ll update this list later on. I want to go ahead and plant the seeds now though - check out how retailers have fared, which is almost entirely a function of top line sales…

                         Actual Quart. EPS        Estimated Quart. EPS       Comp. Quart. 1 Year Ago
Macy’s (M)                 $(0.08)                        $(0.19)                                $0.08
Wal-Mart (WMT)         $0.80                          $0.76                                  $0.70
TJX Cos. (TJX)            $0.54                           $0.55                                  $0.54

Not that Macy’s (M) is uber-high-end, but let’s face it - it’s not a discounter like Wal-Mart (WMT) or TJ Maxx (TJX). I just find it interesting that the brand-name department stores and specialty stores were specifically doing well through the early part of this year, while discount chains were turning in mediocre performance. Then a few weeks ago, all those roles got reversed.

An obvious consequence of a recession? I wouldn’t say so. It seems logical, but in reality consumer spending on high-end goods (the ‘wants’ instead of the ‘needs’) rarely actually tapers off… even if money is tight. So, the ‘value over luxury’ theme is largely a myth - or was a myth. Now it seems to be a reality.

Like I said, a few more stores will be reporting over the next day or so, and might re-paint this picture slightly. It’ll be interesting though… and probably not in a good way.

If the data above is a trend and not just a snapshot, then Wal-Mart is really jerking us around. They actually lowered their Q4 outlook even though Q3 profits were up 10%, and sales were up 7.5%. For most retailers and apparel makers, sales were down significantly last quarter. Liz Claiborne’s (LIZ) sales were lower by 16% last quarter, and Best Buy’s (BBY) revenue fell by 7.6% in October.

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