Geez, all they did was tell the market when they’d be announcing fourth quarter and full year earnings. Yet, Hansen Natural Corporation (HANS) plunged 5.5% today, moving under a couple of key support levels. Not a good omen, and not good for our trade, huh?

Actually, it’s doubtful the announcement or earnings expectations had anything to do with the dip. We attribute about 99% of the selloff in HANS to the market’s action. Unfortunately, fair or not, if the market’s illness infects HANS, then this stock is still apt to sink. It’s a sobering reminder of investing rule #1…. get the market’s direction right first, and think carefully about trying to trade against the grain.

Anyway, we’re optimistic about Hansen’s upcoming results. As we wrote in our original profile issued on February 6th…

In their last reported quarter (ending on September 30th) Hansen managed to improve earnings by 14.5%. Operating margins weigh in at 25.9% over the course of the last year, and net margins were 17.2% for the last twelve months. That’s among the best for any company in most any industry during that time. In terms of valuation, a P/E of 19.3 isn’t dirt cheap, but is reasonable given the company’s growth prospects; the forward-looking P/E (twelve month) is only 13.4….For the last year, the ROE is 39.9%, and the ROA is 28.9%.

One thing we didn’t look at in detail at the time were the specific projections for Q4 earnings, and by default, full-year earnings. Here’s a quick look at that data…

As of right now, the average analyst is looking for Q4 earnings of 42 cents. Adding that estimate to the $1.34 earned so far this year, the full year total earnings should come in at $1.76.

It’s worth mentioning that analysts have been off - by too much as well as not enough - for the four prior quarters. So, don’t be shocked if Hansen reports something besides 42 cents. It’s also worth mentioning that the company earned 51 cents and 54 cents in the last two quarters (respectively). and earned 45 cents in Q4 of 2007. So, the bar is actually set pretty low here. If Hansen still falls short, it could be a problem.

So do we dump it before we have to find out something the hard way? No.

The company has been doing well despite several challenges, and we have to wonder if the marketwide weakness is doing us a favor in front of the earnings news by setting the stock up for a rebound. The risk/reward scenario - we think, anyway - still favors holding onto these shares. The $30.30 area is a big line in the sand for us.

Anyway, we’ll know the good or bad news after the market closes on Thursday, the 26th. Here’s the webcast information from the press release:

Hansen Natural Corporation (NasdaqGS:HANS) announced today that results for its fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2008 will be released on Thursday, February 26, 2009 after the close of the market. The company also said that chairman and chief executive officer Rodney Sacks and vice chairman and president Hilton Schlosberg will host an investor conference call that same day at 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time to review the company’s financial results and operations.

The call will be open to all interested investors through a live audio Web broadcast via the Internet at http://www.hansens.com and http://www.opencompany.info. For those who are not able to listen to the live broadcast, the call will be archived for approximately one year on both Websites.

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