Technically we’re still in the ‘too soon to call’ stage, but if I had to venture a guess right now I’d say the next few days may be trouble for stocks. Oil looks like it hit a short-term bottom, and the dollar looks like it hit a short-term top…two things stocks can’t really afford to deal with right now. So, add that to the bearish forecast I published this morning about the Russell 2000.

Friday’s low near $110 for crude pretty much tagged that key Fib retracement line - a 61.8% retracement - but we’d seen the downtrend get slower as that level was approached.

The dollar had worked its way into an overbought situation as well. The U.S. Dollar Index peaked at 77.25 on Friday, and so far today we’ve only seen a lower range. However, now that we’ve seen the dollar index pause here, the reason has presented itself. Take a look at where the U.S. Dollar Index topped out a couple of times in February. It was right around 75…where we are now. The dollar’s bulls can’t risk a repeat of that short-term high, so they’re probably apt to start trickling out.

All of these things should weigh in on stocks. Hence, I have even more conviction with my bearish argument from this morning.

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