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Small Cap Network Blog

5/28/2009

Small Cap Airline Stocks Hitting a Headwind - SKYW, ALGT, AAWW, HA

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 6:53 am

Why should the last month be any different for small cap airlines than the last year and half has been?

The S&P Small Cap Airline Index [technically, only SkyWest (SKYW)] is off by more than 14% for the month; it’s also one of the biggest losers for the last six months. Oh, and did I mention this chart is trapped in a bearish trading range, and just recently pulled back from the upper edge of that zone?

Yeah, it’s certainly not looking too good on a technical basis.

I want to like this group. I really do. Many of these companies are actually very well run, and some are even profitable. Plus, with oil still at tolerable prices, I’d like to think these companies (and by extension, their stocks) would finally get some relief. So far though, no dice.

SkyWest is the only airline in the S&P 600, but just for the sake of completeness, I want to broaden my look out to its peers that are part of the Russell 2000. I think they’re all on the same boat, errr….plane.

So what’s the deal? Numbers don’t lie. Take a look at the fundamental snapshot, and you’ll see losses…. lots of ‘em.

Is it the economy? Perhaps, though some airlines managed to squeeze out a profit, so I don’t want to give the whole industry a free pass. No, like I said above, some of these companies are well run…. while some aren’t. Unfortunately, the well-run airlines are being torpedoed by the poorly-run ones. Since they tend to move as a herd, I can’t get excited about any of them until the economy lets up enough to let even the bad ones get on their feet again.

If you absolutely must go fishing though, Allegiant Travel Co. (ALGT), SkyWest, and Atlas Air Group Inc. (AAWW) seem to be bright spots now and looking forward. Unfortunately, only one of those company’s stocks looks technically decent…. Atlas Air Group is managing to fly through the bearish headwind.

Hawaiian Holdings Inc. (HA) is getting some love from the market as well, but there’s not a lot of information or coverage of the company, so it’s hard to say if their worst is behind them. Maybe that’s a good thing though… maybe we don’t want to know.

If you thought this commentary and insight was useful, then you need to know it’s not even the ‘good stuff’. Sign up for our free e-newsletter, and we’ll keep you on top of every major industry trend that develops. For the very best ones, we’ll even make specific trading suggestions, complete with entry and exit notifications.

Yesterday’s Worst Small Caps Could Get Even Worse - AGP, CHSI, MOH, DEL, UFPI

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 6:26 am

Not that it was a great day for any sector, size, or industry, but a couple of small cap groups really got whacked on Wednesday. In some cases (too many?) I think the shellacking is a hint of - and part of - a longer-term shellacking that’s best left untouched, unless you’re looking to short some stocks. Here’s yesterday’s bottom of the small cap barrel.

Life & Health Insurance

The S&P Small Cap Life & Health Index rolled over a few weeks ago after a solid March/May rally. I don’t see any particular clue from this chart that the group’s going to find a rebound point anywhere or anytime soon.

As for which stocks these are, we’re talking about AmeriGroup Corp. (AGP), Catalyst Health Solutions Inc. (CHSI), Molina Healthcare Inc, (MOH), and a few others. Pretty much all their charts look the same - overextended through May, and now entering a corrective phase.

Could sheer fundamental performance nip this technical pullback in the bud?

Though you could make a decent case for a couple of exceptions, I don’t see anything big in the way of results that would actually matter… the stocks are plenty cheap as is. The forward-looking P/Es and estimates look even better. Nobody cares though - and that’s the problem. Maybe nobody trusts the estimates. Or, maybe investors are weary of too many consecutive ‘one time charges’. Doesn’t really matter… the stocks are falling despite being cheap.

When it’s all said and done though, I’ve still got insurance stocks on my short list of ultra-values for long term (5 years +) portfolios. I’m just waiting for a bottom.

Forest Products

Owning small cap forestry and wood stocks - which only entails Deltic Timber Corp. (DEL) and Universal Forest Products Inc. (UFPI) - has been brutal this month. The S&P Small Cap Forest Products Index is down 21.4% for the month, and the month isn’t even over yet.

Like the life and health insurance rollover, there’s really not a lot of technical evidence that a rebound is in the cards anytime soon. This was one of those slow, methodical moves that tends to put things into motion for a while.

As far as values are concerned, frankly, I’m surprised either of these stocks managed to rally at all in March. If the analyst estimates are right…. no wait, scratch that. Even if the companies drum up half the earnings analysts think they will over the next twelve months, these stocks will still be stupidly expensive.

Steer clear of Deltic and Universal Forest, unless something amazing happens… which I’m not planning on.

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5/20/2009

Unusual Penny Stock Volume Alert - REVU, SPP, XING, ARGL

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 2:01 pm

Wednesday gave us another good looking batch of penny stock ideas. These were put on our radar because of highly unusual trade volume, some of which was prompted without any news at all.

We specifically exclude high-volume stocks that have significantly gapped in either direction, as those tend to offer no real trade-worthy clues. The tickers that made this list are apt to be your better trading opportunities, as the bulk of any potential move likely hasn’t happened yet. None of these are official trades per se, but all of them are worth keeping an eye on.

Princeton Review Inc. (REVU)

Today’s volume was ten times the norm, though on no news. Even with 11.8% gain during the session, REVU remains a big loser since September…. the stock did NOT rally with the rest of the market over the last eight weeks. Clearly somebody knows something. Note, however, that the penny stock was retreating in the after-hours session.

Sappi Ltd. (SPP)

Today’s half-million shares that traded hands isn’t all that unusual compared to the last two weeks, but it’s leaps and bounds above the norm. The stock’s been rising along with that increased trade. No real reason has been uncovered - odds are the African paper maker is simply responding to the likelihood of a rebounding economy. If you like emerging markets, this may be an interesting penny stock play.

Qiao Xing Universal Telephone Inc. (XING)

Today’s 531K shares wasn’t the biggest volume day of late, but it was one if them…. and it was an accumulation day accenting the broad gain since early March. Could we be seeing an upside-down head and shoulders pattern? There was no news to prompt today’s 8% gain.

Argyle Security, Inc. (ARGL.OB)

We saw a huge volume increase from Argyle today… well above the norm for this penny stock. ARGL hit new highs for the year, and topped a prior resistance level around 80 cents. No news today, but at 1/10th its early 2008 price, Argyle is an interesting prospect after today’s explosion. Hint: The valuation model (even if guesses based on forward-looking estimates) seems to be a hot button here.

That’s it for now, but a new batch pops up every day. Check back tomorrow.
Ideas and data are fine, but they’re not how you make money in the market. You need specific, actionable recommendations. Sign up for our free newsletter, and you’l get ‘em 2 to 3 times per week. Check out today’s edition.

AMAG Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AMAG) - A High Risk, High Reward Shorting Opportunity

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 9:00 am

Don’t try to rationalize this bearish idea too much - it’s simply a trade based more on the chart and less on the stock’s value. It’s just an idea I thought was interesting enough to mention it in the blog, but a little too risky to add it to our list of newsletter-recommended trades (which has a wider audience).

From a fundamental perspective, AMAG Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AMAG) looks fairly compelling. The FDA accepted a new drug application (feraheme) request a few days ago.

However, the stock is technically overbought, and this may be a great example of what they mean by “buy the rumor, sell the news”.

The market knew the request’s acceptance was likely, and ran the stock up (before the announcement was made) through May 12th… the last day of the rally. As of May 13th (after the news was known), every day has been a struggle just to hold the stock up. In fact, we’ve seen lower lows and mildly lower closes since then - an omen of what traders are quietly thinking. It’s likely to get worse before it gets better, as profit taking becomes more of a necessity than a choice.

No matter what though, there’s a time limit on any downtrend. At the very most you don’t want to be in a short trade on AMAG past June 29th, and maybe even before that. That’s the expected deadline for an FDA decision regarding feraheme for a different medical use.

The decision could possibly come sooner though, so be careful. In the meantime though, there’s a lot of ground to retrace following a hype-based rally.

If you’re not receiving the free Small Cap Network e-newsletter, then you’re not receoving enough great trading ideas like this one. Sign up today.

Unusual Volume Alert: Stocks to Watch Today - ITRI, CPL

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 7:01 am

Below you’ll find stocks that traded on unusually high volume yesterday with little to no news to prompt the volume surge. In most cases, there was little to no change (relative to the volume) in the stock’s price either… which makes the volume spike even more unusual.

Though many of these anomalous days turn out to be meaningless, sometimes, there is indeed something bigger going on that ends up being tradeworthy. Consider these volume clues your advance warning of such an announcement, which could drive a stock much lower or much higher.

Itron Inc. (ITRI)

We saw 2.5 million shares trade hands on Tuesday, which was nearly 300% more than average. Itron actually closed more than a little higher (+12%), though that’s not outlandish in the grand scheme of things.

CPGL Energia S.A. (CPL)

Yesterday’s 210,000 shares wasn’t crazy, but it was a tad off given the recent lull in interest. CPL sank pretty precipitously too, as it has been for a few days…. perhaps an effort to rollover? The problems all seemed to start on the 14th, which was the same day the company announced earnings.

That’s it for now - just the two. Be sure to check back later, as Wednesday’s list is already shaping up to be a lot longer, and contain several maore actionable ideas.

Trading ideas and red flags are great, but if you want specific trade recommendations, then you want to sign up for the free e-newsletter.

China Distance Education Holdings Ltd. (DL) - Takin’ Care of Business

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 6:05 am

You know, almost every single trade we’ve still got on the table is doing at least ok, with several of them doing incredibly well (like the 27% gain we’ve got on BBVA Banco Frances S.A., or the 63% gain we’re sitting on with Socialwise). In fact, there’s only one thorn in my side…. China Distance Education Holdings Ltd. (DL).

After the a complete breakdown on May 4th we had good reason to believe this remote-schooling stock was going to follow in the footsteps of fellow education stocks Apollo Group Inc. (APOL) and ITT Educational Services Inc. (ESI), and start passing along worries of bad debt and dwindling growth in enrollments.

On Friday after the market closed the company turned in quarterly earnings of 4 cents per share, topping estimates of 2 cents per share. That’s why the stock went hog wild on Monday.

But was it really good news? On the surface, sure, but why did Oppenheimer roll back their opinion dial on the company? A closer look reveals actual revenue - in dollars - came in at half of last year’s comparables. The same goes for net income.

I still contend this entire industry is already fully valued and then some, and there’s only downside left to price in. Thus, I remain bearish on DL despite Monday’s surge… I just don’t think the market ‘gets it’.

Nevertheless, the market can stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent. It’s time to add some protection here in the form of a stop loss.

At this point, I really wouldn’t want to risk the effects of a trade above $5.95. Such a trade could spark some more ‘I told you so’ buying, and the stock could rally to $7.00 before it was all said and done. Placing a stop somewhere around $6.00 gives us a chance to stay in the trade and enjoy the downside potential while still letting us get out of things get even stranger.

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5/18/2009

Take Some Profits on Penny Stock SpongeTech Delivery Systems, Inc. (SPNG)

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 7:59 am

The ‘all or nothing’ mentality is alive and kickin’ for followers and fans of penny stocks SpongeTech Delivery Systems, Inc. (SPNG). The stock gapped open this morning, jumping from Friday’s close (and high) of 3.6 cents to today’s open (and low) of 4.0 cents. Never a dull moment.

First of all, I really, really hope some of you did indeed jump into the breakout after the ceiling at 3.0 cents was cracked, as I described on Thursday.

With that in mind - and as much as I hate to do this - with a price of 4.6 cents staring me in the face along with today’s gap, I now recommend taking some profits.

I hate that too. I’d much rather see SPNG gain a tenth of a cent a day for 30 straight trading days, as that kind of trend is sustainable. This ridiculous volatility means the stock can and will turn on a dime though. It could be trading at 6 cents tomorrow, or back to 2 cents. Weighing the choice, I’ll take a potentially-smaller gain to abate my risk.

And just to be clear, the risk here is temporary. Once this penny stock is reeled in a bit, I have no reason to think we won’t see the same pattern play out again…back to a higher low, then on to a higher high.

For you true long-term investors, this is a judgment call.

By the way (and this is important for all of us), note that today’s peak at 5.3 cents was also the prior peak from the middle of last year. I suspect that’s where a bunch of players had selles/exits set to trigger, so I’m not shocked. If we can crack the 5.3 cents mark, away we go again.

By the way, if you’re looking for some other penny stocks on the verge if similar moves, check out “Penny Stocks to Watch Today“.

Have you been missing out on getting the most our of SpongeTech Delivery Systems, Inc. (SPNG) and its ebbs and flows? Stop giving up profits! Sign up for the free e-newsletter today.

ideaEDGE Inc. (IDAE) Now Known as Socialwise Inc. (SCLW)

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 6:03 am

In case you were wondering why our penny stock pick ideaEDGE Inc. (IDAE) went to, it didn’t go anywhere…. it just changed its name. Just a couple of days after we bought in, the company adopted the name Socialwise Inc., with a new ticker of ‘SCLW’. Nothing else changed about the company - the share price didn’t change through a split or restructure either.

Though we don’t care about the reason, we do like the way the market responded to the new moniker. We picked IDAE on the 11th, when it was trading at 57 cents. Now it’s at 88 cents… a 54% gain. While the odds are good we’ll see some sort of pullback after such a hefty runup, we’ve got some profits to protect now.

On that note, however, DO PROTECT THOSE PROFITS! This is what I was talking about in the newsletter from the 13th… when there’s a profit cushion given to you, apply a stop-loss that lets you stay in a trade if it keeps chugging along, but gets you out of a trade if the stock takes an adverse turn. For Socialwise, that stop would be somewhere above 57 cents but below 88 cents.

As a rule of thumb, you might want to place profit-protection stops at the midpoint of the move. SCLW’s profit ‘midpoint’ for our trade is at 72 cents. As the profit widens, you can raise the bar accordingly. This gives you plenty of room to survive a little volatilty, but sill locks in a nice gain if the stock sinks precipitously.

Note that we won’t always be able to specify stop-losses on our picks; you’ll have to do that on your own in most cases.

If you missed out on this 54% gain (so far) on our Socialwise Inc. (SCLW) penny stock pick, it’s because you aren’t getting the free Small Cap Network newsletter. Sign up today.

5/14/2009

Time to Pull the Plug - Exit Trades on COPY, PKT, ICA, GTCB, SOEN

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 1:46 pm

What’s the number one rule in trading? Never let a small loss turn into a big one. We’ve got five stock picks we want to go ahead and pull the plug on as soon as possible. They’re all either not making enough progress, or aren’t making progress at all. Considering we’ve still got about 30 open trades out there, we can afford to shed some without giving up much exposure.

In not particular order, here are our latest exit recommendations…

CopyTele Inc. (COPY.OB)

We thought CopyTele shares would might consolidate between 34 cents and 39 cents for a while before making the next big jump, but the support at 34 cents broke down today. The chart hasn’t gotten ugly yet, but we don’t need the trade and its likely mediocrity taking up our time and focus. Sell it.

Procera Networks, Inc. (PKT)

Note that we’re going to keep this one on the radar, as the underlying story is so compelling. However, after watching it slide from $1.08 to $0.77 over the last week or so, the smart thing to do is make an exit, stand back, and wait for the right re-entry point. Sell it, but keep it on your watchlist.

Empresas ICA, S.A.B. de C.V. (ICA)

This one just never got off the ground. There’s nothing wrong with the company - the interest foreign construction simply faded shortly after it was stirred up. Sell it.

GTC Biotherapeutics, Inc. (GTCB)

A big breakdown Wednesday followed through with more breakdown on Thursday. There’s no need to stand in front of an oncoming train. Sell it. By the way, the catalyst for the selling was poor earnings… surprise surprise (though we guessed wrong too).

Solar Enertech Corp. (SOEN.OB)

We don’t mind a little up and down from a stock that’s exhibited that pattern before. We just need to see more up than down…which we haven’t from Solar Enertech lately. If 18 cents breaks down as a support level, there’s nothing to catch the stock until 12 cents, and that’s a chance we can’t take. Sell it.

If you want specific, actionable trading ideas to put some punch into your portfolio, you want the Small Cap Network newsletter. It’s free, and delivered two to three times per week. Stop missing opportunities - sign up today.

Penny Stock SpongeTech Delivery Systems, Inc. (SPNG) Hitting a Wall

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 8:32 am

The saga of SpongeTech Delivery Systems, Inc. (SPNG) continues, though it’s been an interesting story the whole time. The latest chapter for this penny stock has SPNG hitting a wall of resistance at 3 cents despite three distinct attempts to knock it down. If shares can clear that hurdle, life could get much easier for SpongeTech’s investors.

OK, enough poetics…..the chart below really does tell the story. SPNG rallied right up to 3 cents today, as it did on the 8th as well as April 3rd. So far though, we’ve not seen this penny stock manage to break above three cents. On the flip side, we have seen the stock continue to make higher lows ever since somebody lit a fire under the stock in late March. (See chart below.)

So getting past the 3 cent mark is the key? Yeah, I think it’s a big part of it. On the other hand, I have to voice my concerns.

I always get a little skeptical when a stock moves from 1 cent to 3 cents in four days, and from 1.5 cents to 3 cents in about a week. The latest trip from a low of 1.7 cents to 3 cents took about a week as well. That’s just a little too much volatile bullishness for my comfort.

I love breakouts, but breakouts that last tend to be born out of long consolidation periods. We’ve not seen any consolidation from this penny stock - just a crapload of volatility.

That’s not to say I won’t jump on it if SPNG cracks the 3 cent ceiling. I’m just saying a breakout would be apt to have longevity if there was a little more of a wind-up. Still, you gotta’ like the action.

As for a ‘value’, I still contend the stock’s worth something around 20 cents, based on what we know now. The company’s been growing sales and earnings like I manage to grow weeds (a lot), but has also been trading company stock to finance the promotions and advertising to drive those sales. The per-share benefit of all the dilution is still positive though, and by my math and the most recent sales guidance, I think a near-term target around 20 cents is fair.

That said, hopefully you’ve not fallen into the trap of thinking that stocks trade at their ‘value‘. They don’t. Penny stocks in particular are subject to the market’s whims. Eventually, yeah, SPNG’s pricing might make sense. I’ll be trading the ebb and flow in the meantime. Watch the 3 cent mark until further notice.

Information is one thing; turning it into money is another. The SmallCapNetwork is different than other media sources, because we give you specific, actionable ideas you can use to make money in the market. Sign up today to get more of this great commentary. 

Penny Stock Applied DNA Sciences Inc. (APDN) Revving Its Engine Again

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 7:38 am

If you like tennis, you’re going to love Applied DNA Sciences’ (APDN) action recently…. lots of back and forth, with each ebb and flow being trade-worthy. Following today’s announcement that a patent application had been filed, it looks like the stock is gearing up for its third big rally since February.

The hint is simply strength. The penny stock’s up 13% today, and is up 43% from the low point (8 cents) following the prior surge to a peak of 17 cents. Both of the big rallies we’ve witnessed in recent months started out as small rallies, largely inspired by the news. This one isn’t likely to be different. (see chart below)

As for how for this penny stock might fly this trip, it’s tough to say. Shares quadrupled in the February bump (from high to low), and the stock quadrupled again between its March low and April peak. If the pattern stays true and APDN once again quadruples the previous low of 8 cents, we’re talking about a move to 32 cents. However, that may be a little lofty…. it’s easier to rally from 3 cents to 12 cents than it is to rally from 8 cents to 32 cents.

On the other hand, we think the ingredients are right for another big push higher. After all, APDN is clearly making higher highs and higher lows now.

Realistically, a move to 22 cents this time around would be a good goal. That’s been resistance for this chart before. Then again, so has 17 cents, so keep your guard up if we start to get traction. And as always, apply defensive stops if you’re trading penny stocks like this one.

By the way, we’re seeing some of the strongest volume we’ve ever seen from Applied DNA’s buyers. They got a little overzealous in April, but the interest is certainly there. That’s a strong hint that ebb and flow will stay net bullish.

And the reason for today’s push? The company filed a patent on the combination of SigNature DNA and Cyanoacrolyte. Yes, it’s good news in a way, though the market may be getting jazzed without even really knowing why.

A patent application doesn’t mean a patent has been granted. And even if one is granted, it could be months before it’s awarded. Even then, owning a patent doesn’t generate revenue - the company still has to go out there and sell the product. So, for you fundamental investors out there looking for the ‘aha’ catalyst that will unlock the stock’s true value, this isn’t it. It’s a start, but the finish line is still miles away.

Traders, however, are enjoying the ride in the meantime.

If you want specific, actionable commentary on penny stocks like Applied DNA Sciences Inc. (APDN), you need to sign up for our free e-newsletter.

5/11/2009

How and Where to Get Our Stock Picks

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 5:11 am

After we published last Thursday’s “profit taking” edition, we got a few questions we figured were worth answering in a public forum. Specifically, our readers wanted to know how and where they could get the entry recommendations to go along with the exit/profit recommendations they were reading about at the time. Here’s the answer.

First of all, a brief update….

We plan on rolling out a lot more picks in the future, with a bunch of them from the penny stock world. Take the ones you like, and ignore the ones you don’t. We just figured that’s what you guys want more of, so we’re going to deliver.

HOWEVER, more picks does not mean to expect less of the great commentary and market insight you’ve been getting this whole time.

To answer the question though, all of our recent stock picks have appeared in the blog, and/or in a press release. They’re pretty will publicized, though clearly it can pay to check the blog on a regular basis. We can’t send out as many e-mails as we can post blog entries.

But….
We’re going to re-format the e-newsletter to still include our detailed market commentary as well our very favorite small cap picks and trades. However, we’re also going to start listing the bulk of our trading ideas in the newsletter, though without vivid descriptions; we’ll link back to the chart and rationale for those who want to read them. (And for those who don’t care to take those trades, they’re not going to crowd the newsletter - everybody wins.)

The whole thing is still a work in progress, and may change from time to time as we figure out the optimal way of delivering trading ideas without inundating your inbox. Please bear with us, and also bear in mind it’s going to be great when it’s done.

On that note though, for those of you who don’t want to miss a thing, and want it all as timely as possible….

The fastest way to get everything we say or think is through Twitter, or through our RSS feed (note we have a blog RSS feed as well as one for the newsletter - be sure to get both). As fast as e-mail is, Twitter and RSS are faster in addition to being more reliable.

If you’re not yet a subscriber to our free stock-picking newsletter (nor a Twitter or RSS subscriber), you’re losing money. Sign up today, and you’ll start profiting from all our winning trades.

5/7/2009

Penny Stock Alerts - AKE, LF, ENAB, CLTH, ES, AMPL

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 5:30 pm

Not a whole lot for today, so we’re combining our short-term picks with our long-term picks… and note that some of the short-term breakout trades aren’t even full-blown trades yet. We still want to see something else happen on their charts before we can say it’s safe to pull the trigger.

(Click on the company name/ticker to view a chart that isn’t displayed.)

- Penny Stock Picks (Longer-Term) -

Safety First Gib PPN (AKE)

Careful here, as volume is fairly thin. However, the trend has definitely taken a course for the better. MACD turned positive a few weeks ago, and we saw a wave of buying on Thursday - somebody wants in.

Interestingly (perhaps oddly), there’s no news for this stock….none. Maybe that’s a good thing.

LeapFrog Enterprises Inc. (LF)

Honestly, the recent uptrend is so nice, it’s a little scary. The volume surge over the last three days could be a blowoff top, even if a temporary one. Still, when eying where this thing was and where it’s pointed again now….geez it makes you salivate.

Here’s what wer’e thinking - don’t bother jumping in now. Let’s go ahead and and concede, wait for a pullback, and then revisit the chart. Ideally we’ll see support being made around the 20 day moving average line (blue), and then then bulls will dig in again. And, if support isn’t made, we’ll do nothing.

- Penny Stock Breakout Trades (Short-Term) -

Enable Holdings Inc. (ENAB)

This isn’t a trade yet… just something to watch going forward.

ENAB has been consolidating for a looooong time between 2 cents and 5 cents. During that time though, we’ve seen several major consolidation days. Eventually the sellers will run dry, and the buyers can get real traction. A move above resistance at 5 cents is the likely flag for a strong breakout.

Clean Tech Biofuels Inc. (CLTH)

We love the move; we hate the fact that there was no volume behind it. Therefore, this one is also not a trade yet…. just a notice of something to watch.

Frankly, we’d rather see Clean Tech shares reeled all the way in, regroup, and then restart with some better volume (and at a more reasonable pace). And now that somebody has tipped their hand, it’s likely.

There’s zero news behind the move… not even a rumor. Suspicious? You bet, though not necessarily in a bad way.

- Shorting Ideas (which are inherently short-term) -

Energy Solutions Inc. (ES)

We saw a major breakdown today… one that may be tough to undo now that so much damage has been done. We don’t recommend piling on ASAP though. Sit back and observe for a while, and go with the flow once the volatility eases up. We suspect the downtrend will get rolling then, but we’re not making that bet in the meantime.

Ampal-American Israel Corp. (AMPL)

The last few days aren’t anything we haven’t seen from AMPL’s chart before. The 20 day average line (thin, blue) is resistance. we saw a major pullback after an incredible surge, and an intermediate-term support line (thick, blue) is coming into play again. And, it’s that support line that’s keeping us on the fence for now.

In short, of Ampal slides under that support, we’ll view it as a bearish event. If it doesn’t, we’ll keep our powder dry. The one compelling part (for the bears) we see now that we haven’t seen with similar moves is strong selling volume.

This’ll be interesting either way.

That’s it for today, though be sure to check back early and often. We’ve always got more brewing.

Trading ideas are great, but if you want specific picks with the ‘ins’ and ‘outs’, you have to sign up for our free newsletter. Our readers locked in a 64% gain on The Dixie Group (DXYN) this week on a trade that lasted only four days. You can’t afford to miss our next big money-maker. Sign up today.

5/6/2009

U.S. Steel (X), Alcoa (AA), Allegheny Technologies (ATI) - Sector Rotation Part Deux

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 6:15 pm

I really hope you’ve been closely following our sector rotation theme of late. If you have, not only have you learned a lesson (I think the second most important idea any trader or investor can grasp), but you’ve also made some great money.

I want to stick with the focus on metal and mining stocks for the time being, as they’re a great platform to teach from, and we also have a new action item - profit taking - for those of you who heeded our advice from March 19th.

We went bullish on the metal and mining stocks back on February 14th, when the S&P 500 Metal and Mining Index started to make gains that far exceeded the rest of the market’s. We reiterated the call on March 4th, as the performance of these stocks was improving. Our individual stock picks at the time were Rio Tinto PLC (RTP) and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX). Click on the nearby thumbnail image to see a full-size chart of what we were seeing at the time. And, click here to see why we chose RTP and FCX.

That’s lesson number one…. focus on the best industries and the best stocks first.

Most stocks are only mediocre most of the time. A sector rotation strategy is designed to find the exceptional stock trends.

And, it paid off… we were able to lock in some big gains on March 19th when several of these stocks gapped up at the open. Freeport and many of the other names in the group were up between 20% and 30% by that time. Click on the other nearby thumbnail image to see how things had changed between mid-February and mid-March (and why we took profits).

Enter lesson number two… lock in profits when it makes sense to do so.

Not everybody wanted to bail out of the industry then, which is fine. Most folks did though, as FCX and RTP (along with some other stocks) were just too overbought to leave ‘em hanging in the wind.

But what if the sector/industry trend is still going strong? Well, it was at the time, so it’s not like we wanted to abandon metal and mining stocks altogether. In fact, this is what we specifically said in the profit-taking alert from March 19th:

“…….the previous bottom dwellers in this group like U.S. Steel (X), Alcoa (AA), and Allegheny Technologies (ATI) are probably your better bets for the group’s next bullish wave….. intra-industry rotation forces are telling me we need to look for other ideas in the group to tap into once these stocks dip a bit and start another upside move.”

Did you get that? X, AA, and ATI were the weakest of the industry’s stocks before, but given the way stocks work in the real world, those names were apt to be the groups next big winners.

Take a look at the metal and mining stocks’ performance since we made that statement on March 19th. [This is a percentage-change chart, as we want to compare relative performance.]

Three of the top five performers after we updated our industry call were the same stocks that had been dragging the bottom prior to the update. That’s the third lesson.

Lesson number three… there’s rotation even within a sector. Just like sectors turn hot and cold, so too do the stocks in a sector.

Well, guess what it’s time to do? It’s time to employ lesson number two - take profits when it makes sense to do so.

If you took our advice from March 19th and bought U.S. Steel (X), Alcoa (AA), and Allegheny Technologies (ATI) to replace Freeport McMoRan or Allegheny, you’re now up 49%, 63%, and 75%, respectively. The S&P 500 Diversified Metals and Mining Stock Index surged today, which we think will mark a short-term top for all these charts. So, we recommend you sell X, AA, and ATI if you bought them in March.

As before, the overall uptrend is still alive for the group, and we’ll shop for the laggards when it looks like the index has bottomed. For now though, we just want to take the money off the table.

While this certainly puts our stock-picking acumen in a positive light, I didn’t post this simply to boast. My goal was to illustrate just why sector rotation is such a big deal, and why I spend so much time talking about sectors and industries. Picking a rising stock or shorting a falling stock isn’t good enough. You want to buy the BEST, and short the WORST stocks.

If you’re messing around with mediocre or weak trends, you’re not getting paid enough for the risk you’re taking. I’m convinced investors could double their returns simply by focusing on the highest quality trends like this one.

Just for the record, the only other sector/industry trends I’m following right now are the demise of education stocks, and biotech’s woes. Both of those have been very profitable - bearishly - as well.

Are you missing out on the kind of detailed sector rotation analysis that actually makes you money (like what you just read)? If you’re relying on television, newspapers, or magazines to help you navigate the market, you’re getting worthless help. Sign up for our free newsletter today, and start getting this kind of profitable information immediately.

5/5/2009

Penny Stock Breakout Trades - ORMP, COPY, OSP, EGOV

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 10:27 pm

We had a few more short-term penny stock recommendations than usual today, so we’ve split our breakout list from our longer-term list. This is the short-term idea list, which are trades designed to move far and fast, but not for very long. Therefore holding periods are measured in days, if not hours. (Needless to say, if you’re trading these penny stock picks, you’ll want to be nimble.

If you also want to add something a little more tame and longer-term to your penny stock portfolio, be sure to take a look at today’s Penny Stock Pick list.

On with the recommendations, in no particular order….

050609ormp.gifOramed Pharmaceutical (ORMP)

The stock popped on relatively benign Phase II news yesterday, though it may have been enough to fully shake off any dead weight ORMP has been lugging around.

As you’ll see on the chart, Tuesday’s final “umph” made a pretty decisive statement about the long downtrend being bucked.

050609copy.gifCopyTele Inc. (COPY)

Huge volume yesterday, then the stock partially retreated from its high. That’s ok though - the damage has already been done (for the better). If you look closely, you’ll see the moving averages that were formerly resistance are now acting as support.

The bears took their shot, and didn’t kill the stock. We’re looking for the buying to resume now.

050609osp.gifOSG America L.P. (OSP)

Note this is a bearish trade. So, you’ll only be able to do anything about this idea in a margin account with shorting privileges. Needless to say, be careful - shorting is infinitely dangerous. Anyway…

There’s something suspicious about two modest selloffs in a row, and HUGE volume. Monday’s loss was an outside day (a major sign of reversal), while Tuesday’s losing bar was an inside day (also a sign of a bearish reversal). We’d be very surprised if these last two days weren’t a clue of a bomb that’s going to be dropped in the near future.

050609egov.gifNIC Inc. (EGOV)

Lots of buying volume on Tuesday, but no real progress from the stock (at least none that wasn’t in place on Monday)? Hmmm. The stock’s already in a nice uptrend, but seems to be testing the waters at $5.75. Based on other factors, we recommend getting in prior to any breakout effort here.

NIC reported solid number on Monday, and they’re expected to get better in 2009.

Strong company results? A rising stock? Reasonable valuations? Stranger things have happened.

That’s it for now, but check back tomorrow - we’ve always got more coming down the pike.

Did you miss out on a 70% gain in Clearwater Paper Corp. (CLW) shares this week? Our readers didn’t. Did you not lock down a 72% profit on Sunrise Solar Corp. (SSLR) in two days? Our readers did. Don’t miss out again - sign up for our free newsletter today.

Penny Stock Picks - CCFH, TAM, SIM, GLBC

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 10:22 pm

We had more penny stock picks than usual today (short-term and long-term), so we’ve broken out our usual list and commentary into two. This one’s the longer-term pick list, which are intended to be held for days to weeks… and should be a relatively modest rise by penny stock standards.

If you’re looking for shorter-term recommendations, be sure to visit today’s Penny Stock Breakout Trade picks.

In no particular order, here are Wednesday’s longer-term penny stock recommendations….

050609ccfh.gifCCF Holding Co. (CCFH)

CCF Holding has been working on the slowest recovery in the history of stocks. That’s ok though - the slower the reversal, the longer it lasts.

The momentum started to turn for the better in March, but this turn has something very important other ones didn’t… volume. In fact, it’s the healthiest we’ve seen this stock act since mid-2007 when it was trading above $20.00.

Though we can’t quite see why, somebody’s buying this stock again. Perhaps they know something we don’t. At 95 cents, we can afford to go along for the ride and find out what it is.

050609tam2.gifTAM S.A. (TAM)

This isn’t the only ADR that made today’s list, and we know in the mid-$7.00 range we’re pushing the definition of a penny stock. We just like the combination of the renewed momentum on the chart, Tuesday’s huge volume (perhaps an omen?), and the airline’s ability to manage the business well through the heart of the recession.

The stock’s trading at about 1/3 of its value before the market imploded.

050609sim.gifGrupo Simec S.A.B. de C.V. (SIM)

This Mexican iron and steel company isn’t technically playing host to a penny stock either - SIM shares are above $5.00. But, the upside opportunity is very penny-like. Basically, with swine flu worries winding down and a global stimulus kicking in, infrastructure is at the forefront. That means everyone, everywhere will need building and manufacturing materials.

SIM’s starting to pull out of a long consolidation phase too, breaking resistance and closing at its highest close since November.

(Side note: We picked a Mexican engineering stock in another pick list today.)

050609glbc.gifGlobal Crossing Ltd. (GLBC)

Global Crossing’s Q1 really wasn’t all that impressive, but the market seems to be ok with it. The bears took a swipe, sending the stock all the way back to the 20 day average line yesterday. Then the bulls stepped in again, salvaging most of the decline… with a lot of volume. The rebound simply continues what’s become a long and quiet recovery effort.

We recommend getting in before more resistance lines break. As long as the market doesn’t get completely whacked in the near future, the breakout could take hold within days.

Caution: Global Crossing ain’t gonna’ be profitable anytime soon, so don’t get married to it.

That’s it for today, at least for the longer-term penny stock picks.

If you’re not receiving our free e-newsletter, then you’re not getting our best picks in the fastest manner. We booked a 70% gain in Clearwater Paper (CLW) and a 72% gain on Sunrise Solar (SSLR) earlier this week. Sign up today, and we’ll start delivering you even more specific ins and outs from the penny stock world.

Five Revived Large Caps In Penny Stock Wrappers - GNW, MBI, CENX, HXL, ICA

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 9:03 pm

Though the market is due for a bit of a retreat, astute investors know this isn’t a time to panic, but rather a time to go shopping for bargains. We’ve got five tickers for your consideration today.

These stocks were hand-picked based on a variety of factors, including fundamental, technical, and sentiment. Just bear in mind that the technical criteria we use specifically look for stocks that are truly on the verge of a breakout; you may not have days to mull them over.

Better yet, all five appear to be undervalued, and all five are priced under $10.00. Two of them are under $5.00…. true penny stock pricing. Bargains indeed.

We’ve got some other considerations for you after we look at these five stocks, so be sure to keep reading once you’ve seen all five ideas.

050609gnw.gifGenworth Financial Inc. (GNW)

Don’t look now, but the insurance companies are making a comeback. Genworth is near the front of the pack. The stock is trading at nearly a tenth of what it was a year ago, but appears to be on the mend. And no wonder - the forward-looking P/E is a paltry 2.0.

If volume is any indication, the market caught its collective mistake on Tuesday.

050609mbi.gifMBIA Inc. (MBI)

The stock jumped shortly after the next earnings call was announced, perhaps serving as an omen of what to expect. (Or, it may be a case of “buy the rumor, sell the news”.) At only $5.81 though - and with the stock breaking above resistance - it may be worth the price of entry to see what happens with this stock that nobody, and we mean nobody, says they want to touch… even though it’s more than doubled since early March.

050609cenx.gifCentury Aluminum (CENX)

Here’s an amazing stat…despite Century Aluminum’s 100% rally since late April, the stock is still down 90% since its mid-2008 peak. That spells value, but more importantly, the recent bump suggests the value is being unlocked.

The only drawback we can see with CENX is that it’s very overbought in the short run. Waiting for a pullback may be merited.

050609hxl.gifHexcel Corp. (HXL)

Like Rodney Dangerfield, Hexcel gets no respect. This aerospace and defense contractor has topped earnings estimates for three straight quarters, yet analysts are still not budging on this year’s and next year’s expectations.

The stock’s on a tear too, but volume is still increasing on the way up.

050609ica.gifEmprasas ICA SA (ICA)

This may be one of the biggest companies you’ve never heard of. The Mexican engineering and construction stock took the expected hit with the swine flu scare, but as those fears have subsided, so has the selling. Bigger picture, infrastructure investment is the primary beneficiary of a global stimulus, and Emprasas is well-positioned in the region. The stock’s trading at about 1/3 of its mid-2008 value.

Final Thoughts

So are these ‘trades’, or ‘investments’? Fundamentals are for long-term thinkers, but technical analysis is for short-term traders.

We hate to pigeon-hole any trading idea, as that may prevent you from taking the appropriate profit-taking or stop-loss action should the need arise. But, if we have to categorize them, we’ll lean towards describing them as investments. (We just happen to use technical analysis to optimize our entries and exits into bigger-picture trends.)

With that in mind, there’s only one caveat….. recognize that being 100% committed to a market philosophy in this environment can be pad for your portfolio’s health; flexibility is the key to maximizing your profit and minimizing your losses.

Did you miss out on the 70% gain we booked on Clearwater Paper Corp. (CLW) in less than a week? Did you miss the 72% gain we took on Sunrise Solar Corp. (SSLR) in two days? Did you miss the 22% gain on Boyd Gaming (BYD) and the 20% gain on GlobalScape (GSB)? These were all booked this week. Don’t miss the next one - sign up for the free newsletter today.

Sunrise Solar Corporation (SSLR) - Take 72% Profits, Sell This Penny Stock Now

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 12:22 pm

I hate to do this to you guys this soon, but I think it’s time to make an exit on any Sunrise Solar Corporation (SSLR) shares you may have bought on our recommendation from last Friday. At the time we suggested this penny stock on the 1st, it was trading at 59 cents (it also closed at 59 cents that day). Currently it’s trading at $1.02, which translates into a 72% gain for this penny stock trade.

Normally I’d prefer to just let it ride and let each of you decide for yourself when to get out. However, I just don’t like the shape of today’s chart - it looks like a blowoff, particularly after seeing it retreat back from the intra-day high of $1.29. I hope some of you got out closer to that level, for more than a double.

On a side note, this chart pretty much played out as I expected it to. We saw a huge move in only a few days, but the move was hinted with modest acceleration a few days prior. This surge looked a lot like the one we witnessed in January, September, and July.

I’ll be keeping SSLR on my penny stock radar in case we get the early warning again.

Don’t miss another penny stock alert from the Small Cap Network - you could end up missing out an a gain like the 64% win we just booked on Sunrise Solar Corp. (SSLR). The best way to get our recommended trades and their exits is to sign up for the free newsletter. You can see an example of a recent profit-taking edition here.

5/4/2009

Penny Stock Alerts - BFR, MGEG, OMCY, DL

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 8:18 am

Our “penny stocks worth a look” list isn’t quite as long as usual as we kick off the week, though there are still some interesting ideas on the table.

As always, these penny stocks come to our attention though a variety of proprietary scans designed to pinpoint the most trade-worthy or investment-worthy stocks, while disregarding the mediocre ideas. Though no stock-selection process is perfect, we have found our strategy to be a very efficient ways to find trading ideas for you to review further.

Note: Our penny stock ‘picks’ are generally a longer-term idea, while our penny stock ‘trades’ are likely to have a shorter holding period. There’s crossover from time to time though, so don’t get too rigid in your trading plan.

Also, if you’re going to act on any of these ideas, do so intelligently. Use tight stops, take profits at peaks, etc.  This is still a speculative game, and it’s your money on the line. We may or may not revisit any of these tickers in the future, so it’s up to you to handle them.

We’ve added the most meaningful pieces of information for each of today’s four penny stocks.

- Penny Stock Picks (long term) -

BBVA Banco Frances S.A. (BFR)

We’ve now seen two unexplained volume surges over the last three days, made as part of a pretty reliable uptrend. In other words, we think the volume was buying volume, as the stock didn’t falter. There was no news behind the volume surge either.

BBVA is just one of those undiscovered penny stocks that the market is slowly - very slowly - finding. The P/E of 5.64 is attractive, and the company has made a habit of topping analyst’s expectations. This year’s and next year’s bar may still be set too low to boot. It could just be one of those micro companies (foreign, no less) that quietly makes its owners a fortune while nobody’s looking.

MGMT Energy, Inc. (MGEG)

Slow and steady wins the race, and we’ve seen just that from MGMT Energy. Support has been made pretty consistently while the stock has moved from the low $3’s to the high $3’s. It was today’s high-volume break above the ceiling at $3.75 that got our attention though….on no news (that we could find anyway). It could be the beginning of another bullish wave, with the news behind it all to be announced later.

- Penny Stock Trades (short term) -

Omnicity, Corp. (OMCY)

This is a tough one. The trend is bullish, and today’s volume is bullish. However, we’re actually thinking this thing could turn BEARISH in a hurry.

What gives? The stock has made little to no progress despite a massive increase in volume of late. Perhaps for every buyer, there’s a willing seller. If potential buyers see the stall and back of from their ask price, the bottom could drop out. Or, OMCY could break through resistance at 73 cents (fueled by lots of volume) and explode to the upside.

We think there’s tons of ’swing’ opportunity here….it’s just not clear in which direction yet. Keep it on your radar, but be ready to move quickly.

China Distance Education Holdings Limited (DL)

This is a bearish play (a shorting idea, if your broker allows you to short stocks under $5.00).

Basically, we find it a little ironic that the same day the company provided a firm date for last quarter’s earnings conference call is the same day the stock started to fall apart. The 7.6% dip is the worst daily showing in months; plenty of technical damage was inflicted too. We can’t help but wonder if earnings numbers were leaked, and it turns out that China’s for-profit schools are starting to experience the same problems U.S. distance-learning and for-profit schools are. Today’s not a good omen for the bulls.

This is just a small sample of the kinds of great penny stock and small cap trading ideas you can get by subscribing to our free newsletter. Don’t miss your next chance to make some serious money. Sign up today and start profiting tomorrow.

5/1/2009

Penny Stock Trades - HDY, ARBX, SSLR, DXYN, ANPI, ELRA

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 9:58 am

Some more penny stock plays popped up on Friday. As always, we view some of these picks as short-term trading candidates, while others may be best used as longer-term positions. (Of course, ‘long-term’ for penny stock folks may still be short-term for everyone else.)

Even though we’re recommending them, in all cases you’ll still want to do some more of your own due diligence, and trade them intelligently. The key themes we saw for each ticker are described below.

Click on each company name (ticker) to view a chart, if the chart’s not shown.

- Penny Stock Trades (shorter term) -


Hyperdynamics Corp. (HDY)

Hyperdynamics’ board is not inviting CEO Kent Watts to return to his post - his last day will be July 1st. And apparently, the market is happy with the decision. Normally we wouldn’t chase a high-volume breakout on news like that, but this move may have broken the stock’s rut by giving the company new life. HDY rallied very well for several days the last time we saw buying this heavy.

Arbinet-thexchange Inc. (ARBX)

A big move out of nowhere? An earnings call scheduled for May 7th on the same day the big move started? It could be an omen, and ARBX may be able sustain the speculative rally right up until earnings are released…..and maybe afterward as well. This is still a pretty speculative chart, but it’s also the best move we’ve seen since 2006.

Sunrise Solar Corp. (SSLR)

Sunrise Solar has a fairly reliable history of strong rallies that start out modestly, and then accelerate for a week or so once engaged. Each of the recent ones (July of ‘09 and January of ‘09) faded just as quickly, so be sure to bail at the first sign of a top. But, it could be a decent ride on the way up.

 - Penny Stock Picks (longer term) -

The Dixie Group Inc. (DXYN)

Q1 was worse than expected, but the market doesn’t seem to care. Perhaps investors are eying earnings of 10 cents in 2010. Either way, the downtrend has turned into a well-supported uptrend. Look for turbulence in the $3.70-ish area.

Angiotech Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ANPI)

Angiotech’s conference call on Thursday was uneventful, as was the market’s response to what was said. That’s perfect - we can do without the volatility for this long-term idea. What the market doesn’t quite get (or maybe it does) is that Angiotech’s slow trek into the black as about to accelerate. Analysts are looking for earnings of 2 cents in 2009, and 12 cents in 2010. At the current price, that means the forward-looking P/E is 4.5. We love the slow, methodical progress in the meantime.

Elray Resources Inc. (ELRA)

Didn’t we already pick Elray earlier this week? Yep, but it popped up again using a different scan. In the past we’ve found if stocks keep showing up on different ‘buy’ lists for different reasons, it does actually mean that all those things are coming together in a ‘perfect storm’. Note the support being made at the 20 day moving average line. If resistance at 50 cents is broken, look out above.

This is just a sample of the kinds of picks, ideas, and commentary you can get by subscribing to our free newsletter. Don’t scour the market hours looking for ideas - we can do it for you. Register today.

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