It was only two weeks ago we were feeling a little sick about our long position in Briggs & Stratton Corp. (BGG). Now we’re glad we were able to distinguish between market weakness and company weakness. BGG shares are back to where they were in early February. More importantly, they’re back in the black for us; we picked Briggs and Stratton at $15.55, and they’re currently at $15.65. That’s a heckuva run from March’s low of $11.13.

I still have doubts about the stock continuing at this blistering pace, so don’t “chase” this one if you’re interested. Remember, this is a long-term idea for us and we should see several pullbacks along the way to use as entry points. And as overbought as we are now, I suspect we’ll see one of those dips in the very near future. As long as the 50 day moving average line (purple) holds up as support at $14.36 though, the overall uptrend should be ok. That may be a good entry area, in fact.

The best way to get the very latest opinion on how to trade - or if to trade - Briggs & Stratton Corp. (NYSE:BGG) is to register for our newsletter. Just use the form at  the top of this page, and we’ll deliver BGG trading information straight to your inbox.

I’ll warn you now my sports picks have been off the last couple of years. You could interpret that in one of two ways though - either I’m due, or I’m just bad at picking ‘em. Honestly, I’m usually pretty good at it, so I think I’m due. Anyway, here are my final four picks.

• Louisville
• Memphis
• Duke
• North Carolina

I think Pitt and Connecticut are contenders, but I’m not entirely sure they’re really the best teams in their respective brackets. I know when U of L is ready to go and if Pitino is primed, the Cards can literally do anything they want. Memphis has been underestimated all year long, even if their record wasn’t as strong as I’d expect it to be. Tournament time is different for them. And Duke? OK, that’s probably more of a nostalgia-based pick than based on talent, but how can you not like Duke’s chances in any tournament? Also, how cool would it have been to see a North Carolina/Duke championship? But, the way the brackets line up, that’s an impossibility.

I don’t want to pick a winner yet, as that’s just too far down the road right now. Once we’re down to the final four (which hopefully will look a lot like the list I just gave you above), I’ll pinpoint how I think the finals and semi-finals will shape up.

What do you think? Feel free to post your picks below.

For those of you who’ve been closely following the progress of Edwards Lifesciences’ (EW) SAPIEN transcatheter aortic heart valve, yesterday’s news that the non-surgical trial’s enrollment has been completed is an encouraging sign - from this point forward the study’s results will bring them closer to the end of the trial than just further away from the beginning. However, the news release prompted several other questions regarding the overall trial, specifically about the anticipated time line.

Since we have an Edwards Lifesciences trade on the table, and since many of you likely own EW at least for the short run if not for the long haul, more details may be merited.

Here’s the overall time line for the entire SAPIEN study, We thank Edwards for supplying the clarification.

1. March 2009, completed enrollment in the “non-surgical” study arm of the U.S. PARTNER Trial
2. Edwards expects to complete enrollment in the “surgical” study arm in August 2009
3. The primary end-point of the study is one year follow-up; Edwards will be able to submit to the FDA after each patient has been followed for one year
4. Edwards continues to expect FDA approval for the Edwards SAPIEN transcatheter valve sometime in the 2011 timeframe
5. The U.S. PARTNER Trial is estimated to be completed in 2014

(The Edwards SAPIEN valve is commercially available in Europe, and Edwards reported 2008 global sales of the Edwards SAPIEN valve as $53 million; Edwards expects $75 to $95 million in global transcatheter heart valve sales for the full year 2009.)

The company also provided these relevant SAPIEN links….

The slideset from the Edwards December Investor Conference (see “session 1”) :
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=124840&p=irol-EventDetails&EventId=2045480

Information on the actual disease being treated by the SAPIEN valve:
http://www.edwards.com/procedures/aorticstenosis/aorticstenosis.htm

Thanks again to Edwards Lifesciences for the added information. If you have any thoughts or feedback (for them or for us), leave it below. If it’s a particularly meaningful question or point, we’ll forward it to the company for a response.

If you want to get these kinds of detailed updates on Edwards Lifesciences (NYSE:EW) that you can’t get from just the news alone, be sure to sign up for our free newsletter today. Remember, information is power. If you have the same information everybody else has, you have no more power than they do. Arm yourself with a powerful weapon - subscribe today.

I have absolutely no regrets about hanging onto Edwards Lifesciences Corp. (EW) through a rough patch, as I was confident the stock would recover once the market stopped dragging it down. And sure enough, that’s how it happened. EW hit a low of $52.86 early in the month, but is now back to $60.75… and back in the black for us by about four points. I just wish the stock had managed to break above what has now been established as a resistance level.

This week’s high of $61.91 was basically where EW kept hitting a brick wall - with one brief exception - in February. It’s not a ‘problem’ yet, as retreating from a ceiling after an initial test hardly says the stock is doomed. In fact, it could take two or three tries to get over that hump. We simply need to keep any eye on the chart while it works through this fork in the road.

If the resitance around $61/$62 is toppled though, I think Edwards could explode to the upside.

By the way, Edwards announced today they’ve completed enrollment in their 350-patient, non-surgical trial of the SAPIEN transcatheter aortic heart valve. The SAPIEN is designed to be an option for patients suffering from aortic stenosis that may not be able to survive conventional aortic valve replacement. They really have no treatment options for their valve disease.

I don’t see the news as a game-changer though. The trial will certainly put Edwards at the top of a short list when it comes time to make a treatment decision, but there’s no telling how long the trial will last before (if) it’s approved in the U.S., and I can’t imagine the market being very big for a transcatheter aortic heart valve. The projected completion date for the study is 2011, though I’ve seen some data suggesting it may be as late as 2014 before it’s done. It’s still medical breakthrough all the same though.

Here’s the chart.

To be notified immediately when Edwards Lifesciences (NYSE:EW) breaks out, breaks down, or releases trade-worthy news, sign up for our free newsletter today. Don’t miss out on the next profit-generating trade.

I’m trying real hard to be fair with our Agilent Technologies (A) stock pick from mid-January. I was willing to ride it all the way down to a low of $12.02, as I knew the stock’s weakness was more market-related than company-related. And sure enough, when the market perked up, soo too did Agilent - it’s up 18% off that low, and has crossed back above its 20 day moving average line.

You know what’s been masked by all of that gain though? A serious lack of volume. I still have my doubts about the longevity of this upward move, as the buyers seem to be thinning out already.

I’m going to sit tight for the time being since we’re making progress. I still haven’t regained my comfort level though. I probably won’t do that until we see trading in the $20’s again, which actually wouldn’t be a big deal for a stock like this one.

Do you want to be notified when we make an exit decision on Agilent (NYSWE:A)? Or who knows? If things go a certain way, we may renew our buy rating. Find out as soon as we make that decision by signing up for our freee newsletter today.

We haven’t said it in a while, but an e-mail this morning has prompted us to remind all of you that we read every e-mail, and answer every question you guys send in…..really. When it’s something worth sharing with everyone, we’ll post the whole shabang here in the blog. We got one of those questions today.

Hi, I’m new to investing and would like to know the difference between a technical trade alert and a “BUY” rating on the stocks you mention. Thank You.

Thanks for the question, and sorry if there was any confusion about the difference.

There’s no iron-clad rule that distinguishes a technical trade from a ‘buy’ rating on a stock. However, a technical trade alert is generally short-term in nature, and has nothing at all to do with that company’s fundamentals. It’s mostly based on a chart, and perhaps near-term sentiment.

A buy rating may be technically based, but is supported by fundamentals. We also recognize that fundamentals may take longer to cash in on, so a ‘buy’ rated trade is longer-term in scope.

Hope that helps.

By the way, you’ve still not seen the whole spectrum of ratings yet. We haven’t had an opportunity to use them all, but the new rating system can utilize everything from strong sell to strong buy. Once the market turns ‘normal’ again, look for more use of those grades.

To get our next buy, sell, or technical trade alert, sign up for the newsletter. You’ll get money-making trading ideas delivered right to your inbox.

This probably isn’t the kind of stock I’d own in my portfolio, particularly when I still wasn’t sure about the economic phase we’re currently in. On the other hand, if I didn’t know that ‘World Wrestling Entertainment Inc. (WWE)‘ was a wrestling/show company, I’d have to say the numbers are impressive given the environment…. much more impressive than about 90% of other stocks.

With a twelve-month P/E of 17.10, and a forward-looking P/E of 14.90, you could certainly do a lot worse than the organization that made “The Rock” and Hulk Hogan household names. And, based on the recent chart, it looks like other investors are starting to feel the same way.

For the first time in months, WWE is above its 50 day moving average line, confirming a change in the stock’s momentum. The move also broke a couple of key resistance lines, even though a few others remain (though they’re well above where World Wrestling Ent. Shares are right now.)

I really know nothing about this business, though I would imagine it’s one of the most cyclical businesses to be in. Then again, the company remained profitable in 2008 when a truckload of other companies didn’t, so maybe wrestling is a little more resilient than any of us would imagine.

Just wanted to show you the chart, as the stock is trading about half the value it was at a little over a year ago, yet is starting to rev its engines.

It’s not an official trade, nor is WWE going into my personal portfolio. I reserve the right to change my mind on both fronts though. Sometimes the goofy/obscure ideas are also the most rewarding.

To be notified if we decide to turn World Wrestling Entertainment (NYSE:WWE), just sign up for our free e-newsletter. If we pull the trigger on WWE, you’ll be able to read exactly how we trade it, and exactly how we use the news. Be sure to sign up today.

We are assessing all of our open trades pretty intensely today. This particular blog entry is only one of three you’ll want to check out… the list of trades we want to keep holding, as they offer the most potential. (The other two commentaries focus on trades we know we don’t want, and trades we’re not sure about.) Take a look.

Hansen Natural Resources (HANS) - We blogged about Hansen in great detail Monday, so we’re not going to go into it again here. Just click here to revisit those thoughts. For now, we’ll just sum it up by saying this has been one of our more productive trades, and the one we’re absolutely most optimistic about.

Edwards Lifesciences Corp. (EW) - This is definitely one we want to keep, as we think the recent recovery effort really will take hold. The sharp dip in late February never fostered any follow-through, and we’re starting to see some bullishness brewing.

Briggs and Stratton (BGG) - We liked Briggs and Stratton for fundamental reasons, and we still do. So, despite the recent decline, we want to hang onto BGG. Besides, the decline appears to have leveled off over the last six days. We may be on the verge of moving hgiher again for this longer-term position. Sit tight.

One thing we want to reiterate…. as tough as it can be to remain net long in a crappy environment like this one, it’s not necessarily a good idea to be completely out of the market. That’s why we want to be invested at all right now, and the quality of these three stocks makes them the “best of breed” in our view.

We’ve referenced a similar stat before, but I heard a slight variation on it yesterday…. 30% of what was lost in a bear market is recovered in the first 40 days of the next bull market.

It wasn’t clear if that was 40 trading days or 40 calendar days, but it doesn’t matter…you get the idea. As much of a mess as things are right now, we still contend we’re closer to a bottom than not. You don’t want to not be in some stocks for the point in time when things start to improve (even if it may take a while to get going).

Do you want to be informed if our opinion changes on Briggs & Stratton, Edwards Lifesciences, Hansen Natural Resources? The best way to do so is to subscribe to our newsletter. It’s free, and you’ll soon find it’s an invaluable resource when it comes to turning trends and ideas into real money.

This blog entry is only one of three recent ones intended to provide some perspective on our current open trades, so don’t mentally file this one without checking out the other two. This one looks at the trades we’re still unsure about; the other two discuss the trades we know we want to keep, and the ones we know we want to dump.

As for the ones we’re not quite sure what to think of…

XOMA Ltd. (XOMA) - Despite not even coming close to to meeting our initial expectations, it’s worth noting that even though XOMA pulled back shortly after we picked, it has resisted sinking to new multi-year lows like most everything else has. It’s just enough relative strength to merit holding onto it in anticipation of a change in the market’s tide.

Molina Healthcare (MOH) - Ya’ know, this one hasn’t been pretty, but it’s also not been beaten down to new multi-year lows. We’re going to hang onto it for the time being. If it falls under $16.12, then we’ll pull the plug.

iShares Preferred Stock ETF (PFF) - This one’s been a surprising disappointment as well. It does bob up and down pretty reliably though. The next upswing we see, we’ll be getting out of this one as well.

Agilent Technologies Inc. (A) - At this point we don’t have a lot left to lose by hanging onto Agilent. It’s followed the market lower since mid-February. The only possibility we have here to salvage the trade is if the recent flattening (in the last five trading days) may be an omen that enough selling is enough already. If $12.02 breaks though, time to say goodbye.

Do you want real-time updates regarding Xoma, Molina, the iShares Preferred Stock ETF, and Agilent? The only way to do that is to sign up for the free newsletter. See the top right part of this page to do so.

If you didn’t see the other blog entries associated with this one (the other ‘Open Trade Updates’), be sure to do so… we’re doing an in-depth review of almost all of our open trades. Some we decided to keep, some we’re still not sure about, and some we don’t want to hold any longer. The latter is what you’re about hear - the ones we just don’t want to hang onto, as the risk/reward proposition has just gotten too disadvantageous.

InterDigital Inc. (IDCC) - We thought this one might get things turned around after an undeserved and drastic post-earnings plunge. No luck so far though, and we don’t think the odds are good of that happening anytime soon. If you’re still in the trade, it’s probably time to cut loose. We are.

Phase Forward Inc. (PFWD) - If you’re still in this trade, I think you should dump it. Support broke down, and I still see more downside to go before it catches a reversal.

Ann Taylor Stores (ANN) - Geez it’s a good thing we decided to bail out this one the day before earnings were released, as we said we’d decide a few days prior. Nothing was particularly compelling about the earnings announcement, and ANN did end up opening lower that day, and continuing to sink.

Just to be clear, we’re cutting bait by taking InterDigital, Phase Forward, and Ann Taylor (if you’re still in it) off our trade list.

The most timely way to hear our thoughts about getting into or getting out of our stock trades is to sign up for our free newsletter. We can deliver these trade specifics to your inbox 2 to 3 times per week.

We got some really good action Hansen Natural Corporation (HANS) today… the kind of action that hints a major breakout effort could be brewing. The high of $36.47 is the second highest high since last April (shares peaked at $37.93 last June), and this peak immediately followed what could have been - or maybe should have been - the beginning of a deep selloff. Volume is picking up too.

I’ve included two charts below… a near-term one to highlight the ‘almost’ eclipse of new highs. The other one is a longer-term chart that really puts the opportunity in perspective.

The short-term one looks a little bullish head-and-shoulderish, and it details the pattern of higher highs and higher lows that started to take shape in October.

The longer-term one highlights how the October reversal was a major shift in momentum. Yet, we can still see HANS shares have tons of room to recover before a headwind is met.

By the way, Hansen launched a new product last week, called “Elixir’. It’s for women. The company describes it as (and this is 100% serious)….

“For women seeking to add more guilt-free indulgence & simple alternatives into their daily beauty routine, Hansen Beverage Company, a leading marketer of natural and alternative beverages, introduces SELF Beauty Elixir. Made with the finest ingredients, SELF Beauty Elixir is a low-calorie, functional, ready-to-drink beauty beverage infused with an essential blend of vitamins, minerals, natural fruit & botanical extracts with antioxidants that promote and support healthy skin & overall wellness.”

Sounds like it preys a little on feelings of self-doubt, to the point of being preachy…which is exactly why it should do well.

There are no figures or projections about how much they expect Elixir to contribute to the top or bottom line. We don’t foresee it having  a huge impact (either way) anytime soon, though you never know.

To stay in touch with our ongoing coverage of Hansen Natural Resources (NASDAQ:HANS), and how you can best trade it, sign up for our free newsletter today.

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3/5/2009

Ann Taylor Stores Corp. (ANN)…Time to Cut Bait

Filed under:

• ANN

— SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 12:56 pm

I’d rather be wrong and miss a potential profit than be wrong and take a potential loss. That’s my way of saying you should probably get out of Ann Taylor Stores (ANN) - if you’re in - before the day is over. The company will post earnings tomorrow morning, and it looks like investors are already starting to get out….in advance. ANN shares moved to their lowest low in three weeks today, and the selling volume has been pretty brisk all week long.

Just to be clear, I think tomorrow is too late to get out of Ann Taylor shares, since by the time you can sell it, the earnings news will already be out. If the stock gaps down on any bad news, you’re well under water by that point. The time to act is today.

Now, the million dollar philosophical question is whether this weakness is market-related, or company-related? I believe it’s both, but more so on the market’s side of the table.

Yesterday’s bounce was our best shot at starting a rebound, and look at what happened today. Ann Taylor would have to report at least a ‘meet’ if not a ‘beat’, AND the market would have to not be overwhelmed by widespread worry for the news to do ANN shares any good. That’s just too much to hope for in this environment, especially knowing that retail sales fell again in February. It’s just not worth the risk, particularly when we have a few other long trades still on the table.

And what if Ann Taylor comes in with good news and/or the market perks up again? We can still buy back in… I think there’s less opportunity-cost by getting out than there is risk-assumed by getting back in.

Remember, ANN was first entered on the premise of the stock breaking above resistance around $6.53 as a signal of a breakout move. If the stock does manage to do that, the bulk of the potential rally is still in front of it. ANN could move as high as $12.00 before a major wall is hit. So, we’re willing to give up a little on the front end in order to abate a big risk.

Either way, tomorrow’s going to be interesting.

Do you want to get all our thoughts on getting the most out of Ann Taylor Stores’ (NYSE:ANN) chart and news? Sign up for the newsletter, and we’ll let you know everything we’re seeing, hearing, and thinking. Now’s not the time to not be well-informed.

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XOMA Ltd. (XOMA) Sets Date For Q4 Earnings Announcement

Filed under:

• XOMA

— SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 9:22 am

Looks like we’re in the thick of earnings season. Ann Taylor Stores’ (ANN) is on tap for tomorrow morning, we already heard InterDigital’s (IDCC) results, and now, XOMA Ltd. (XOMA) has scheduled their earnings release. Look for them to come out on the morning of Wednesday, March 11th. The time wasn’t supplied for the release, but we’re assuming before the market opens. The conference call and webcast, however, won’t take place until 4:30 p.m. Eastern time.

The webcast can be joined by visiting XOMA’s website at http://www.investorcalendar.com/IC/CEPage.asp?ID=136306. It will be available for replay through June 10th, 2009. Dial-in numbers for the live audiocast are 877-407-9205 (U.S. and Canada) and 201-689-8054 (International). Conference ID #: 315644. A telephone replay will be available beginning approximately two hours after the live call ends, and will be offered through April 10th, 2009. Telephone numbers for the replay are 877-660-6853 (U.S./Canada) and 201-612-7415 (International). Two access numbers are required for the replay: account number 286 and conference ID # 315644.

As for whether or not we want to keep holding XOMA through the earnings news or not, that depends on the ‘hints’ we get from the stock over the days leading up to the announcement. If we see bullish pressure, odds are the news will be good. If we see bearish pressure, odds are the news will be bad. And, we’ll act accordingly, kind of like what we’re doing for Ann Taylor (which we’ll make a decision on before today’s closing bell - check back later for that blog entry).

By the way, you don’t need me to tell you XOMA’s been a big disappointment so far. Is that more market-related than company-related? I think so, but it doesn’t matter…. a falling stock is a falling stock regardless of the reason.

As I specifically said yesterday, we have to be willing to hold stocks through the market’s rough patches because we want be invested for the surprise rallies. I still stand by that. On the other hand, I also think it’s important to have a sell discipline. I’ll be bold with XOMA, but I’m not going to be stubborn. Let’s revisit the chart on the 10th.

Do you need a second - or first - opinion on how to trade XOMA Ltd. (Nasdaq:XOMA)? Just sign up for our free newsletter, and let us show you the ins and outs of using the news and reading the charts t get the most out of this stock.

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