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Small Cap Network Blog

1/29/2009

China Energy Recovery Inc. (CGYV) Inching Closer to Breakout

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 6:56 am

Remember the Seinfeld episode when Kramer compared a relationship break-up to tipping over a vending machine? His theory was simple … break-ups don’t ‘take’ the first time, much the same way you can’t knock over a vending machine on the first try. You have to rock the vending machine back and forth a few times to get it to tip over. And, you have to break-up a few times to finally make it a permanent break-up.Well, I think the analogy applies to China Energy Recovery’s (CGYV) impending breakout … it’s going to take a few tries before one of these breakout efforts finally sticks. In the meantime, it’s still rocking back and forth.

Shares did indeed benefit from Tuesday’s good news. The stock reached a high of $2.20 before settling back in to close at $2.00. However, $2.20 was the highest level seen since mid-November, and topped the peak of $2.19 made just a few days ago. The volume behind the move was outstanding as well.

Unfortunately, the bulls couldn’t keep the rally going on Wednesday. Like the prior surges, there just wasn’t enough follow through the next day.

Don’t give up yet though. Don’t even think about giving up. The fact that the bulls continue to step up to the plate after each dip is a very good sign. Eventually, that persistence should mean they can finally get this vending machine tipped over once and for all. It’s also worth pointing out the company has done a great job of producing a steady stream of good news to act as catalysts for these rallies.

Again, my line in the sand is $2.25, though I think the right thing to do is be an owner before that level is crossed - not after. If you wait until after it’s crossed, you may find you have to pay $3.00 or more just to get in. That’s the way these breakouts can work … in a flash.

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Edwards Lifesciences (EW) Announces Earnings Date, Testing Highs

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 6:10 am

A few days ago we were looking at an Edwards Lifesciences (EW) chart, commenting how the trade was off to a rocky start. EW was waffling around the 200 day line, and testing support at the 20 day moving average line. Well, good news since then - the 20 day average line ended up acting as a springboard, pushing the stock pretty well past both key moving averages. In fact, shares moved to new multi-week highs this week, and are close to breaking past a key resistance level.

The line in the sand is $60, or EW’s high watermark for August and September (except for one errant day where the stock touched $66.66, but closed under $60 anyway). With shares currently trading at $57.53, we’re close to breaking through that ceiling. However, it’s worth mentioning EW hasn’t been the kind of stock to rally continuously. It was down again yesterday, in fact. Two steps forward and one step back.

Anyway, the company notified us about their next earnings announcement. They’ll post them on February 3rd (Tuesday), as well as host a conference call. Click here for the full details.

You may or may not want to still be in the stock when earnings come out. It could be a great thing if the news is well received. There’s a lot of event risk though. If, however, we have a nice profit cushion (we’re up only a hair right now), it would be easier to risk sticking with the trade. Let’s rethink the trade on the 1st or 2nd.

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1/26/2009

Technical Trade Alert: iShares S&P US Pref Stock Idx Fnd ETF (NYSE:PFF)

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 2:49 pm

Sometimes the very best trading opportunities are born from the market’s over-reaction to a mere possibility. Case in point - the iShares S&P US Preferred Stock Index Fund (PFF). Investors felt the dividends being paid by many preferred stocks were in jeopardy, thanks to the stipulations likely to be included as part of the government’s bailout package. As a result, the stock was torpedoed a couple of times in the last few weeks. However, the most recent plunge - if like the last two - could be setting up a nice, trade-worthy rebound.

The pattern is really quite simple … PFF works its way into an oversold situation, and then bounces sharply by 10 points or more. We’re using a stochastics chart as an oversold/overbought indicator, which as you can see has been a very effective trading tool for PFF since October. More specifically, the iShares S&P US Preferred Stock Index Fund is bouncing around in a rising trading range, and we’ve just seen it push off the lower edge of that range.

The counter-argument is valid … preferred stock dividends are truly at risk, and in the case of the banks may be going away entirely under some versions of the ever-changing stimulus proposal. As such, PFF isn’t attractive.

It’s not an invalid argument, but we have two responses to it.

First, this isn’t a long-term trade idea. In fact, it’s specifically a short-term idea. Besides, the threat to dividends started long before either of the last three pullbacks, and we’ve seen two rallies following sharp drops despite the continued risk that government intervention poses. So, the question really isn’t one of value … if the index isn’t ‘worth it’ now, it wasn’t worth it in October or December either.

The second reason the iShares S&P US Preferred Stock Index Fund isn’t under as much duress as investors might think is simply that many of the biggest preferred stock holdings that make up the fund aren’t banking or financial stocks. Lots of other companies are represented in the ETF, like Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX), Metlife (NYSE: MET), and Schering Plough (NYSE: SGP). However, even the fund’s holdings in Citigroup (NYSE: C) and US Bancorp (NYSE: USB) preferreds could be better served with help from TARP than without it. Indeed, the worst for those stocks may already be priced in.

Additionally, as the economy’s footing becomes more encouraging, odds are good that dividend-paying equities are going to be much more attractive during the rebuilding phase. This further bolsters the short-term argument in favor of PFF, even if it is a longer-term rationale. This idea could also be part of the reason the ETF has made higher highs and higher lows since October …  this is one group of stocks investors are quick to buy on a dip.

In any case, the iShares S&P US Preferred Stock Index Fund simply looks like a high-odds trade that could produce some relatively easy money. We’re not shooting for the stars, and of course we’re keeping the trade on a short leash. The chart, however, hints the market is trying to repeat the gift of gains it’s already given a couple of times over the last three months.

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China Energy Recovery (OTC:CGYV) Rally Fizzles but for How Long?

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 12:25 pm

China Energy Recovery As I suspected, China Energy Recovery’s (OTCBB: CGYV) monster rally last week tapered off over the next few days… but that’s ultimately a good thing. The pace and size of the move just pushed the stock into an extreme overbought situation, and it was difficult to say how much longevity that trend had left. As it turns out, it was none. As I said though, that’s a good thing in my book. Now with that first wave - the euphoric wave - of buying done, the level-headed investors are left behind. I expect more predictable trading as a result.Anyway, nothing has really changed about our stance on CGYV - we think this is one you buy on the dips, as we expect multiple ‘two steps forward and one step back’ patterns to play out over the next several weeks.We’ll have more updates on open and potential trades next time. 

Spicy Pickle (OTC:SPKL) Surfacing Again on the Radar

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 12:23 pm

The last time we looked at Spicy Pickle (OTCBB: SPKL) on the 20th, shares were trading at 21SPKL Chart cents. We commented that the momentum may have shifted to bullishness, having witnessed SPKL’s move above a couple of key moving averages. Well, now shares are at 23 cents, which isn’t leaps and bounds above where it was then, but it’s still a 9% gain over the span of three days. We’ve also continued to see higher highs and higher lows, and the heavier volume is still on the buying side of the table.I’m still hesitant to turn this slight upswing into a full-blown trade, as I want to see how these buyers respond when really tested. It’s on my radar though, and I think it should be on your’s too. Let’s see if SPKL is going to get traction or not.

Agilent (NYSE:A) Trade Update

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 12:19 pm

Though it’s only been a week, we have to say that the Agilent Technologies (NYSE: A) trade has been a disappointment so far. It’s not deep in the red, nor should we expect it to radically outperform the market (which is down since then), but we were expecting a little more strength.No need to bail out just yet; the stock surged the first few days of the year, and deserved a break. So, we’ll give it a little more time and room - just not a whole lot more. A move under $17.60 may be our line in the sand. Stay tuned.

Edwards Lifesciences (NYSE:EW) Trade Update

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 12:13 pm

Optimists could argue that General Electric (NYSE: GE) did their part to help the market get out of this rut by meeting expectations. Pessimists would point out that ‘meeting estimates’ was a dubious achievement … Q4 profits were down 46%, ‘as expected’. The news wasn’t enough to inspire any early buying; quite the opposite actually. Nevertheless, several of our followed stocks have so far managed to resist an otherwise bearish trend. Some have done it better than others, but a few are shaping up surprisingly well. Here’s a partial rundown…Edwards LifesciencesEW ChartWe were pleased to see Edwards Lifesciences (NYSE: EW) continue to push above its 200 day moving average line on the 16th - the day we sent out the trade alert. It only took until the next day to become worried, when the stock fall back under that same long-term moving average line. Fortunately the 20 day moving average line stepped in as support again, and EW moved back above both moving averages as of the end of yesterday.Of course, the stock is waffling around the 200 day line today, getting no help from this morning’s marketwide weakness. As long as the 20 day average line at $55.37 holds up, we’ll remain optimistic.

ICU Medical Inc. (NASDAQ:ICUI) Short Trade - Support and Resistance Defined

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 9:58 am

Though our short trade suggestion on ICU Medical Inc. (NASDAQ: ICUI) has only been on the table for about one trading day, we’ve seen some more definition added to key support and resistance levels. Since their ability or inability to keep the stock contained will determine how long we’re willing to stick with this bearish stock trade, we want to go ahead and pre-define our potential exit (or celebration) cues.

First and foremost, since this is a bearish/short trade, we want to see the 20 day moving average line (blue) continue to provide a ceiling. Since it’s sinking, continued resistance there will by default mean lower highs are being made. The 20 day line is currently at 31.63.

In the meantime, we’ve also seen falling straight-line resistance (purple) come into play. It’s falling even more sharply than the 20 day line is.

On the other side of the chart we see support being made at $30.00… something we don’t want to see. That support line extends all the way back to early December, and has been tested - successfully - six times since then. That can be a good thing or a bad thing though. It’s obviously bad if it continues to hold up as support. It could be a very good thing though, if-and-when ICUI moves under $30.00. The sudden breaking of a longer-term support level usually results in a pretty violent move, once it happens.

In the meantime, this is an exercise in patience.

By the way, ICU Medical reports earnings on February 2nd. That could be a catalyst one way or another, though not one we necessarily want to experience firsthand.

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1/23/2009

Market in a Wind-Up, But Where’s the Pitch Going?

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 11:09 am

Believe it or not, the market is flat for the last three days. It has certainly been all over the map this week, but the lack of any net movement suggests traders are just not quite sure what to think. There is one upside to this flat period though… these consolidation periods set up a big move once the market does make a break for it. (In fact, the longer the market stays flat, the more explosive the eventual break is.) The question is, which direction will it be headed this time around? Bearish, or bullish?

I’m inclined to think the bulls will have the edge in the short run, despite a few blatant clues to the contrary. The more subtle hints like the VIX, and the late-in-the-day rebounds, tell me the bulls want to be buyers here following last week’s implosion.

The VIX, despite no net movement either over the last three days, has curiously closed at the lower end of its range the last two days, and is apt to do the same today. We’ve also watched a point/peak form with Monday’s high close of 57.36. Though the market hasn’t quite mirrored the move, the VIX has been giving us better (i.e. earlier) reversal clues lately. So, the VIX’s peak is indeed a bullish hint. Now if we could just get the VIX to make a lower low.

And like I said, though Monday’s huge selloff unwound most of these efforts, we’ve seen rallies - and comebacks - in five of the last six sessions. The bulls are persistent if nothing else.

On the other hand, those same bulls need to get over the nearest hurdle first before they can start to think about any bigger-picture progress. Specifically, though we’ve seen a few brilliant flashed of strength this week, we’ve also seen four straight lower highs. The result is the formation of a resistance line. We need to get past that to continue any bullish conversation

On the flipside, the bears have remained within striking distance of a serious meltdown all week long, and a little stumble could get that snowball rolling.

The S&P 500 is only being help up by support at 804 (Monday’s and Tuesday’s lows)… and that’s weak support at best. If the SPX slides under 804 - let’s just call it 800 - I can foresee everyone abandoning ship. If they all do it at the same time like I think they will, the dip is gonna’ get big, and violent.

No matter what, we think it’s going to be a big and fast move once the walls come a-tumblin’ down. Get ready for a wild ride once it happens. The downside target is 750, while the upside target is 920.

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Voyant International Inc. (OTC:VOYT) - RocketStream Goes Online … Literally

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 7:02 am

Bulletin board company Voyant International (OTC:VOYT) adopted a brand new marketing strategy this morning for their flagship software RocketStream. The web-accelerating software had thus far been sold by resellers, and usually in bundles with other, similar software products. Now, Voyant is aiming its marketing effort straight at the end consumer; all versions of RocketStream are now available to anyone via a web download.

This essentially cuts out the middleman as the sales force. Plus, ‘unbundling’ it may mean it has wider appeal to ordinary retail users like me and you; we won’t have to buy some tools we don’t need just to get the one we do need.

More than anything though, this puts the marketing effort - and the success of that effort - squarely in Voyant’s lap, which is where they wanted it. The company is confident they’ll be able to promote the software as well as anybody else has. Perhaps better.

I don’t know what the effective price for RocketStream was when sold as part of a software suite through resellers. I do know, however, that the starting point for the casual-use version is $100. Enterprise versions can run as much as $8000, though that version is designed for multiple users (and I assume includes a few more bells and whistles). That’s pretty affordable no matter which version is needed.

To my knowledge, the downloadable versions are the exact same programs already being used by thousands on a global basis. The only difference is the method of delivery.

The only question I had wasn’t addressed in the press release, but it was answered by a company representative… what about the perpetual revenue component that made RocketStream so attractive in the first place? A one-time sale is nice, but renewable revenue is even better.

As with the previous version, the online/download version is purchased with an upfront payment, and a nominal annual fee is collected to keep the software active. So, Voyant will still enjoy recurring sales.

The logical question investors are likely to ask - what does this ultimately mean in terms of company revenue?

It’s still difficult to get a grasp of that kind of information, as there’s nothing to really compare the product to. Plus, the software industry is a multi-billion dollar industry, but it’s also a little nebulous. I can, however, offer you some realistic scope about what this could mean for Voyant’s shareholders.

Not every one of the United States’ 300 million residents will need or want RocketStream for personal use. Some will though. Let’s just conservatively say that only 0.1% of them are going to purchase the program; that’s still 300,000 people. At $100 a pop (the lowest-end version), that still translates into sales of $30 million. Not bad at all. Even better though…. extrapolate that thumbnail math to the global population of 6 billion. Even if a tiny fraction of them become customers, it could be huge for Voyant.

It still remains to be seen how quickly the online version will start to get traction. Just making the software available online is one thing, but getting it sold is another. Though there’s no direct competition, there are certainly a lot of distractions on the Internet that could get in the way of the marketing effort.

I suspect we’ll see some fruits of the labor materialize within weeks, though I think it could take a few months for the payoff to get highly attractive.

Still, I think it’s a good move - one that will sooner than later benefit shareholders.

Here’s the press release.
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1/20/2009

Voyant International Corp. (VOYT) Close to Breaking Past Ceiling

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 7:22 am

Keep your eye on two trading levels for micro cap stock Voyant International Corp. (OTC:VOYT). The first line in the sand is moderate resistance line at 11.5 cents. The second one is the more-meaningful resistance line at the 12 cent mark, which also happens to be the highest level hit by this bulletin board stock within the last four months. A successful move above the 12 cent level by VOYT could jump-start a long-awaited rally for this up-and-coming small cap company.

As usual, the chart image tells the story pretty succintly, so I don’t have to. The lower of the two blue lines is plotted at 11.5 cents; the upper one lies at 12 cents. It’s actually pretty amazing when you think about it… how long Voyant shares have ’stayed in the hunt’ just by maintaining a persistent attack on resistance despite a crappy (i.e. bearish) environment.

I think the market generally realizes the stock is much like the company - right on the verge of considerable success. A move past 12 cents could jump-start this bulletin board stock, and bring its valuation in-line with the company’s current and potential operation. At the very least I think it could be a good trade up to the 17 cent area.

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Spicy Pickle Franchising (SPKL) Making Breakout Effort

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 6:45 am

If you’ve not taken a look at a chart of micro cap stock Spicy Pickle Franchising Inc. (SPKL) lately, you may want to soon. SPKL shares have moved not only above their 20 day moving average line for the first time (effectively) since August, but they’re also above their 50 day moving average line for the first time since May. Both are good technical indications of a shift in the chart’s overall momentum. The best part of all, however, is that the recent rally has been built on rising bullish volume, or accumulation.

The chart itself tells the story better than I could ever describe it in words, so I’ll keep my comments to a minimum and proceed quickly to the image; the green (bullish) volume bars have been getting taller and more frequent since mid-December. The stock is also up 15% since then, which isn’t a monumental gain, but definitely a move in a new direction.

While it’s difficult to point at the volume trend and rally and say “that’s institutional buying” (which would be great), we can easily look at the chart and say there’s a lot more interest now. Perhaps we need to take the technical analysis hints at face value.

Take a look at the chart. I’ll continue to monitor how things unfold here, but interested value-seekers may not want to tarry with a potential breakout from this micro cap name.

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1/15/2009

Dow Jones Industrials ETF (DIA): More Tales of the 5 Minute Chart

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 12:38 pm

Care to see some peculiar trading before, during, and after we got a dose of bad news this morning? Not unlike Friday of last week, this morning, we saw some unusual buying activity that had index ETF and index futures into positive territory. In fact, the Dow Jones Industrials ETF (the DIAmonds) rebounded off of lows made at 7:50 AM, and rallied into positive territory right up until 8:45 AM.

You could argue that the Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC) news was the root, but the timing doesn’t jive… that wasn’t anything new to drive a 7:50 AM rebound.

The Labor Department’s reported spike in jobless claims? Maybe, though that comes out at 8:30 AM, and usually takes about three seconds to start whatever response it’s going to start. There’s 20 minutes worth of rally still unaccounted between then and the time the market (well, pre-market) rolled over. See the 5 minute chart of the Diamonds (DIA) below to verify.

While it’s easy for me to say and hard for me to prove, I think once again this is the clever trader preying on the gullible investor. It takes very little to pump up things before the regular market session opens at 9:30 AM. I can’t help but wonder if someone was fueling a slightly higher open so they could make exits or enter shorts.

In the grand scheme of things it’s not that big of a deal… really. It’s not new, nor will it ever be stopped. And there’s some good news even - these guys rarely have a permanent effect (today proves that). It’s annoying all the same though.

The point/lesson (once again) is to not flinch at the early action. That means don’t get too engrossed in the pre-market futures all the way through the 10:00 AM mark… and sometimes even later.

If you want to day-trade the reversals and momentum, that’s fine. If you’re a swing trader or a long-termer though, you really can’t afford to flinch every time the market takes an odd turn.

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1/14/2009

Just Another Routine, Run-of-the-Mill 3 Percent Selloff

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 11:22 am

It’s scary, but my headline above isn’t off the mark - we’ve all gotten comfortably numb regarding massive market setbacks that would have been horrifying had they occurred before September. While I have no empirical evidence of this, it just seems like these plunges are bigger, faster, and more common than the ones I remember from 2001, and the ones I somewhat remember from the early 90’s. I don’t think things economically are considerably worse now than they were then - this is volatility just for the sake of volatility. Still, what a wild ride. Anywho…

Take a look at the 5-minute chart of the S&P 500. A rough start for the day to be sure, but it looks like the bulls started fighting back around 11:00 am.

Do I see that as partially-bullish? Nope. Mostly I’m on the sidelines, but more often than not (and I do have empirical evidence of this much) these terrible early moves - and I mean the horrific ones like today’s - are not undone by the end of the day. The mild ones often are undone; the harsh ones usually just stay harsh for the day.

That said, I don’t know that I’d be making any kind of bet on the matter. I’m following the end-of-day trend, which leads to a bearish conclusions. On an intra-day basis though (and despite the fact that I’m looking at an intra-day chart), there’s just too much indecision to fool with trying to get a read.

S&P 500 , 5 minute

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Strange-But-True Tales of Human Weasels (and we don’t mean Madoff)

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 9:15 am

What is going on in the world? Is it me, or have people - and things - just gotten strange over the last year? That’s not a giant surprise… the most dire economic crisis any of us have ever faced means I have slightly less hair than I did in 2007. That’s not what I’m talking about though. I’m not even talking about Bernie Madoff either…. that guy was out of his mind to think he’d never get busted, but his delusional abilities allowed him operate his crime before the market turned sour.
What I’m talking about is this guy, who tried to fake his own death when his money management firm started to be investigated. That’s not even the weird part though. I’ll let you read for yourself, but here’s a little hint…. anybody remember D. B. Cooper?

http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/01/13/missing.pilot/index.html?eref=onion

Then there’s the tax-cheater that’s now going to head up the government agency that make sure you don’t cheat on your taxes (and that’s misleading, nor an exaggeration).

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Source-Geithner-failed-to-pay-apf-14050873.html
Maybe it’s just me, but wouldn’t that be part of a basic background check for any IRS employee, let alone the guy who runs it?

It’s gettin’ weird out there. Anybody else have a strange-but-true story that unfolded (perhaps unraveled) in 2008?

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China Energy Recovery Inc. (CGYV) Livin’ Up to the Hype

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 8:40 am

Perhaps you’ve noticed that while every other stock out there is under fire thanks to a nightmarish economy, China Energy Recovery (CGYV) is doing just fine. This is one of those rare instances where a company’s growth is actually reflected in the stock’s price (novel concept, huh?); CGYV shares are up 32% since the mid-point of last month, and volume has picked up a little on the buy side.

That’s not the ‘news’ though. No, the news is their recent completion of yet-another boiler… this one for China National Salt. By my count, this is the fifth installation they’ve completed since September.

Maybe it’s just me, but it doesn’t appear as if anybody told the folks running China Energy that there’s a recession in place; they seem to still be growing their business - and profits - just like they said they would. How odd. I guess that’s the benefit of producing technology that (1) saves companies money, (2) is mandated by the national government, and (3) is good for the environment. [If those three ideas ring a bell, it’s because they’re the same ideas we mentioned when our CGYV coverage first began. They’re finally getting traction.]

The nicest part of all about the CGYV story is how the stock is actually rising, reflective of the company’s ongoing success.

After a slow September/October start (when the market was out in the woodshed), cooler heads started to prevail. By November, CER’s ‘value’ was being found, and a well-paced rally has unfolded ever since. In fact, I thought a move above recent highs had a good chance of sparking an even stronger move higher. Those ‘new high’ levels were $2.09, and then $2.25. Getting past $2.09 would be relatively reassuring, while moving above $2.25 had the potential to inspire a a whole new wave of buyers.

The good news is that CGYV shares reached $2.15 today, toppling the lower (and lesser) resistance line. The bad news is, CGYV opened at $2.15 today… a move that proved to hot to hold onto. The stock slid back to $1.90, where it’s still resting.

The main reason the stock was able to make such consistent progress over the last four weeks was the even-keeled pace of the rally…. it never worked its way into an overbought situation. That is, until this morning. The buyers just got a little ahead of themselves, and paid a small price, even if only temporarily.

Still, I think the sheer ability and willingness of the market to carry CGYV to a high of $2.15 is a good sign that there is indeed some real interest in the company. Though down a little today, that growing interest has still put a nice uptrend into place. I continue to like the bullish odds here, particularly if $2.15, and then $2.25, can be surpassed.

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1/12/2009

Take Control of Your Tax Dollars - Contact Your Congressman About Stimulus

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 2:08 pm

Normally we don’t take activist stances, opting to play the hand we’re dealt rather than trying to predetermine the hand we get. Given the situation though (not just for a particular company, but for our tax money as well), maybe it’s not out of place for us to shake the chains a little, and let our Congressmen hear from us.

If you’ve got something to say to them - and you probably do - we’ll tell you how to do so below. And while you’re at it, you can specifically make a case for the stimulus idea we mentioned this past weekend… the one that would indirectly benefit CEL-SCI (CVM).

To be clear, we’re not ‘advocating’ you do this. We view this like voting… vote with your heart, gut, and mind. We support your decision to vote however you want to. However, we are making this information available to you - and presenting it as a choice - because we think it’s something the majority of you would want to do, if not as investors, than at least as supporters of ongoing healthcare R&D.

Or, if neither of those reasons apply to you, then you’re probably at least interested in how your tax dollars are going to be given to someone else.

The Congressional contact information is at the bottom of this blog entry.

Immediately below is the template letter that CEL-SCI’s CEO Geert Kersten provided to us. I recommend you read it and/or modify it to really say what you want to say, though the letter in itself is quite effective as-is. The point is the same either way though… if you agree with the idea, tell Congress you’d  rather see the stimulus plan support this kind of research and development, as opposed to something they might have a personal interest in.

Anyway, here’s the basic form letter you might want to start with…

Re: Economic stimulus act help for tax and capital formation policies designed to promote innovation and job creation for America’s cutting-edge and research-intensive small companies, particularly biotechnology companies.Dear:

I applaud your commitment to economic stimulus legislation early in the 111th Congress. As part of this recovery plan, we respectfully urge you to include tax and capital formation policies designed to promote innovation and job creation for America’s cutting-edge and research-intensive small companies, particularly biotechnology companies.

Our nation’s small biotechnology companies, for example, are involved in the development of next-generation technologies to treat and cure diseases, yet are struggling to raise the necessary capital to survive the current financial crisis. Compared with 2007, funding raised by small biotech companies, both private and publicly-traded, has decreased by nearly 60 percent. The market for raising capital for these companies is now closed. Roughly one-third of small public biotech companies are currently operating with less than 6 months of cash-on-hand and nearly half have less than 1 year of cash remaining. In 2008, funds raised from initial public offerings (IPOs) have fallen a staggering 97 percent. Further, more and more small biotech companies throughout the United States have been forced into bankruptcy due to the financial crisis. These companies cannot simply be mothballed and resurrected when times are better. If Congress does not help quickly, a whole generation of new medicines will be destroyed in just a few months.

Small life sciences companies are a key component of the intellectual infrastructure of America’s 21st century economy. We fear that if no action is taken by the Congress to address the capital crisis facing small biotech companies, additional bankruptcies will occur, the search for new treatments will be threatened, and current drug development trials might be canceled. Additionally, the industry’s high-wage, high-skill American jobs will be put at risk. If small R&D-intensive companies are allowed to fail due to the current capital crisis, America’s overwhelming competitive edge in a variety of cutting-edge industries, such as biotechnology, could be lost.

As such, we urge you to include in the economic stimulus bill a provision allowing small companies to accelerate the use of their tax assets, such as net operating losses (NOLs), in order to receive critical funding now in return for giving up these tax benefits in the future. To ensure a stimulative effect for the economy, under this proposal any new funds received by companies would be required to be used for R&D activities in the U.S. or else would be recaptured by the U.S. Treasury.

Please insist on inclusion of this program for small cutting-edge and research-intensive small companies before signing off on this bill. The US used to be leading in finance and biotechnology. Now it is only leading in biotechnology, and unless Congress helps, that lead will be destroyed as well. Both the Canadian and British governments are working on similar support for their biotechnology companies, and we cannot yield the leadership to those nations. Too many high-wage high skilled jobs depend on this industry and too many of us depend on the new medicines that come from biotechnology.

Sincerely,

Just to reiterate, if you don’t believe in your heart that this is the right thing to do, don’t do it. The greatest part about this country is that we all have a say. You don’t have to side with the majority, and you can still fight a battle you know you’re going to lose… no hard feelings.

On the other hand, the first wave of bailout money (the first $350 billion from October) provided funds for ridiculous crap such as wooden toy bows and arrows and a rum company. Given the choice of how this money is allocated - which it will be, somewhere - I’d rather see it do some real good for the larger good. If we don’t tell ‘em where to use it, somebody else will.

While we’re at it, please feel free to modify or append the letter. Or, write your own. Or, write a different one that has to do with something else regarding any stimulus plan. We’ve been unheard long enough - let’s at least be heard this time.

Here are the links you can use to contact your appropriate Senators and Representatives. It probably goes without saying, but I will just to be sure… please don’t use this information to send spam, pointless inflammatory remarks, needless profanity-laden prose, or anything like that. That’s just waste of their time, and yours. The more legitimate your letter is, the more effective it will be.

Senators
http://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm

Representatives
https://writerep.house.gov/writerep/welcome.shtml

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Not Every Index Found Support on Friday

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 7:18 am

All last week I was talking about how badly the bulls needed the indices to find support somewhere around the 50 day moving averages and/or the 20 day moving averages. A small pullback would be fine, but a big one that broke under those support levels could spell trouble. Well, Friday’s nearly-3% drops did indeed let some indices slip under these important moving average lines. The Dow is now under them, while the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 are barely hanging on. The bigger rally could still be salvaged, but this isn’t good news for long positions.

Moreover, the futures are in the red as I write this. They’re only slightly in the red though (less than half a percent), I think fueled partially by losses in Asia (which were ironically fueled by U.S. losses on Friday). I don’t want to over-react to that just yet…. let’s let investors shake off the weekend and regroup before we read too much into the market’s momentum. Remember, the closing price is far more important than the opening price.

On the flipside, you know what was eerily scary about Friday? It wasn’t the size of the loss, but that fact that actual ‘fear’ (not necessarily selling) really wasn’t all that elevated. The VIX barely budged, and was nowhere near what it would have been if that 3% selloff had occurred at any other point in time. Either we’re getting very used to getting smacked around, or the worst is yet to come before a short-term bottom is made. Yikes.

Check back later in the day for a more meaningful look; the pre-market action on Monday is always a coin toss.

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1/9/2009

Market Regains 2/3 of This Morning’s Loss in a Wild Day, Then Gives it Back

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 1:20 pm

I don’t want to keep dwelling on this particular day, but students of the market like myself have to be fascinated - even if only in an academic sense - about the way things took shape today. Here’s the time line…

  • 8:30 AM - A big (yet ridiculous) futures rally following the 8:30 AM announcement about terrible employment numbers that were at least better then expected’
  • 9:30 AM - Market opens respectably higher, surging on high volume
  • 9:32 AM - Market peaks, pulling the rug out from underneath almost everyone
  • 9:55 AM - Market finally hits bottom, having lost about 3% over the span of 23 minutes
  • 2:45 PM - Market has regained most of what was lost, and is not down only about 1%
  • 3:05 PM - Another reversal, this one to the downside…
  • 3:50 PM - We’re at new lows for the day, down more than 2% for the day
  • 4:00 PM - The day ends, gladly

Check out this 5-minute chart of the S&P 500 SPYders; it’s crazy to think that this is now the norm.

Ignore the spikes in the last half hour of trading…those are tick errors from my charting service. Instead, focus on the two most important times of the day….the first half hour, and the last hour. Those are the two points where big decisions are forced. As such, they tend to mean the most (particularly the closing hour).

With all that being said, just like I had my doubts about this morning’s strength, I also have my doubts that this weakness will persist come Monday. You generally don’t want to start making guesses three days in advance though, especially based on a day like today that was 100% driven by emotion.

I’ve got an edition coming out tomorrow that has nothing to do with indices or charts - it’ll be a nice break.
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Proof That You Got Played

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 8:26 am

It was only a few minutes ago that I blogged my suspicions about the futures turning bullish after a terrible jobs and unemployment report. I would have no problem buying into a weak open or strong move lower. However, I just didn’t trust the immediate, optimistic reaction from the futures market about the 8:30 AM employment announcement. As such, I was fully prepared to stay on the sidelines today, waiting for the bottom to fall out.

The first 30 minutes of trading (9:30 AM to 10:00 AM) validate my concern - the market opened strong…. for about two minutes. Then, it’s been nothing but selling, selling, selling.

What happened to all the bullish futures traders between 8:30 AM and 9:32 AM? Nothing happened to them… they never existed. That was a relatively clever (and fairly big) trader or trading team pushing the market up just enough to make everyone think it was going to be a bullish day so they could sell into your buying.

In short, we all got played.

The more you trade, the more you can recognize this tactic, and avoid it. I was burned enough early on in my career to spot that kind of crap now. If you’re not there yet, you’ll get there (nothing teaches better than a loss, eh?)

Now - after 10:00 AM - things look considerably different, for the better. Looks like whoever wanted to dump stocks is done. Now, I’m buying what they shed, and I’m buying it at a pretty decent price.

The lesson to be learned is not to avoid the market. The lesson to be learned is to beat them at their own game - don’t get suckered into a rally that just doesn’t make sense.

The other lesson to keep in your back pocket is that the first half hour of trading is almost always best avoided. It’s considered ‘amateur hour’, but really, it’s the pros taking advantage of the amateurs. If you can align your trades with the pros, then it’s great. If you can’t though, the best thing to do is wait for them to finish their morning activity.

Anyway, here’s the one-minute chart of the Dow. Stark, isn’t it?

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