South American Telecom Still Going Strong
I’ve been a fan of South American telecom stocks for a while now. It’s one of the fastest growing economies in the world, and telecom has been newly-budding there over the last half-decade or so. Sometimes five years of growth is all you get before that respective market is saturated. In this case though, there’s still a massive amount of unmet need - telecom growth in Latin America is still picking up speed.
For those of you who follow our site closely, you’ll already know of my affinity for the few Latin American telecom stocks. We picked Telemig Celular (TMB) a few weeks ago, not just because they offer wireless service in Brazil (the biggest South American market), but because they’re demonstrative of how strong the opportunity is in the market.
Ironically - though happily - TMB’s trading has been halted today after Vivo (another cell phone company in the region) made a tender offer. No word yet on the outcome, but the fact that acquisitions and mergers are starting to become common suggests things are really heating up there.
Take for instance another merger on the verge…the union between Brasil Telecom Participacoes S.A. (BRP) and Telemar Participacoes (TNE), which will by far make them the largest landline player in the country. The union is being encouraged by President President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as an effort to stave off the major role that foreign companies play in their telecom business.
And, there’s certainly plenty of it…in all arenas. Deutsche Telecom (DT) and Vodafone (VOD) are just two foreign companies with eyes on Brazil.
That said, it’s not just Brazil. For that matter, it’s not just land lines. Mexico-based wireless company America Movil (AMX) is the dominant name in mobile phone service for the entire continent, but other outfits are looking to take a bite out of their business.
There are three key reasons I see much more growth ahead for telecom in Latin America. (1) Like I said, the region is still under-served. (2) State governments are more willing to give up control, even if their motivation is money. [See, the government has more to gain from competition and fees than they do by retaining control themselves.] (3) A stronger economy is allowing more residents there to own landlines and cell phones.
Take America Movil as an example of #2 (that governments want more telecom service providers). Movil recently paid $480 million to the country of Ecuador for the right to do business there…and they’re not even the only wireless player in the market.
The point is, if telecom’s growth was winding down in the region, all these companies wouldn’t be jumping through hoops in an effort to get positioned for future growth. I think it’s just getting started.
I mentioned a few company names above, though they’re not the only ones worth a look. As for our Telemig pick, I think it’s good that a buyout offer is on the table…it’s likely to mean more gains for us. I don’t recommend waiting for the merger though (if it happens). If the acquisition is for real, I’m probably going to suggest locking in the gain following any price jump.
Of course, it hasn’t happened yet; Telemig shares aren’t even trading right now. They will be soon enough, so we can reassess the trade then. In the meantime, I’m still bullish on the industry in this region.
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Ideally, I’d like to see a base established here at 63 cents. Actually, ‘ideally’ I’d like to see BMSN race to $5.00. Realistically, I’d accept seeing BMSN set up a base here by retesting 63 cents a few times, yet staying above it. Based on the March/April flat period, this bulletin board stock has proven to be in an ‘up-flat-up-flat’ pattern. It requires patience to be an owner, but it’s better than ‘two steps forward and one step back’ (and certainly better than ‘one step forward and two steps back’).
The nearby chart tells the whole story. We saw a high-volume gain yesterday…though major accumulation isn’t entirely new here. The other thing we saw was new - a move above the 200 day moving average line, for the first time since there’s been enough data to actually calculate a 200 day moving average line.