For those of you old enough to remember what happened in 1974, you certainly remember the infamous jump Evel Knievel tried to make over Snake River Canyon. He got about 1/4 of the way over it; the rest of the trip on the ’sky cycle’ was spent moving vertically….downward. He luckily landed somewhat safely at the bottom of the canyon, without even landing in the water. When it was all said and done (after the 600 foot drop to the bottom) he had horizontally traveled about 40 feet from his starting point. The first 1.2 seconds of the stunt was the only real highlight…the part right up until he was off the launch ramp.

So far, Bernanke’s $200 billion purchase of a market recovery reminds me a lot of Evel Knievel’s Snake River Canyon….a brilliant beginning, but quick turn-around into an expensive freefall. It was supposed to be bullish for the market? Since Tuesday’s close, we’re now lower by 2.3%.

I hate to gloat - and I may end up eating my words later - but this is what I warned you about on Tuesday after watching the Fed’s December auction fail miserably.

Believe me, I’d love to be wrong…I’m trying to sell my house (condo, actually), and need any help I can get. I fear the worst though.

I was fully prepared to have a cynical laugh when I stumbled cross this story, but after reading through it, I have to offer some praise to the online version of the Wall Street Journal. Though about two months late, the WSJ has basically conceded we’re in a recession. The consensus decision came from a survey of economists not employed by the Journal.

I don’t want to repeat what you can read for yourself in the analysis (the link is below), though I will point out this is a very thorough white-paperesque take on ALL of the key economic factors (inflation, interest rates, employment, etc.) For those of you who love crazy details - like me - each specific answer in the survey is logged. So, you can really drill down into the numbers.

The forecasts mentioned by the same economists in the survey are as overly-optimistic as you might expect - most everyone is looking for a trough soon, and a recovery by the latter part of 2008. I’m not sure I agree, as I feel the Fed is still locked into a high-inflation/low-rates scenario, and the average consumer can remain weary for a while once they get that way. But, we’ll see….

Anyway, here’s the actual economic data overview, and here’s the accompanying story.

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