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Small Cap Network Blog

3/12/2008

Surprising Strength, Surprising Weakness - What’s Hot Or Not?

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 2:41 pm

Please don’t ask me why footwear stocks like Nike (NKE), Deckers (DECK) and Skechers (SKX) were up so firmly on Wednesday when the market was moderately in the red - I don’t really know either. There were a whole slew of industries with gains I can’t quite figure out right now. In fact, there are a few industries I was surprised to see in the red.

Normally I can determine and even predict where the hot and cold sectors are within the stock market. Lately though, the market’s been throwing some interesting curve balls. Here are the notable wild pitches over the last month (and just for reference, the S&P 500 is down 2.9% for the last month):

Winners

  • Biotech is up 1.5%. Not great, but a drastic turnaround for a group that was the first to fall a few weeks earlier.
  • Industrial machines are up 1.5% for the last month as well, which doesn’t exactly scream recession.
  • Computers, up 5.0% in the last month? Yeah, I double-checked it….these stocks have kicked a little butt, but….
  • …they didn’t kick as much butt as office electronics stocks did, which are up 7.4% for the same timeframe.
  • Tobacco stocks are up 2.8%. No surprise there - these stocks are the prototypical holdings in a bearish environment.
  • Food stocks are up 2.0%. Ditto the tobacco comments.
  • Water utility stocks gained a huge 10.8% over the last month. That’s the top performer among all the major industry groups. That’s a huge hint of a bear market as well. Did you know that during the last bear market, the average water stock gained as much as the NASDAQ lost?
  • Energy and basic materials - metals in particular - have been the key strongholds for most portfolios, and both point to a bearish mood as well. Oil racing to nearly $110 per barrel didn’t hurt the cause either.

Losers

OK, most stocks and groups were losers; I’ll try and limit my listings to the significant ones.

  • Packaging/paper stocks fell about 4.0%….a surprise, since they tend to benefit from a bear market like most other materials do.
  • Electric utilities are lower by 18%, which pales in comparison to the 21% loss for gas utilities. So much for the safety of this sector.
  • Automobile stocks are lower by 22% for the last month. This may not be your father’s Oldsmobile, but these auto stock prices look like the same prices your father paid for ‘em.
  • Telecom’s down 13%.
  • Financials are down an average of 8.5%, with banks and lenders leading the selloff. I’ll refrain from beating this dead horse any further.
  • Healthcare providers are off by 14% in just the last month.
  • Software stocks lost 10.8% last month. 

So What?

More and more I look for group strength (or weakness) as much as an individual stock opportunity. Maybe you can find something you hadn’t thought of in all of this mess.

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