It’s about time. Just a few weeks after announcing the first human implant of their next-generation coated heart stent, small cap biotech company MIV Therapeutics (MIVT) seemed to fall of the face of the earth - partially bringing their stock with them. Then today out of nowhere, the stock has turned into a rocket thanks to some only mediocre news…the company is now collaborating with orthopedic device-maker Smith & Nephew. The two companies intend to co-develop drug-delivering orthopedic devices. The stock jumped more than 15% on the news, on the most volume we’ve seen since July.

Don’t get me wrong - I think MIVT is an undervalued stock. I just don’t know if the Smith & Nephew news is a real reason for the stock to finally perk up. It could be months or even years before the two organizations can start co-manufacturing a thing.

What I really think is that MIVT was ready and waiting to rebound; all the market needed was an excuse. That’s fine - if that’s what it takes, so be it.

Though I’m interested in owning an undervalued stock, based on the recent struggle for this stock, I’d personally rather see the 50 day line crossed again at 44 cents before taking the plunge. It’s only a couple of pennies above where we are now, so it’s not like you’d have to leave a lot on the table to get a little extra certainty under your belt (if there’s even such a thing as ‘certainty’ anymore).

If you wanted to add to the certainty, you could even wait to see MIVT cross the 46 cent mark. That’s where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement line is.

I don’t know what’s up with this micro cap company in terms of news…we haven’t heard a peep out of Stockgroup (SWEB) since the middle of August when they reported their Q2 earnings. However, a lack of news hasn’t prevented the stock from trading into a rather interesting situation. Let’s apply a little technical analysis and see if we can figure out where SWEB’s chart is trying to go.

The first thing I see is support at the 200 day moving average line (green, on our chart). In fact, it’s almost bizarre how precise the support has been since the line was first remet on August 16th. Along with the 200 day average line, I also (now) see a short-term support line (blue).

On the upper side of the chart we’re seeing the opposite situation…resistance at the 50 day line (purple). At the same time, we can also see a long-term straight resistance line (red) taking shape.

The net result of all this support and resistance is called a wedge - one that’s coming to a point quite quickly, in Stockgroup’s case.

This has the potential to be a good for bad thing. Obviously SWEB will have to break through one side of the triangle or the other sooner or later. And as far as we’re concerned, that’ll be sooner…there’s not much room left in the tip if this wedge. The question is, which direction?

While nothing is ever set in stone, I have to vote for a bullish break. The company has been doing well, and when comparing opposing technical (i.e. chart) forces, it’s usually better to side with the longer-term trend lines.

Either way, this should be fun to watch unfold. If you’re a speculator and/or fan of the company, the time to step in is before anything starts to happen; it may happen too fast to effectively chase it. 

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It’s been nearly two hours since Spicy Pickle (SPKL) has started trading today, following its official and publicized launch as a bulletin board stock. I have to say, I’m pleasantly surprised by the limited volatility. We did indeed see a gap at the open, which so far has remained unfilled. While I generally don’t like gaps (as they tend to act like a vacuum), this one may end up going unfilled. I’m not making that bet yet….just talking.

More importantly, we didn’t see this thing bolt out of the gate and run up to the $1.40 area. Giant moves like that just invite profit-taking, which pushes the stock lower…and usually just as quickly. When that happens, the market doesn’t know what to think or do. Instead, we’re seeing nice sustained strength.

I still think it could take a few days for SPKL to really find its groove, but the gentle start following Friday’s action eliminates a great deal of the volatility risk.

Maybe the answer is to buy a little now and then buy a little later…hedging your entry.

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Well, here we are just a few days out from Ben Bernanke’s 1/2 point rate cut…bigger than I - or most investors - imagined it would be. The market got what it wanted, in spades. The market is likely to also end up getting something it didn’t want either….inflation. It was already a worry, but this will only fan the flames. (If you missed my original rant, click here to see my pre-cut blog entry.)

Anyway, a couple things came to mind afterwards.

The first is, where does this leave the Fed to go? Another 1/4 point cut in late October is possible, but were we in such bad shape that the Fed had to take such drastic action in September? We should have never gotten to that point in the first place. All this did was shake things up - and make things trickier.

My second thought…another cut (which by the way the 2/3 of the market is expecting) would be well-embraced by investors now, but what about the longer-term result? I’m talking about the U.S. dollar.

There’s a reason the dollar is at record lows. (See the chart below). It’s not just interest rates, but that’s the biggest reason. More rate cuts are going to drive it even lower. When overseas goods start to cost more on a relative basis, the effect is felt as inflation to American consumers. For the most part, that’s us and the majority of our readers.

BUT………

Here’s where I’m going to depart from the majority opinion though…I’m not nearly as concerned about as inflation as other folks. Why? Ever heard the phrase “Do as I say, not as I do“? Despite the fact that inflation is said to stifle spending, it doesn’t by very much. U.S. consumers have a knack for consuming regardless of the cost (barring some very rare and extreme cases).

More than that, despite what the media commentators would have you think, there’s no statistical correlation between a weak dollar and weak market returns. Nor is there a correlation between high inflation and poor market returns. (I promise - click here to see.)

So what’s my point? Here it is in a nutshell…I’m looking for short-term inflation (few months) to rise while the Fed continues to lower rates. I’m looking for the dollar to get even weaker during the same time. I’m looking for gold (and other commodities) to rise accordingly. (See the other chart below.)

All of those are short-term (multi-month) views though.

In the bigger picture, I expect the dollar to stay weak for years. That’s a good thing though, as it will unwind at least some of our ridiculous trade deficit. I also expect the Fed Funds rate to stabilize around 4.0, and maybe even ratchet up a couple of times after that. I expect inflation to stay persistent - though not rampant - for years…and I think gold will stay firm side-by-side.

And more than anything else, I expect stocks to do well even in the face of all the things that are supposed to be bad for the market. I also expect to see stocks pull back when it seems like they shouldn’t. Sounds contrarian, but I’ve seen it before.

Bottom Line - Don’t get too bogged down by all the buzz surrounding interest rates, inflation, and the dollar. To the average trader it may have some impact with entry and exit timing. To the average investor, it has little impact whatsoever.

By the way, I’m now one of the 2/3 expecting a rate cut in October…a change from my prior stance.

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Well, you guys have had a couple of days to think about this small cap stock. And, based on the bullish response we’re seeing as the week starts out, you’re not the only ones. Of course, we’re talking about Spicy Pickle (SPKL) - the micro cap trading idea we presented to you Saturday morning. If you missed it, be sure to review that edition by clicking here.

Anyway, I just had a thought about all the buying interest I see this morning….watch out for a big gap. SPKL closed at 69 cents on Friday, but it could open at $1.00 (or maybe even higher?) today right out of the gate. I don’t really know how long - or even if - such a strong gap would hold, but I don’t know that I’d want to leap without looking first.

Bottom line: If things are wild at the open, I’d use a limit order. If you don’t get in at first, then you can start adjusting the limit. Or, be patient. As strong as it is or will be, it’s still worth trying to pick and choose your entry. Personally, I’d try and set a limit of 80 cents, and then raise or lower it as needed.

Anyway, if you have thoughts or feedback about SPKL, this is the place to leave them. Just click below. 

By the way, if you didn’t get a chance to see the video, I really think you should. It may answer any final questions you  have about Spicky Pickle. Just click here to see it.

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With all the talk about CEL-SCI’s (CVM) Multikine cancer treatment, it’s easy to forget they’re also working on a vaccine adjuvant platform that could ultimately be effective against several types of infections….including hepatitis B, malaria, herpes, and encephalitis, just to name a few. The name of the adjuvant is CEL-1000. If it rings a bell, it may be because this small cap biotech company’s CEL-1000 technology really came to light in early 2006 when it was realized it could be an effective tool in the war against the bird flu.

On Monday, CEL-SCI updated the market on CEL-1000’s status by releasing details about research done using the vaccine adjuvant against the hepatitis B virus. In a lab setting, it was found to increase the antibody signal in a mouse by 40% by the 28th day of observation. The study also determined what may be the ideal time of dosage, and degree of dosage.

The ‘bigger picture’ implication is simple enough…CEL-1000 continues to gain validity as a broad vaccine adjuvant. As more research refines how CEL-1000 can and should be used, the potential appeal to the market expands.

For the details of the news, click here.

As for CVM shares, the patient went into a critical status this summer, but appears to have stabilized over the last month.

It finally looked like CVM might get something going in April. Then between May and August, we saw shares slide from a peak of $1.08 to a low of $0.57. Since hitting $0.57 though, we’ve started to see the waters being tested again. Specifically, we’re not seeing a string of lower lows anymore. In fact, the 50 day line was tested as resistance three times over the last three weeks. So, clearly somebody is interested.

As for whether or not I think the worst is over, let’s just say I’m keeping a close eye on CVM for that possibility. The downtrend has stopped and a wedge has formed. The wedge will have to close up sometime, and force this chart out of its confines. That could be good or bad (bullish or bearish), but if it’s bullish I want to be ready. For me, the 50 day line may be the make-or-break point.

A few days ago I mentioned I was a little relieved Titan Global (TTGL) was finally pulling back a bit. The run from July’s low of 95 cents to September’s peak of $2.05 was huge, and the chart said things were getting a little - ok, a lot - overbought. I was hoping we would get a nice, healthy pullback all the way to about $1.72. Why? That’s where the first Fibonacci retracement line was, using July’s lows as a baseline. (The Fib lines are the blue horizontal lines.)

Well, even though we didn’t get that full correction (the stock only made it back to $1.84), it seems as if the selling we did get was enough to let the buyers reload. TTGL appears to be working on its next bullish leg. We’ve seen higher closes and higher trading ranges over the last three days. Volume has remained fairly strong. The jury is still out on today, but I’m still thinking the bulls are back on track here.

The one thing I’d rather see….a touch of the 20 day moving average line. On our chart, it’s blue. That was a good restart point in September, as it provided support for the second big bullish push. Of course, ‘wanting’ and ‘getting’ are two different things. And, the market doesn’t seem to mind TTGL still being a little overbought.

All that being said, look what happens when you move the baseline of the Fibonacci lines to August’s low of $1.34. All of a sudden the retracement to $1.84 is a full 38.2% pullback, satisfying my ‘full correction’ pseudo-requirement to start another upside move.

I don’t know if one set of Fibonacci lines is better than another, but I do know it looks like this stock is itching to go higher. A pullback all the way to the 20 day line from here would be a screaming buy in my book, but I’m not sure we’ll get that chance. 

When we suggested Overstock.com (NASDAQ: OSTK) as a trading idea a little more than a week ago, we had no idea this little Internet stock would so quickly boost our reader’s investment portfolios. Since the 7th of September, OSTK shares have gained 7.3%. Moreover, this stock seems to still be gaining momentum. Hopefully many of you reacted to our investment recommendation.

If you didn’t, don’t sweat it - we believe this stock still has a ton of potential from here. We modestly set our target at $30.20, which would be only about a 32.4% gain from our pick price of $22.80. However, having traded in the high $70’s in late 2004, we wouldn’t be a bit surprised to see OSTK get well past the $30’s and closer to the 70’s again within a few months, if not weeks. (As such, don’t be shocked if we cancel the target later and just hold onto this rocketship.)

The trick at this point is timing. We’ve seen six straight days of gains from Overstock, which may even be pushing the limits of the strongest of stocks. Though we expect more of the same here, a pullback to the 20 day moving average (currently at $22.70) might actually be something healthy - and an entry opportunity.

If for some reason that small correction never materializes, then the ball’s in your court. Just keep in mind we’ve got a handful of trading ideas scheduled for the next few weeks, so you’re not going to miss out on much if you didn’t grab this one.

I also think it’s worth mentioning birds of a feather flock together. In other words, Overstock isn’t the only Internet stock on a roll. The Merrill Lynch Internet HOLDR’s (AMEX: HHH) exchange-traded-fund has also been on the move - since July of 2006. How strong have they been? Try a 32.5% gain over the last twelve months. That didn’t create any overnight millionaires, but it sure beats the heck out of the S&P 500’s 14.1% during that time.

If Overstock isn’t quite your bag but ETF’s are, I’d recommend taking a look at HHH. It’s easy to own, and last month’s pullback to the 200 day line could mean they’re still a bargain.

Either way, I think web-based businesses and Internet stocks like Overstock could provide some major juice for your investment portfolio. That’s not ‘advice’ - just an opinion.

With most of the stock market’s attention focused on the Federal Reserve and the decision to cut rates now, later, or not at all, I think a lot of traders have missed the beneficiary of the indecision and ensuing inflation worry - gold. I know it’s not part of our normal small cap fare, but any money-making trend is worth a look as far as I’m concerned. And what’s the news? Gold futures, after taking the previous sixteen months off, seem to be back on the rise. 

The part of the chart that caught my eye was when futures moved above 701.90. They had struggled there a couple of times since mid-2006 (and 691 as well), but blew right past those levels just last week. Though gold futures are still under last year’s peak of 751.80, the move may still be the beginning of a breakout.

What brought it on? A lot of experts would say the dynamic between interest rates and inflation - and the Fed - has created an ideal environment for gold. I don’t entirely disagree, but there’s a flaw in the logic. Gold’s an inflation hedge, right? Inflation was contained between 2002 and 2006, thanks to a series of interest rate increases. But, gold was rising then.

Now the Fed is talking about lowering rates. (OK, the Fed isn’t talking any more about it than they usually do…the market is talking about it.) Inflation is still basically contained. But, gold is on the rise again? I think it’s the worry of inflation that could become rampant if the Fed cuts rates that’s driving the speculation.

It begs the question…what’s supposed to be bad for gold? There may well be a relationship in all this mess, but I don’t think it’s a very consistent one. If someone can show me a valid relationship, please do.

Personally, I think the fickleness of traders is playing a role in the recent ascension. Gold wasn’t en vogue when a hedge wasn’t deemed necessary. I think it’s the worry of inflation that could become rampant of the Fed cuts rates that’s driving the speculation, rather than inflation itself. Now with the pot getting stirred again, the uptrend is renewed. 

The thing is, that’s good enough for me. I’ve made more money on hollow hype and unmerited selloffs than I have by owning a quality stock for a long time, or shorting a consistently poor stock. So, if gold’s going higher I want to jump on…I don’t care why. (Of course, that’s the trader in me - not the investor.) Therefore…

This isn’t an official trade recommendation; this is just my sandbox because sometimes I like to dabble outside of stocks. But, I’m setting a target of 810 for gold….totally arbitrary. My first checkpoint is that peak of 751.80. Let’s say the stop is at 702.

Do we chase it here? I don’t know. I hate chasing anything, so I’m thinking buy on the dip. That’s just me though.

Either way, let’s just see if Bernanke comes through for us…or if he even matters.

By the way, if you don’t have a futures account, there’s a pretty good ETF to let you play with the idea. StreetTracks hosts a gold trust (NYSE: GLD) that’s liquid, and a good approximation to gold futures.

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Actually, I don’t think it’s a question at all…though some people do. I think the questions worth asking the Federal Reserve are by how much, and how quickly? The majority of the market (according to the Fed Funds futures) is betting on Bernanke making a 50 basis point reduction in the Federal Reserve rate by the end of October. However, there are two Fed meetings between now and then….Tuesday’s (September 18th), and October’s.

Personally, I think it’s a dangerous game to play…especially if you have a short-term memory. More than one Fed chairman has fooled us into thinking he’s worried about something - and then really doesn’t back it up with action. Just as a reminder, the most recent GDP report was quite strong, and inflation still remains under long-term norms. Yes, Ben Bernanke has pretty much preached the same ‘gloom and doom’ sermon for months. You know what though? He’s always worried about inflation and recession. The thing is, he hasn’t seemed worried enough yet to do anything about it.

In any case, the market expects a 1/4 point cute, or should I say ‘expected’ it. Now a lot of traders are asking for a 1/2 point cut. No big deal…unless they don’t get it. If the Fed disappoints (and ‘disappoint’ is all relative now), I’m not going to get a warm fuzzy. September is historically a poor month for stocks to begin with. Throw in frustration over not getting a wanted rate cute - and notice I didn’t say ‘needed’ rate cut - and I see a lot of things that could go bad tomorrow. Even a 1/4 point might be considered a negative.

The thorn in my side is how the market has started to dictate what the Fed does. If they’re not happy, they pout with a selloff, and we certainly can’t have that now…can we? Damn the longer-term consequences. That’s the game though - I guess we all have to play it, like it or not.

So, now that I have all of that out of my system, here’s what I see coming…..a 1/4 point cut, and that’s it. And, it may not happen until October…which means it may not happen tomorrow. And like I said, I doubt the market will like it. 

Yeah, yeah - I know about the jobs number. Folks, let me tell you this…lower interest rates isn’t going to boost that jobs number for months. The Fed sees no purpose in lowering rates to that end. Of course, I also picked the Bears over the Colts last Super Bowl, so what do I know?

Stay tuned - I’ll have some more thoughts after the fact when all the Fed language is put through the ringer. In the meantime, anybody else have any thoughts on the matter?

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Figures. This micro cap stock seemed to have so much potential when we first introduced it as a trading idea a few months ago. Now, however, Zupintra Corporation (OTCBB: ZUPC) seems to be on hold for what looks like could be indefinitely.

This small telecom outfit was planning on generating revenue by September, once they started providing termination services in South America for the major telecom carriers…but they need letters of credit to offer the service (a quirky telecom requirement). Unfortunately, those letters of credit are still nowhere in site. And, according to the company’s most recent press release, there’s not even an estimate about when they’ll be ready.

As far as we’re concerned, this doesn’t change our take on Zupintra. We put the stock on the shelf a while back when it first become clear there was going to be a delay in getting this piece of the puzzle in place…a decision equally supported by a deteriorating stock that has long since fallen under our suggested exit level.

Our last opinion was ’show me’. Meaning what? We’re willing to keep the company on the radar, but after too many delays and broken promises, we’re only going to respond to proof that they can do what they say they can. To do that, they need (aside from the letters of credit) to start generating revenue. If that starts to happen, then we’ll discuss the possibility of ZUPC being a solid small cap stock idea. Until that time though, we’re not going to give them the benefit of the doubt. Needless to say, their recent news isn’t a step in the right direction with us.

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Like I said a few days ago (and a few days before that), it looks like something is going on with BioCurex (OTCBB: BOCX). Shares of this small-cap biotech had been up by more than 20% today…the highest levels in weeks. Volume is through the roof. And yet, no news. Based on what we know about this small company and its cancer test research, I’m more and more convinced something big is on the way.

I wish I had something more concrete to say, but I don’t. I just know the 80/20 rule applies to trading as well….80% of stock’s gains are made during 20% of their life. Personally, I think we’re entering one of those 20% scenarios. Where or how it will all come out is still anybody’s guess. But, I’ve seen $1.32 act as resistance on the more recent side of the chart. A move past that could spark a rally to $2.00.

Be prepared for volatility (i.e. stay nimble), but I like our chances here.

We finally got an update from CEL-SCI Corporation (AMEX: CVM) about its cancer therapy drug Multikine. The update came in the form of a letter to shareholders from CEO Geert Kersten, and serves as a nice recap of how they intend to develop a biotechnology known as immunotherapy and turn it into a one-of-a-kind treatment for head and neck cancer. Though scientific in nature, the letter looks at their work-to-date through the eyes of a biotech stock investor.

If you’ve been along for the CEL-SCI ride since the beginning - and have kept up with our coverage - we don’t think you’ll find anything new in the letter. But, if you’re not familiar with what the company is doing and want a full explanation of why this stock could make for a good longer-term biotech investment, it may do you some good to read it. Just click here. The premise and promise behind the biotechnology are pretty amazing.

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This one is turning out to be one of our hottest stock trading ideas of the year. Titan Global Holdings (OTCBB: TTGL) is up 80% since we first picked it on January 13th, and it seems like every day now we’re learning a new reason why it’s on a roll. The latest addition to the collection is their 2008 revenue forecast…they’re looking for $747 million in fiscal 2008. Just for comparison, they did about $109 million in fiscal 2006. At that rate, this small-cap stock may be a large-cap stock sooner than you know it.

For all the details, just click here. The news release breaks down all the major pieces of this conglomerate (telecom, PCB, energy, card services, Titan Global brands) into their respective sales potential.

As for the chart, what’s not to like if you were in the trade when we first told you about it? Or for that matter, even if you got in when we pounded the table again on August 1st you should still be well up.

If you didn’t get in, I don’t know that now would be the best time. This stock has rallied from $1.05 to about $2.12 in a little less than six weeks…a virtual hot potato, and deserving of a break.

I think the $1.70 area might be a great re-entry point, which would be a 38.2% retracement of the recent move. By the time we got back there, the 20 day moving average will be able to provide some support. On the other hand, I was looking for a pullback a few days ago, and the stock just kept right on going like the Energizer bunny. This time though, it looks really over-extended.

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We first started to talk about BioCurex (OTCBB: BOCX) and this possibility in an August 16th blog entry, which just so happens to be the pivot point for the entire market. By that time, the stock had already posted a few days worth of solid gains on stronger volume. Since then, we’ve seen some outstanding follow-through. I think this upward thrust may finally be the real deal.

Why? Some of the barriers from before didn’t hold the stock down this time. Namely, BOCX is well above all of its key moving average lines. We haven’t seen this much ’stick-to-it-iveness’ since early 2006 (and even that was a half-hearted move).  The volume behind the rally seems to be growing as well.

Each day that passes with even just an incremental gain, I believe, makes BOCX a little less risky. I already liked it quite a bit, but I think the market is finally warming up to the idea as well - now that there’s something to build on.

The reason for the sudden strength? Ultimately, I think investors are finally realizing BioCurex is actually pretty close to getting their diagnostic research to a monetizable status. The recent press releases have all alluded to it. However, there’s another possible reason that’s been brought up by a couple of our readers.

Keep in mind we’re not commenting on the validity of this rationale, nor are we saying the logic is problem-free. We are, however, laying it all out there - in the interest of letting our readers know the facts as well as the potential rumors that may be influencing BOCX’s trading level.

And the rumor? Some Abbott (NYSE: ABT) employees are scheduled to speak at an ISOBM (International Society for Oncodevelopmental Biology & Medicine) conference in mid-September. Their topic, however, features RECAF - a BioCurex development - and its use in radioimminoassays and chemiluminescent assays. If it rings a bell, it might be because BioCurex went through quite a bit to convert their RECAF-based test into a chemiluminescent-friendly tool….at Abbott’s request.

The assumption is that this bodes well for BioCurex and its RECAF cancer test, suggesting it works, and is finally ready to use.

At the same time, we do want to tell you BioCurex has said nothing to this effect. Then again, they couldn’t if they wanted to. Biotech companies who are presenting something new at such a conference are often prohibited from making a public statement about the presentation (or its purpose) until afterwards.

The risk to the assumption is simple - maybe BioCurex isn’t saying anything just because there’s nothing to say. We do find it curious though. This is an obscure connect-the-dots, yet coincides quite well with when the stock started to move. If there’s nothing to it, a lot of people have been fooled.

Given that BioCurex makes for an outstanding speculative idea even without the ISOBM rumor, I know I’d sure be interested in taking a swing. The chart alone tells me something is brewing.