Market Summary
| Dow |
12745.88 |
-120.90 |
(-0.94%) |
| Nasdaq |
2445.52 |
+0.00 |
(+0.00%) |
| Russell 2K |
720.05 |
+0.00 |
(+0.00%) |
| S&P 500 |
1388.28 |
+0.00 |
(+0.00%) |
| S&P 100 |
639.20 |
+0.00 |
(+0.00%) |
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8/30/2007
I can make money if everyone else thinks stocks should go up. I can even make money if everyone thinks stocks should go down. One of the biggest challenges (maybe near impossible) I face as an investor is making money when the market doesn’t know what to think. I believe this is one of those times.
Stocks got whacked on Tuesday. Last month’s Fed meeting minutes were blamed, as the credit crisis was accented. Stocks fully rebounded on Wednesday thanks to some help from Bernanke. Plus, higher-than-planned unemployment on top of a severe decline in housing sales/prices was likely to mean the Fed was going to cut rates.
By the end of Thursday - and based on the size of the recovery move - I was banking on Tuesday’s action being a washout day, clearing a path for more of the upside momentum jump-started on Wednesday.
So what happens? International stocks followed the lead, yet as we head into today’s open, U.S. stocks are in the red. Why? Now the rate cut isn’t quite as certain, since the GDP from last quarter was the strongest it’s been in a year.
Tensions are high, and the market is fueled by every single piece of news that comes out. The thing is, today’s news doesn’t trump yesterday’s news. Yesterday’s news doesn’t trump the news from the previous day either. The market doesn’t know what to do yet….a situation I feel is best left avoided.
So at this point, I’m inclined to sit things out and let everyone else do this dance. (Actually, I’m always inclined to do that…..just more so right now.) Stocks will get their bearings soon enough. I can’t worry about this intra-day noise. I’m still bullish based on the things I saw a couple of weeks ago. Plus, I’ve seen more upward pressure than bearish pressure, despite this morning and Tuesday.
Just look at the chart - it tells the tale. My line in the sand is still the lows from Tuesday. As long as they hold up, I feel we’re ok. Stay tuned.
By the way, if you’re wondering why things are so volatile, it’s mostly a lack of volume. A little push goes a long way when most of the market is on vacation - there’s little to no counter-action. It’s yet one more reason to take it all with a grain of salt.
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8/29/2007
The final chapter of this story is all but written, though everyone should have put the book down long ago. However, if you’re still reading it, the saga ends in disaster.
OK, enough with the dramatic metaphors. Let’s just get to it.
It looks like the final nail has been hammered into Orchestra Therapeutics’ (OTCBB: OCHTE) coffin. Their remaining trial drug research - on the autoimmune disease treatment called Neurovax - has been discontinued, most employees have been laid off, and Dr. O’Neill’s employment has been terminated. The only thing left to do is turn off the lights on the way out. I don’t believe there will be an Orchestra Therapeutics at all by the end of the year.
The company is looking to sell its research and real estate, then pay off their creditors with those proceeds. If there’s anything left, shareholders will get it. Personally, I don’t think there will be anything left. So…
If you ignored our original suggested stop and rode this thing lower, I think this batch of news should be enough motivation to get out while there’s still something left to get. You can bail out at 25 cents as of today, which is a heck of a lot better than nothing.
What a debacle. These guys ended up being a joke, and an embarrassment to Jonas Salk’s name. Failure to find successful biotechnologies would have been one thing…and even acceptable. Orchestra failed in terms of letting investors know what was going on and what the risks were, which is completely unacceptable.
Needless to say, though we were effectively done watching the company several weeks ago, we’re officially ending coverage now. We suggest any remaining owners go ahead and dump this one and at least benefit from the tax break.
For the official word from the company, click here. It was quietly buried in an 8-K.
8/28/2007
Want to know why I think a ton of investors made a mistake yesterday? They responded to the consumer confidence number.
Don’t get me wrong here - it’s interesting information. It’s just that I’ve seen the data steer investors wrong far more often than steer them right. You might recall the last time I pretty much said the same thing almost a year ago to the day…..in August 29th’s (2006) newsletter “Consumer Confidence - A Lousy Market Indicator”. Shortly before that edition, the confidence level fell to a then eight-month low of 99.9. Terrible news, right? Hardly - the market gained 7.3% over the next three months.
That being said,you may have guessed what’s coming next. The conference board announced on Tuesday the August consumer confidence reading of 105 was yet another multi-month low. I have to wonder if it’s going to be a non-problem again….or maybe even the beginning of more upside. After all, the consumer confidence level has a strong history of being incredibly bleak at major bottoms:
- March 2003 - Consumer confidence hits an 11 year low. One year later, the S&P 500 had gained 32.7%.
- October 2005 - Consumer confidence hits a 2 year low. Less than a year later, the S&P 500 was up 7.5%, despite a 3% retracement in May.
- August 1990 through October 1994 - Never once did the consumer confidence reading reach above the benchmark 100 level. However, during this time, the S&P 500 gained 46.5%.
Scenarios where confidence was strong right in front of major market pullbacks are plentiful too, but I’ll spare you by not spelling it out here.
Stocks may well end up sinking further…..much further. But, it will have nothing to do with the current consumer confidence level. Despite what it’s supposed to be - an opinion about the future - it’s much more of an indication of feelings about the recent past.
I think the micro-interpretation of every word from the Federal Reserve’s official meeting minutes has gotten out of hand. Yes, there’s some difference between ‘might’ and ‘could’ and ‘is likely to’, but it seems like sometimes we miss the overall message - or lack thereof. Check out this quote taken from the minutes of the August 7th meeting:
“However, a further deterioration in financial conditions could not be ruled out and, to the extent such a development could have an adverse effect on growth prospects, might require a policy response,”
Let me paraphrase that for you…the Fed currently has no reason to lower interest rates, but if things change in the future, they reserve the right to do so.
If it rings a bell, it’s because that’s pretty much the party line anymore. They’re always worried about inflation, deflation, and stability - that’s their job. Personally, I think they could have just changed the date on the prior meeting’s minutes to use as August’s. This wasn’t new, nor ‘news’.
What I like (and the reason I even bring the Fed up at all) is something else found in the Fed meeting minutes. These guys are getting nervous about a shaky stock market, and that’s not even their charged task.
While facilitating ‘easy credit’ may reproduce the same subprime problems from earlier this year, I think the Fed thinks it’s better than the alternative - which is a complete economic meltdown started by a market meltdown If we get a rate cut - and most traders are now planning on it - the market could go hog-wild. That’s why I’m more hesitant to be out of stocks rather than just take a few lumps by just riding things out.
8/27/2007
I know I keep coming back to this name, but, it is what it is. And what it is right now - as far as BioCurex (OTCBB: BOCX) is concerned - seems to be pretty good.
Just take a look at the chart. After establishing a base around 46 cents in late July and early August, we’ve seen a persistent push….a push big enough to get the stock up to its current level of 63 cents (a 37% move, by the way). The volume behind the gain has been pretty respectable too. And, the last of the main moving average lines I watch, which is the 200 day line in this case, has now been surpassed.
Yet there’s no news to support the effort? Well, I suspect there’s some news brewing - we just haven’t heard it yet. Things like this rarely happen out of nowhere. I feel somebody knows something about something, and at least feels good enough about it to put a few bucks on the table. If that is indeed the case, I think we all at least owe it to ourselves to pay attention….just in case any rumor becomes true.
That being said, I’m not completely behind this chart’s potential just yet. BOCX has handed over a couple of fake-outs in recent months, and I’m not going to take the bait earlier than I have to. However, I will point out this is one of the most promising moves I’ve seen in months.
Aggressive speculators may already be in a position. As for anyone a little more skeptical (which is myself at this point), I think a close above last week’s and today’s high of 65 cents could really wipe away some of the perceived risk.
Either way, it’s well worth watching.
Frankly, I’m not a bit surprised. Moreover, I think this could pretty much wipe up any lingering credibility issues. What I’m talking about is Titan Global Holdings (OTCBB: TTGL). It’s currently a bulletin board stock, but plans on applying to trade as a NASDAQ-listed stock by the end of September.
The end result of such a fortunate move is simple….better visibility, credibility, liquidity, etc. You know - all the things you want from your stocks.
It’s not a sealed seal yet, though I don’t believe Titan would bother applying if they didn’t think they were going to win listing approval. And yes, I see it as yet one more reason to own TTGL.
For the full story, click here.
Are you a subscriber to the Small Cap Network newsletter? If not, you’re missing out on some great trading ideas and exclusive market commentary. To sign up, just go to the top right corner of any page of our website. You’ll be joining thousands of other subscribers who have already benefited from our news and views.
8/20/2007
As I promised in last week’s edition ‘Five Investment Mega-Trends’, today I’ve got a list of five stocks I feel are well-positioned to capitalize on the macro-sized themes. There are certainly dozens - maybe hundreds - of stocks that may end up seeing some major appreciation thanks to these trends. But, for some reason or another, these five just compelled me.
Keep in mind the current charts and fundies may or may not look great right now. More specifically, I don’t see much ‘trade’ value in all of these names. Rather, I see these ideas as core, multi-year holdings….though I never get married to a stock.
Materials: Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold Inc (NYSE: FCX) shares are in the S&P 500, yet it’s far from a household name. I like this company as a diversified holding - I believe gold is still in a long-term bull market. And, I think the copper crunch has barely even begun to be felt. At the same time, Freeport is one of the rare mining outfits that’s actually improving their top and bottom lines on a consistent basis. The P/E of 9.0 and ROE of 25.6% are outstanding within this group, and the stock’s recent pullback may make for a nice entry point.
India: Remember my rationalization that Indian financial services companies were an obscure opportunity? I’m sticking to my guns here by saying I like ICICI Bank Ltd. (NYSE: IBN). This Indian bank is actually a full-service financial institution - loans, investment banking, insurance, credit cards, etc. Their earnings growth over the last three years has been enormous too, currently improving at an annual rate of 25%. Profit margins are a nice 13.7%. The more doors India opens to the rest of the world, the greater their financial industries will grow….and ICICI appears to be at the front of the line.
Food: Archer-Daniels-Midland Inc. (NYSE: ADM), unlike Freeport, is pretty much a household name. It’s not sexy in the least, but solid all the same. Earnings are growing like crazy, and the ROE of 16.3% ain’t too shabby either - for a food distributor. The one thing I’m not totally wild about are thin margins. But, that’s the biz. When the demand starts to really outpace the supply, I look for margins to improve.
Aging Population: There really aren’t a few pure ways to play this idea, but one I like is Manor Care (NYSE: HCR). They operate a variety of health care services, ranging from assisted living to rehabilitation services to nursing homes. Their numbers look pretty good right now….the P/E of 28 may be a little much, but an ROE 27.9% and consistent growth offsets that in my view. I also think all the numbers are apt to improve over the next several years.
It’s All About Me: The example I used last week about rampant materialism was clothing - young people want to look hip and trendy, and they’re willing pay most any price to do so. They’re also willing to charge to do it. If you can reap big margins on overpriced clothes, and then turn around and collect finance charges on a credit card balance, well…..let’s just say you should be doing very well. My pick here is indeed a company that can do both - Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF).
That’s it for today. We’re not initiating long-term or official coverage on any of these companies. I just wanted to help all of you round out the short-term/aggressive side of your portfolios with a few long-term/stable ideas I think could bear fruit.
By the way, in the same vein as my comments above, don’t forget about the Trader’s Corner. This is our staff’s virtual sandbox, so to speak. When we see a good trading idea or short-term opportunity that doesn’t really fit into our small-cap mold, this is where you’ll find it. And, we’ve found a handful of good ones lately, despite the strong selling over the last month or so. Radiant Systems (NASDAQ: RADS) was picked on July 31st, when shares were trading at $13.90. The most recent close of $16.10 translates into a 15.8% gain….which isn’t bad for three weeks worth of work.
Keep an eye out for our next Trader’s Corner column, which should be coming out later this week.
8/17/2007
You’ve probably heard by now, but if not, the Federal Reserve cut the discount rate this (Friday) morning. This isn’t the Fed Funds rate that’s changed (or un-changed) as part of Bernanke’s regular monthly comments to congress. This is the overnight rate, at which banks borrow and lend money to each other. The annualized overnight rate was sent from 6.25 to 5.75. The goal was to spur the economy a little, and spur lending a lot.
Will this have the desired effect? You know, I’ve seen a lot as my years in this biz start to mount up. In my observation, sometimes these things actually have an effect. However, I’m also convinced it takes months to really have the impact needed, and there are plenty of other factors at work here. So, I don’t know that this will really have any immediate or tangible impact ns the current credit/lending scenario.
The thing is, IT MAY NOT MATTER, at least as far as investors are concerned! Stocks rarely actually trade at what they’re worth now. They usually trade at prices the market thinks they’ll be worth six months from now. If everyone thinks the news is good, THEN THE NEWS IS GOOD. The reality is irrelevant.
And if the market’s early action is any sign, then yes - this is good news. The market was primed for a bounce yesterday, after being well oversold for several days. This may just be the catalyst needed to jump-start bullsihness again. I know I’m going to start pulling the trigger and ease into positions I’ve been thinking about. I’ll hold some (most) of my cash for now and look at the battlefield come Monday. If things are still looking bullish, I’ll keep accumulating.
By the way, take note of yesterday’s long-tailed reversal bars for the indices. That may have been the pivot point. Those big intra-day reversals (that leave pointy bottoms) are hints of a bottom.
More later.
8/16/2007
I’ll just take care of three observations in one shot here. Though they’re certainly not the only charts worth watching right now, I think Titan Global’s (OTCBB: TTGL), Stockgroup’s (OTCBB: SWEB), and BioCurex’s (OTCBB: BOCX) charts all deserve a little extra love today.
First up, Titan Global. You all know this one’s been on a rampage for a while, but yesterday’s 20 cent pullback (on a closing basis) was a little bit un-nerving. (Even more un-nerving was the high-to-low span from $1.79 to $1.34 over the prior two days.) However, like the champ I think it is, TTGL has already found a stable footing, and is in positive territory for the day. The 20 day line seems to be the upside catalyst. I think that dip from Wednesday was plenty big enough to flush out any overbought pressures, which means the road is cleared for another bullish leg.

Has anybody else noticed BioCurex shares are perking up again? Volume has been solid as well. That’s not to say it’s looking enticing again - it appears the 50 day line is still acting like a ceiling. However, something has changed here. As we’ve been saying off and on for weeks, I think BOCX is a dark horse that should be monitored continually. The stock has the potential to fly, but I don’t think anybody else believes that. That’s why I like it so much….or will like it when I see some of those walls get knocked down.

Just one day after releasing their earnings, Stockgroup is getting hammered. SWEB shares are back under their 200 day line….a little surprising considering the quarterly results were pretty good. Though I ultimately think this company is the real deal (and will deliver as they’ve described), I don’t know if I’d feel good about buying on this dip. I equate it to trying to catch a falling knife. If you’re in, be smart - don’t get married to any stock. If you’re not in but want in, I think things might get worse before they get better. Maybe we should all use the 200 day line as the yes/no signal.
By the way, on all these charts, the timeframes for the moving averages are 20 (blue), 50 (purple), 100 (red), and 200 (green).
8/15/2007
I have to give credit where it’s due - Smart Energy Solutions Inc. (OTCBB: SMGY) does a great job at maintaining share value through a strong public presence effort. That in itself tells me a lot about the quality of the stock. Why? A lot of companies assume stock prices are always fair, even when they’re not. Smart Energy doesn’t make that assumption, and shareholders benefit because of it.
However, that’s all academic. I just wanted to point out my observation before I illustrated it with an example.
On August 20th and 21st, Smart Energy will be participating in the Noble Financial Equity Conference, which is specifically geared to provide small cap companies an audience to efficiently share their opportunity with other interested parties.
They’ll also be making a presentation at the conference. The nice part for you is, you can watch the presentation from the comfort of your own home. The presentation - with streaming video and PowerPoint presentation - will be webcast live and archived on the websites of Smart Energy (http://www.smgy.net/), and Noble Financial’s conference website at www.two-007.net. It is recommended that interested parties register at least 15 minutes prior to the start of the presentation to ensure timely access.
To learn more about the conference, just click here.
By the way, Smart Energy’s quarterly results are out. They were fairly uneventful….close to flat. That’s not to imply they weren’t important - results are always important. But, I think Smart Energy’s story is more one of where they’re going to be 3 to 6 months from now rather than where they were 3 to 6 months ago. To read the numbers for yourself, here’s the 10Q.
What else can you say besides ‘Wow!’? Stockgroup Information Systems (OTCBB: SWEB) has done it again. What’s not to like about 18 consecutive quarterly revenue increases? And this one was a big one…..a 108% improvement q-o-q.
As I mentioned in our last look at SWEB, one of the things I was curious about is the successful monetization of Stockstream Platinum. It wasn’t technically launched in Q2, but a few more brokers and banks started using the service last quarter. Also, it was the second ‘live’ quarter for their mobile product brought into the mix with January’s purchase of Telecommunication Systems’ Mobile Finance Division (not the Reuters version announced a few weeks ago….that’s something different.) Additionally, Stockgroup should have fiscally benefited from Q2’s acquisition of Semotus Solutions’ platform - a lower-cost mobile data delivery service that targets retail investors as opposed to institutional players.
In other words, Stockgroup has been a growth machine, plain and simple. What I like about the growth, though, is that it’s actually bearing fruit. Far too often I see companies expand, but into ventures they can’t really do well with. Not Stockgroup though - the acquisitions are all aligned with one purpose…..catering to the underserved retail investor. Better yet, the numbers validate the expansion.
Enough chatter - here are the results. For the three months ended on June 30th, SWEB generated $3.7 million is sales. That’s 108% better than the same quarter from last year, when they did $1.8 million in business.
The net loss was bigger too (at $1.2 million), but it should have been. Why? They took on the brunt of the R&D charges associated with the next-generation Stockhouse.com website. Also - and I suspect this was the biggest portion of the loss - they charged two quarters worth of amortization associated with the January acquisition of Mobile Finance.
Frankly, I’m not really worried about the current loss…it’s all going to pay dividends (metaphorically, and perhaps literally) later. As an investor, what I really want to know is whether or not the massive growth was all acquisition-based, or organic (internal) improvement. Of course, I have the advantage of closely following the ins and outs behind these numbers.
The Mobile Finance venture they bought in January was doing about $6 million per year, or roughly $1.5 million per quarter. The thing is, sales increased by $1.9 million. Their other key revenue driver - advertising sales - improved by 27%….and had nothing to do with the Mobile Finance acquisition. So the answer to my question about where the growth came from was ‘both’.
Bottom line: Stockgroup is still on a roll, and we believe still makes for a great investment opportunity.
But don’t take our word for it - if you want to hear it straight from the source, be sure to listen in on the conference call today.
The call, as well as a simultaneous webcast, is scheduled for today (August 15th) at 4:05 P.M. EST. If you’re a phone-type of person, dial 1-866-400-2280 a few minutes before the call. If you’d rather use the web to listen in, just go to www.stockgroup.com a few minutes beforehand.
To get the details from the SEC filing, click here. For the full press release, click here.
8/14/2007
I think most everybody was aware of this plan a few months ago, but it’s always nice to get confirmation. CEL-SCI Inc. (AMEX: CVM) has entered into a long-term lease agreement for a Multikine manufacturing facility.
This is generally good news for an obvious reason….for Phase III testing to be completed, the drug has to be made somewhere. However, there’s a less obvious - and more important - reason for CEL-SCI to make longer-term plans.
The FDA prefers a fully-approved version of a biological drug to be made in the same setting as the Phase III version. Why? Even a minor difference in something as trivial as lighting or refrigeration can affect the drug’s effectiveness.
From a bigger-picture perspective, this leaves little doubt that CEL-SCI is serious about Multikine, and fully expects to get an FDA approval. Based on our understanding, we expect it to as well.
As for the stock, today’s news probably ain’t gonna’ have much of an impact. There are no immediate benefits, and it wasn’t exactly news - this was an idea they talked about a few months ago. All the same, we consider it a minor victory. We just wish we could say the same for the stock price.
CVM shares have been in a slow slide, guided lower by resistance at the 20 day moving average. We’re not necessarily alarmed, as the overall market hasn’t helped either. It happens. The upside in all of this is how CEL-SCI’s stock tends to rebound well. We’ve seen support around 55 cents a couple of times on even longer-term charts. If past history is a guide, this dip to 61 cents may actually be flagging a great entry opportunity. You know we think highly of the company, and feel it’s only a matter of time before Multikine starts to reap rewards.
Here’s the release.
8/13/2007
To be perfectly blunt, I think now’s the time to take action. We’ve seen Smart Energy Solutions’ (OTCBB: SMGY) chart dropping pretty strong hints of a bullish move being in the works, but today’s move is the biggest yet.
Right out of the gate this morning we saw a big purchase - 70,000 shares were bought in the first minute of trading, and a 2 to 4 cent premium over Friday’s closing price was paid for every one of them.
More than that, Monday’s high of 61 cents (so far) challenged the highs we’ve seen since March (save one low-volume blip at 62 cents on May 4th). Yet, there’s no news…at least no tyet. That’s the point though….something good is probably going on, as all these higher highs and higher lows have alluded to.
Just a hair higher (at or above 62 cents), and I believe a lot of short-covering or buy-in stops are going to be triggered, and we’ll see the upside flood gates finally opened. As I mentioned a few times about SMGY already, I don’t want to have to chase it when and if that happens.
In the meantime, and regardless of the new high possibility, we’ve seen enough upward momentum to pull SMGY above its key moving average lines. In fact, the short-term lines have crossed back above the longer-term ones, creating what some traders consider official ‘buy’ signals.
Either way, I like how this is shaping up - I think I smell a rally brewing.
Like I said about ten times in the last month, Titan Global (OTCBB: TTGL) has been in a rally mode. Today, with the move to $1.59, TTGL is at new multi-year highs. The potential resistance at March’s high of $1.49 has been breached. The volume behind the move has been good. Best of all, there still seems to be lots of gas in the tank.
I hate to say I told ya’ so, but, I told ya’ so. We’re now 59% above last month’s low of 99 cents. Hope you were listening.
The one thing I was curious about was whether or not this move was entirely rooted in the company’s stock buyback plan. Titan was looking to buy back up to four million of its own shares. per the announcement made on May 9th.
My conclusion is, it’s not all from the repurchase program. The first wave of the buyback was less than half of the stock’s total volume. So, their pace has been pretty well contained. It’s the market taking the ball and running with it. A hefty 1.4 million shares have traded hands since July 23rd. That’s organically-grown interest, I believe.
Anyway, despite the recent run, don’t forget our target is still $3.00. You might get a dip to buy into, but I’m not certain about that at this point; this is a pretty strong move that has gotten a lot of attention.
8/9/2007
If you’re wondering why BioCurex’s (OTCBB: BOCX) up 14% (7 cents) on the best ‘up’ volume we’ve seen in a month, here’s why - the company issued some comments today about how their RECAF technology may be utilized to spot cancer specifically for ‘at risk’ individuals.
The basic point being made was simply how the advancement of genetic testing may also propagate the use of the BioCurex/RECAF cancer screener.
Only recently have biotechnicians developed the ability to test - at the gene level - for genetic makeups that make cancer more likely for an individual. As technology progresses, the frequency and reliability of genetic testing for high-cancer-potential scenarios is apt to rise.
The shortcoming in the genetic testing is that it doesn’t actually indicate cancer has been developed - only a higher potential that it will. BioCurex’s comments were just that as more genetic testing was done in the future, the more cancer screening that could/should be done for known at-risk individuals. Ergo, the cultivation of one biotechnology field could be a springboard for another….screening tests. It just so happens that BioCurex is heavily involved in the screenign industry.
For more on their comments, click here.
So, is the news worth a 7 cent, or 14%, improvement in the company’s value? Well, it really wasn’t news at all - just an idea. But, it makes sense. There’s no immediate or specific revenue stemming from the potential use of a cancer screening test. However, it does present an interesting opportunity that could bear fruit for BioCurex in the future. That’s worth something as an investor.
As far as short-term traders are concerned, the comment may have sparked a fire for you as well. After finding a floor at 46 cents for a couple of weeks, the stock has been working on a big move higher. Today is largely the culmination of the effort.
Personally I’d like to see all the moving averages cross above before diving in, but some speculators may see enough pep in this move to go ahead and take a calculated risk at current levels. I can’t say I disagree with that strategy either.
….in more ways than one. We’ve been watching (ok, staring at) Titan Global’s (OTCBB: TTGL) chart for several days now, amazed by just how well it’s been moving now that it’s in break-out mode. As of yesterday, my imposed resistance line at $1.40 was breached with the high of $1.43. I figured TTGL was due for a breather, but it turns out there’s still plenty of juice left. We’ve already seen a high of $1.45 today, and the heat is still turned on high.
What inspired this round of interest? Another acquisition. Titan is buying USA Detergents Inc. As the name implies, they manufacture cleaning well-known household products like Brillo pads, Oxymax, Touch of Glass, and Arm & Hammer branded lines. They’ve also got some food lines, like Betty Crocker and Snapple.
Titan’s attraction to this particular company was the common distribution channels shared with USA Detergents - many of Titan’s telecom products (pre-paid phone cards) are already in the same retail/grocery stores as USA Detergents’ lines are.
If you’re looking for a diverse holding company on a growth path, Titan sure seems to be it. I like the addition of a complementary business, as it should provide stability to their total revenue base. For more on the acquisition, here’s the press release.
I have no word yet on the details of the deal, but will try and find what I can as soon as possible. I suspect USA Detergents is a lot like the Appco acquisition in the sense that its potential is outstanding, but relatively untapped. That’s the value Titan sees - being able to improve things with minimal input but achieve maximum output. More soon.
8/8/2007
Even semi-regular readers will recall how Titan Global’s (OTCBB: TTGL) recent strength has merited more and more attention, but rightfully so - it looks to me like the chart is right on the verge of an even bigger breakout (as if the recent move from July’s low of 95 cents to the current price of $1.36 wasn’t impressive enough).
I drew two lines in the sand - the minor one was March’s peak of $1.49, but the big one I wanted to see crossed was $1.40, where TTGL bumped into a headwind a few times in recent months.
Between then and now, $1.40 was temporarily breached; Tuesday’s high was $1.43, though the close came in at $1.37.
I would have preferred it if TTGL got and stayed above $1.40, but I still think this is a good sign. Rather than harsh pullbacks like the ones we saw the last few times the $1.40 area was reached, we’re seeing the stock hang in there - within striking distance.
If you don’t have a TTGL position yet, or if it’s at least not on your radar, I’d seriously consider it. I do think it’s set to take a break for a couple of days, perhaps resting somewhere near its 10 day moving average line (at $1.31). Past that though, I can see that short breather serving as a wind-up for the next bullish leg.
I’ve mentioned this a few times already, but the company has come through in the meantime and validated my opinion. When Clearly Canadian (OTCBB: CCBEF) first hit the scene more than a decade ago, you could safely call it an alternative beverage. Water - even sparkling flavored water - was relegated to the corners of the few stores that would carry the line at all, though the small niche of consumers that wanted it seemed to be able to find it just fine.
But, over the last 15 years or so, the old ‘alternatives’ seem to have become the new ‘mainstream’. Clearly Canadian is a prime example. How so? I’ve previously mentioned the grocers and convenience stores that added at least some of Clearly’s product line, but two more big ones have come on board within the last few days.
Whole Foods Markets’ Canadian outlets will soon be exclusively marketing a new Clearly Canadian line of dried fruits and nuts, under the brand name of ‘Country Mile’. Just a few days ago we learned Wal-Mart of Canada was going to start offering Glengrove Organic’s products - one of the new lines added thanks to the acquisition of DMR Food Corporation back in February. It’s hard to label Wal-Mart an ‘alternative’, while Whole Foods Markets aren’t exactly obscure anymore either.
And the number of these new product placements is getting very lengthy.
I have to believe Clearly’s revenue figures are going to show some massive improvements over the next couple of quarters - much more so than many people may realize. If they do as well as I think they will based on all these new relationships, I’ve still got a hunch the stock could be a fast-and-furious mover.
Check out all the recent news, and our coverage of it, by clicking here.
8/7/2007
Yes, I was being sarcastic. I almost didn’t say/write anything, but I’ve yet to develop the ability to not point out the things nobody else seems able to.
Put this in the ‘irrelevant’ file. For the ninth time in a row, the Fed didn’t change interest rates. For at least the ninth time in a row, inflation was the chief concern and biggest threat. Once again I find myself asking when is it NOT the Fed’s biggest concern….whether it’s a real threat or not.
I go this straight from an AP story….
In a brief statement, the Fed acknowledged the turbulence and said the downside risks to the economy had “increased somewhat.” But the Fed continued to state that the predominant risk remained that inflation “will fail to moderate as expected.”
That’s a lot of words without a single real point being made with them. I’m no economist, but I do know where inflation has been and where it is now. Right now, it’s a heck of a lot lower than the modern era averages, and in line with more recent averages. Take a look at the chart, then keep reading.
My point is simple…if inflation is your only worry, then don’t worry - it seems to have gotten quite comfortable (maybe moderated?) with its recent sub-3 level. There’s a ceiling around 4. Both are tolerable for the market. More than that, clearly the Fed doesn’t have control of it anyway. No sense in worrying about it, even if it fails to ‘moderate as expected’. Besides, if anything, I’d say inflation has been moderated.
By the way, raging inflation has yet to actually be a problem for stocks - despite what too many people say. Look closely at the chart….it shows no correlation between the two. Yet, we still got the messy post-announcement dip today. Looks like it’s been unwound already (for now) and turned positive, but I’m sure this will create ripples for a couple of days.
Bottom line: Things happen to and in the economy, as well as the market. Sometimes they matter, and sometimes not. The things that do matter don’t always get the media’s attention. The Fed’s worries always get attention, yet inflation concerns are not new at all. I’m not worried about my stocks just because the Fed says they’re worried about inflation. It’s just rhetoric. If they were really worried, they would have done something about it.
8/6/2007
If you didn’t happen to read Monday morning’s full newsletter, then the rest of these comments might not make much sense….a problem that can be solved by clicking here (just be sure to come back when you’re done).
If you did happen to catch the a.m. edition of the newsletter, then you’ll remember how one of the three big things I was watching for as recovery evidence was the NASDAQ finding support at its 200 day moving average. Well, that’s exactly how it happened; the NASDAQ’s low of 2491.96 barely touched the 200 day line, and we spent the rest of the day working our way higher. Ta-da.
We also saw higher volume, so, ta-da again.
Now, I don’t want to imply we’re out of the woods yet. For the same reason Friday’s ugly mess wasn’t a worry, Monday’s rally shouldn’t be cause for celebration……at least not a big one anyway. Monday does, however, go a long way in my book.
Some of you speculators may already be in a bullish trade, which is fine. If instead you’re the kind of trader who waits for a little added insurance, the 10 day moving averages are now within striking distance. (Personally I’m already in, but I’m not married to my trade.) A little follow-through tomorrow may be sufficient inspiration to draw everyone else back in. I’d like to see Friday’s highs eclipsed to really clinch this move.
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Fri, May 9, 2008 @ 07:09 am
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Fri, May 9, 2008 @ 06:20 am
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