Making Sense Of This Market
I can make money if everyone else thinks stocks should go up. I can even make money if everyone thinks stocks should go down. One of the biggest challenges (maybe near impossible) I face as an investor is making money when the market doesn’t know what to think. I believe this is one of those times.
Stocks got whacked on Tuesday. Last month’s Fed meeting minutes were blamed, as the credit crisis was accented. Stocks fully rebounded on Wednesday thanks to some help from Bernanke. Plus, higher-than-planned unemployment on top of a severe decline in housing sales/prices was likely to mean the Fed was going to cut rates.
By the end of Thursday - and based on the size of the recovery move - I was banking on Tuesday’s action being a washout day, clearing a path for more of the upside momentum jump-started on Wednesday.
So what happens? International stocks followed the lead, yet as we head into today’s open, U.S. stocks are in the red. Why? Now the rate cut isn’t quite as certain, since the GDP from last quarter was the strongest it’s been in a year.
Tensions are high, and the market is fueled by every single piece of news that comes out. The thing is, today’s news doesn’t trump yesterday’s news. Yesterday’s news doesn’t trump the news from the previous day either. The market doesn’t know what to do yet….a situation I feel is best left avoided.
So at this point, I’m inclined to sit things out and let everyone else do this dance. (Actually, I’m always inclined to do that…..just more so right now.) Stocks will get their bearings soon enough. I can’t worry about this intra-day noise. I’m still bullish based on the things I saw a couple of weeks ago. Plus, I’ve seen more upward pressure than bearish pressure, despite this morning and Tuesday.
Just look at the chart - it tells the tale. My line in the sand is still the lows from Tuesday. As long as they hold up, I feel we’re ok. Stay tuned.
By the way, if you’re wondering why things are so volatile, it’s mostly a lack of volume. A little push goes a long way when most of the market is on vacation - there’s little to no counter-action. It’s yet one more reason to take it all with a grain of salt.
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Just take a look at the chart. After establishing a base around 46 cents in late July and early August, we’ve seen a persistent push….a push big enough to get the stock up to its current level of 63 cents (a 37% move, by the way). The volume behind the gain has been pretty respectable too. And, the last of the main moving average lines I watch, which is the 200 day line in this case, has now been surpassed.


What else can you say besides ‘Wow!’? Stockgroup Information Systems (


….in more ways than one. We’ve been watching (ok, staring at) Titan Global’s (



