What They Didn’t Tell You About Today’s Inflation Data
Try as I might to steer clear of posting any Op-Ed blog entries, sometimes, I just have to step in and be a voice of reason….or at least a voice of reality. So, here we go…..
It always amazes me how the media can find what they want to find in the data. Take today’s ‘inflation’ data for instance. I’m sure you’ve already seen the headlines…..”Stocks Trade Higher After Inflation Data“, which was within minutes (literally) followed by a dip into the red by all the indices. Typical. As I’ve said before, assigning a cause/effect relationship can be frustrating, if not downright detrimental to your portfolio.
What I have to wonder, however, is if most investors even realize which inflation data was being touted. It wasn’t the CPI-based data we’re used to seeing. Instead it was the somewhat-obscure PCE (personal consumption expenditures) inflation rate….which really isn’t inflation at all. The PCE data is the difference between the increase (or decrease) in personal wages and the increase (or decrease) in spending. For March, the difference was basically flat.
So, no inflation, right? Not so fast.
For the month, based on the way the calculation is made, yes - inflation appears to be nil. However, this isn’t an inflation measure. Inflation is the increase or decrease in the price of a good or service. The PCE data is only a measure of how much more or less (relatively) disposable income was spent. To use the word ‘inflation’ to describe what this data shows is being very loose with the term. The market didn’t seem to care.
Moreover, what you didn’t hear was the bigger picture data. Incomes are growing at an annualized rate of 5.7%….which is quite good, but also could allow for big spending in subsequent months (even though not in March). The annualized core PCE rate is currently at 2.1%, but the Fed has conceded their ‘comfort zone’ is a reading of less than 2.0%. The overall PCE index is up 2.4% on an annualized basis.
Point being, the overall PCE scenario actually suggests the Fed needs to tighten more than loosen. Of course, that assumes the PCE data has an impact at all. I’d be willing to debate the issue.
Take it all with a grain of salt; I think the media wrote their story first, then sought out the supporting evidence afterwards.



In the meantime, here are the important lines in the sand I see….
Take a look. We’ve seen the 50 cent mark tested as support a handful of times over the last three years. At the same time though, we’ve seen those highs get consecutively lower…creating a bearish wedge. If you fear the worst - that the bottom side of the wedge will eventually give way - I don’t think your fears are totally out of line. We’ll burn that bridge when we come to it though. In the meantime, the stock seems to have gotten a reprieve.
Our answer to the question is, take a look at today’s chart. We’re seeing new multi-week highs again (86 cents so far), and more importantly, yes, we’re seeing follow-through on the break-out of the wedge pattern. What I really like though is the volume behind today’s move. We might just see more shares transacted today than we did the day after the news came out…it’ll be close. This high-volume second thrust tells me there are a lot of major interested parties waiting in the wings.
Or to summarize, it seems like the company is going backwards.
And, between the chart and our interpretation of the news, we think the strongest stock returns may still be in front of us.
If you were skeptical of being an MIVT owner, we feel this should ease your worries quite a bit…..looks like this stent technology is for real.

