After the close, Monday, Midas Research in Germany released a 16 page report on CEL-SCI. I have not had a chance to read it in-depth as yet, but here’s the link.

This is the English Language version and I assume the German version was simultaneously released, although I haven’t seen it and since I don’t speak German anyway, no matter.

I’ll go through it and send out some comments in the am. Looks pretty in-depth, appears to have some new information as well as a fairly exhaustive discussion of the Company.

The report has a 12 month price target price of $3.71.
The shares closed around $1.22, Monday.
Your comments on the report would be of interest both to myself as well as other readers

Trade Safely.

Seems whenever we have a string of winners–and we have some huge winners in our stable–the only email I get are complaints about the few that are taking more than a few weeks. Currently featured in my mail are questions on biotech Novelos. Here’s the chart: Yes, it looks nasty. Obviously some of the shares from the recent large financing have come home to roost. The stock traded over 700k shares Thursday and dropped to $1.40. The other side to this is that the private placement financing was for a cool $15 million as I recall, which will go a long way to drive the company forward to Phase 3 and beyond. The terms may not have been all that stellar, but hey, this isn’t IBM. It’s a smallcap. Might it go lower? Sure. Could it bounce from here? Sure. Does it remain a stock with amazing long-term potential? Again, sure. In my opinion, oodles. If you like the story, own the stock and don’t fixate so much oin the price. As it approaches Phase 3 and executes other initiatives, I suspect those who own it here, lower and at higher prices will be rewarded. If you don’t like the action, sell it and move on. Here endeth the rant. Trade Safely.

The time appears right for us to download our latest tech thoughts about oil and gas direction. We’ll take a quick tech look at those two movers and give our current thoughts on recent market phenom CEL-SCI (AMEX: CVM) following.

Oily Progress

The new US Oil Fund ETF (AMEX: USO) hasn’t been around long enough for analysis–but it looks very responsive to oil’s moves so far–so we’ll use the monthly Energy Select SPDR (AMEX: XLE) chart for our discussion. Tough sledding ahead for longs, although there is still likely room on the upside. The longer the bars get, the more we approach a serious reversal. Have a look at the NASDAQ in 1999 for reference. We can see the oil price getting to $80, and that’s where we feel the volatility will kick in. $80 oil is about $64 on the XLE.

We don’t feel that the risk/reward here for strapping on a chunk of oil exposure right now as the price leaves the blue 3×3 line in the dust is very good. Might be better to wait for $80 and buy some XLE puts once that level is hit and sellers appear. Going to be a tough few months for oil as it stays front and center news wise and becomes the main topic of just about every media market discussion. We would be cautious. The elevator always stops at some point. Get off close to the $80th floor…

Give it Some Gas…

The good news is that Natural Gas stocks look very constructive for accumulation. Here’s the chart:

The weekly chart has a completed a nifty double repo. Buying NG plays on pullbacks, in our opinion, looks the right strategy in the short-term, ie–over the next few months. The AMEX Natural Gas Index (AMEX: ^XNG) is a great place to unearth strong NG plays. The best corner of the energy market in our opinion is, at the moment, found in those NG plays. The trick shot is that our strong feeling is based almost solely on the technical picture as the fundamentals change on almost a daily basis. But it’s a pretty darned good tech picture…

CEL-SCI holding well.

Bottomline: the shares look good at these levels for accumulation. Here’s the weekly chart:

Noticed that the Company is getting more mainstream press since its announcement that CEL-1000 could be an adjuvant to bird flu and also malaria vaccines. Likely part of the reason for the good performance of late.

The price is hovering around the 3/8 retracement of it recent large move. Appears the right time to get some shares as if any renewed momentum appears, it will be from this level. The shares have settled nicely as it consolidates its recent run and the weak speculators have likely been cleaned out.

As we have always said–ever since we alerted the readership to this winner in February at 52 cents, volatility is the constant companion of these shares. Volumes have continued to swell and the action is a trader’s dream. Hold a core position, trade the pops and enjoy. Activity like this doesn’t come along very often. And there’s way more to come, in our opinion.

Keep an eye on the newsletter and here on the SCBLOG for updates.

That’s it. Just a short drive-by on some relevant issues prior to the weekend.

Trade safely.

As mentioned in yesterday’s SmallCap piece, here are some comments on NWKI. From Tuesday’s release: “Network Installation Corp. announced record revenue of $5,932,064 for the twelve month period ended December 31, 2005, a significant increase vs. $1,889,739 for the same period in 2004″. For all you math challenged types, that’s more than a threefold increase year over year. As well the Company’s order backlog hit $13 million. Nice. There was also a large non-cash charge taken but it’s apparent the forward growth is in place. Here’s the Chart: NWKI is trying to set up a double repo of the 3×3 DMA, but only the first leg has been confirmed with a recent break and close above the 3×3. Entry at this points favor the risk/reward scenario, especially if that second leg of the double repo completes soon. I would be remiss by not mentioning that the double repo has been attempted on a few other ocassions and has failed to confirm. We need a close back below the 3×3 and one more close back above to have confirmation. I’ll watch for it and report unless I miss it…. All in all, appears a reasonable accumulation at these levels and on dips as the biz plan executes and the revenues grow. The recent moves by the Company seem to be gaining traction quickly and the shares looked poised for higher ground. Trade Safely…

What follows is one of our frequent articles on compelling topics that frankly interest us enough–and we believe our readers– to share our opinions. Here’s the teaser…. click the link here or the one following for the balance of the piece…

Wouldn’t it be nice if investors could get the best, most in-depth research, unencumbered by any conflicts, on any company of interest for free? In a lot of cases, they can; especially for small and micro cap companies. The fact that someone else–such as the company that is the subject of the report–chooses to engage and compensate an Independent Research company for that report isn’t a bad thing, it’s merely a fact of life–and you’d best get used to this growing trend. That said, how you view and utilize compensated research is the trick-shot…

The balance of the article can be accessed by clicking here….

You really need to pay attention to both this blog as well as signup for the SmallCap Digest. The combined package would have made you some very significant coin over the past days/weeks. BioCurex caught big fire Wednesday morning, closing at 81 cents Tuesday and hitting $1.34 almost right out of the gate, Wednesday.

We had no idea the great BOCX news was coming when we posted below, on Saturday, that technically, the shares looked ripe for a run. It just felt right at the time. Very right, apparently.

Mid-morning the shares have backed and filled a bit and are trading close to 1 million shares and wrustling around $1.20.

Here’s the chart. Check your pacemaker.

BOCX looks like it might be setting up for another run, but we’ll wait and see how the day settles. Walking into this kind of action at this point seems goofy. Enjoy the volatility, keep a core position and enjoy the trading. It will remain volatile.

We also mentioned yesterday in the SmallCap Digest sidebar that we felt that the pullback in CEL-SCI looked very interesting. The shares are $1.11 this am. Here’s the poop from yesterday:

While we think y’all should always have at least a small core position in CEL-SCI, we thought we’d update our tech thoughts. The chart tells us that the .618 retracement of the most recent run gives us as entry point at around $1.08–the shares dipped to $1.15 Tuesday; maybe already close enough. If one looks at the retracement from the 44 cent low of October 2005, that .618 number lowers to 94 cents. As we crunch the numbers, our feeling is that the profit target off of the $1.08–if it gets there–would be roughly the $2.20 area. You can appreciate, with the volatility and the propensity the Company has to deliver substantive news, these are merely guidelines to help your trading. You may want to simply pick away at the shares here with a view to filling in positions on dips. Seems to be more profitable trading the shares when bought on decent pullbacks once the action has quieted down a bit, rather than chasing it when it gaps up.

Signup to the SmallCap Digest. What are you waiting for? There’s money to be made.

Trade Safely.

From Saturday’s SmallCap Digest:

While there hasn’t been much recent news, some interesting things showed up on the chart of biotech BioCurex (PK: BOCX). When we applied an MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) filter we found that even though the shares have been trading sideways with a slight downside bias, the filter revealed a ‘bullish divergence’. Simply put, the activity is actually showing some impressive buyside strength. This indication is often a precursor to a major positive move. Probably right to accumulate the shares at these levels as, if this plays out, there is a decent rally developing. The chart is here. Have a look.

Trade Safely.

If you’ve enjoyed our coverage over the last while. why haven’t you signed up? You can do so here or at the end of this tome…

Last few days has been fun for us and for shareholders of biotech CEL-SCI. By the way, the shares seem to have a bit of renewed vigor this am after yesterday’s selloff.

We see resistance at the $1.55 level, so watching the action around–if it rises to that level soon– there will be key. You have all of our current thoughts below and on recent SmallCap Digest newsletters. Anything else, we’ll post here or there.

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All I can say is… Damn, CEL-SCI, what a ride.
Unbelievable day, yesterday as I noted below, twice. Instead of taking days or weeks, the shares exceeded our $1.64 target in hours. Here’s the chart:

Unless you own the shares at our second entry point at 66 cents, be very, very careful here. Volatility, if you get in too high or don’t trade the shares, long and wrong will hurt. Have some exposure, sure, but don’t chase. We now have a short term top at $1.70 level, the shares are now sitting on the .382 retracement of that run. Cheap stock holders may want to loosen up a bit at these levels, if you didn’t yesterday, with a view to entry around the .618 level just under $1.

With volumes like this, it’s not time to bet the farm; perhaps a few acres, but definitely no milk-money bets.

New buyers will likely be in for a longer term hold, but less than for those who bought at $1.70 yesterday.

Trade it, own a small core position and enjoy. We’ll keep y’all apprised as any events unfold.

Trade Safely.

CEL-SCI trading Tuesday exceeds 12 million shares and closes at $1.70, up 90 cents on the session.

We’ll look at the chart and see what’s up and post here. As well, tomorrow’s addition will have an update. Trading opportunities since February 10th when we alerted (at 52 cents) aside, readers saw their shares up 225 percent in less than two months. Nice.

Trade Safely.

Biotech CEL-SCI announced this am, that it was filing a patent its CEL-1000 product related to bird flu vaccine development.

From the release: “it has filed a provisional U.S. patent application covering its drug CEL-1000 for the prevention/treatment of bird flu and/or as an adjuvant to be included in a bird flu vaccine”.

As well, we noted on a sidebar in yesterday’s SmallCap Digest that the Company had announced that it felt that CEL-1000 may have a defining contributory effect on the efficacy of an eventual vaccine.

Bottom line is that the shares took off. Big-time. That makes twice readers and investors have experienced–and we alerted y’all to both– significant wins in CVM since we began coverage on February 10th. The yellow circle on the chart below shows our second entry point suggestion.

First time, the shares shot from 52 cents to $1.06. Second time from under 70 cents to the current $1.09 today. You need to look at this chart and read the comments.

This latest run is very important, since it is quite out of character for the standard trading of CVM. Usually, it will have a week or so run-up and then snooze for a while. No more. Volatility will remain, but the action is compelling.

If this continues, the shares could be on the way to the $1.24-$1.64 level in the shortish term. It ran up big as shown in this weekly chart, retraced 5/8 and has resumed its rally. Definitely a good sign of potential further upside price action in the stock.

Go somewhere else if you want guarantees, but there’s no denying that the action and the press stories today’s announcement garnered–AP released it to their wire, as did bizjournals.com–more radars screens obviously lit up as the volume blasted up to over 3 million shares by 1.30pm edt.

Enjoy, and as always…

Trade Safely.