Biocurex had an interesting day yesterday and this am. The shares perked up pre-opening to $1.75-$1.80 Wednesday, and then saw some renewed selling after the opening bell. At the moment, they are grinding around $1.60.

The shares hit $2.35 yesterday and then began a slide that saw the shares close at $1.60, Tuesday. We mentioned caution and strategic trade, so hopefully those suggestions were followed. My opinion for the volatile performance falls into a couple of points:

1. Plain old ’selling on history’. The ‘buy on mystery’ took us from 50 cents to $1.89, after all.
2. The shares were around 50 cents last November and buyers of cheaper stock undoubtedly decided to take some profits. Once a direction gets entrenched, especially on markets like the Pink Sheets, the velocity tends to get exaggerated.
3. I rec’d emails and read a certain amount of disappointment on the ‘net that the terms of the deal weren’t disclosed. This surprised me, as for the record, they rarely are and this should actually be no surprise.
4. Watching the market, I suspect that there was and is some shorting going on.

Technically speaking, the largest confluence area of resistance for the stock resides in the $1.42-$1.64 area. Likely as the trade settles out, the shares should want to find support and consolidate.

We stand by our contention that this is a watershed deal for Biocurex and that it heralds a compelling addition to a speculative portfolio. Worrying about price movements at this point is likely futile. They will continue to be fast and furious–likely both ways– as the days progress. If you like the shares and the story for the longterm, you should own them. If not, don’t. Fairly simple.

Best suggestion is to be patient. The Abbott deal is a good one for both parties and I believe serves Biocurex shareholders well. As I said, this ‘first shoe’ to drop will likely, in my opinion, open, advance and ultimately close more deals. Think about where the company was, developmentally, a few months ago versus now. The potential is being realized and I feel that there is much more to come.

That said, volatility will continue–has it really ever stopped?–and we believe long term investors will be well rewarded for their risk.

Traders? Enjoy. The share action should please you, as well. Remember not to sell all your cheap stock, unless you can’t stand the heat, and keep at least a small exposure for the long-term.

Comments welcome and we’ll bring you news and commentary both here and on the SmallCap Network.

Patience rewarded. Rather than re-hash all the news here, have a read of our SmallCap piece issued Tuesday morning on Biocurex. Nifty licensing arrangement with Abbott Labs. Stock trading up nicely on heavy volume. Be advised, the trading will be volatile, so act accordingly with stops, strategic partial sales, etc.

We brought you Micromuse a software company that specializes in monitoring and maximizing the efficiency of business systems, among other virtual rocket science. I mentioned it in the SmallCap Digest in February at $5.46. Well, nothing much has changed from then other than volatile markets and MUSE’s price, which clocked down to the low $4 range a couple of days ago. here’s the chart:

We suggested a stop at $4.75 and surprisingly, it was triggered a few days ago. Stops are important, no matter how good a situation appears. What now? Fundamentally, the shares appear sound for the reasons noted in our Trading Alert. The shares appear in a downtrend, although the price was more buoyant mid-day Thursday. looks to have support at the $4.30 level and would prefer to buy it around there with a tight stop at $4.15. If you buy it here, that level likely makes sense.

If $4.15 is broken, the next level is $3.97. I believe patience will sort this one out due to the fact that there is significant cash, no debt, a price to sales ratio of just over 2 and the business seems to be growing nicely. Cash works out to $1.57 a share. Projected earnings for 2006 is 26 cents which, at a share price of $4.50, evidences a forward price earnings of a compelling 17 times. That number can change, of course, but it appears the weakness has made the shares interesting for those who waited or those who purchased higher.

If anyone has any thoughts on MUSE send ‘em in. I suspect this is at or close to a buying opportunity, but if there’s extraneous facts I’m not aware of, let’s share…

Markets closed Friday, which means traders in NY will likely be heading to the Cape and Jersey Shore right about now.

I’m working on a couple of new names for the SmallCap Digest including a unique cable name with a geographic twist and a couple of other techs and biotechs with nifty potential, IMHO.

Markets have been skitzy this week, but our stable has reacted well with some moving higher, such as MIV Therapeutics which has breached 70 cents and a really nice move on an old friend nano tech Biophan which we’ve played a few times with decent success.

I recall an email from a reader after the initial run that he had acted on our initial Trading Alert in December 2003 article to accumulate Biophan at 35 cents.
He subsequently sold at around $1.50 a few weeks later and the proceeds funded his child’s university education. Nice. With the shares now at $2.40, if he’d held, she could likely go Ivy League…

A league of their own

It becomes apparent to me that smallcaps don’t really care which direction the market’s going, short of a meltdown, as most are news driven. The can be snappy winners or drop precipitously, usually without a tilt of the hat to the big picture. And usually when we least expect it. But unlike the more mature behemoth brethren, news will effect the share price–quickly and, in some cases, without mercy.

The price one pays for that is more vigilance to the small and micro cap names as we are dealing with vision in most cases rather than substance–for now.

That’s the fun and the challenge. No investor should ever bet the farm or put all their eggs in one basket. And never get cocky after a win. You’ll ultimately give it all back and more if you think you can string winners consistently.

And the final caveats: always use stop-losses, even if only mental ones. We’ll advise as to the level if warranted and, most importantly, always sell some especially if it’s doubled. You can be as cocky as hell if you’re playing with the House’s money as in a zero cost base. If you get greedy, chase a stock or trade irrationally, you’ll get fried. I guarantee it.

I’ll drop in again pre-easter, but if I don’t see y’all, be kind to the Bunny. The chocolate you save may be your own.

As I write Friday morning, the NASDAQ COMP is sitting at a level of 2010. According to our chart, a close at or below this level would evidence that the next support is at 1982. Not a great deal, granted, but as you can further see, a violation of that level could be a bit nasty.

For the hardcore techies out there we’ve added some other tools for your consideration. The retracement path is quite apparent as we have noted before. We see a tradable rally from the 1982 level if support holds, and there are likely some short opportunities should we see the market rally for the next couple of days.

Biotech Biocurex has been buoyant of late. The shares have posted decent volumes and appear to be creeping up although the company hasn’t made any recent statements. Our previous tech target for the shares once the $1.15 level was breached is $1.44. We continue to follow the shares–now roughly $1.27– and will bring you any news that comes our way. I would suggest a mental stop loss at the $1.00-$1.10 level, as readers who have followed this one know the meaning of volatility. Again, though given the volume spikes, watch the whipsaw. Perhaps buying on dips makes sense. New buyers should commit partial funs with a view to buying on dips should they occur.

Lots of mail–LOTS–on our CNBC piece, earlier this week. Emotions run deep apparently, but most agreed with our assessment that this engine needs a rebuild. Some took exception to my characterization of Greenspan as boring and a political hack. Partisan? Moi? No. The guy should have taken the Fifth when asked about Bush’s Social Security plan. He is in charge of monetary policy, not legislative policy. Anyway, still have some of the dozens of emails to answer, so give it a read and leave me a comment here if you have some thoughts.

As we noted in our previous blog, MIV Therapeutics makers of next generation stents, hit 64 cents and backed up a bit to now trade in the low 50 cent range. Could be some further back up on this although, given the volumes and interest, those who waited to buy might dip a toe in at these levels, again with a view to buying more on dips. Given the formative stage of this microcap, it is certainly news driven as the pending deal with SMT of India proved. Exposure in the spec end of a portfolio looks warranted.

Relatively frequent mail on ballistic vehicle maker Force Protection. I won’t kid you, this one annoys me as the contracts are there, the potential is there and the war on terror and Iraq et al likely won’t slow down anytime soon. At $1.90, the shares are at roughly 16 cents pre-reverse split, but the current price reflects a much better capital structure as all the prefs and others were converted to common cleaning up the issued and outstanding shares. The annoyance part comes as the company should have followed up the split with substantive news. Example: the shares recovered nicely on a recent announcement of a $5 million deal. I suspect future deals will stabilize the shares, but until then, they will drift up and down. One reader mentioned to me that I had suggested a stop loss at 19-21 cents pre-split. I did. If you acted on that, well done. I still believe that the shares have great potential, but we need news to buoy up the errant trading.

Superclick continues to impress. The shares are banging off $1 and the company announced a record first quarter with revenues of $1.437 million for the quarter. The PR is here for details. The interesting thing is that the revenues were gained during what is likely the worst quarter for growth–holidays, etc, and that bodes extremely well for growth for the rest of the year.
Has moved from a vision when we Alerted the readership to the company a year ago at 46 cents to a force in the sector with excellent prospects. I expect good things for the company and shareholders this year as it expands both contracts and influence.

That should do it for now. Send me your comments and questions down right or up north off of the title line.
Trade safely.

MIV Therapeutics, which we alerted the Smallcap readership to on Friday has moved from our alert price of 34 cents to the low 60 cent level, Tuesday. Obviously a lot of interest in this stock and the potential of its technology. You can read our piece here.

Further, the company issued another Press release Tuesday recounting 2004 milestones and developments as well as providing a good chronology of corporate events.

A lot of stock was traded in the mid-40 cent range on over 3 million shares, Monday. Tuesday saw the price rise again to hit 64 cents by mid-morning. Investors who wish to purchase the shares at these levels should likely consider how far the shares have run and, if a purchase is made, it should likely be part of a strategy of averaging down should the shares dip. It’s usually risky to buy a full position in a running stock, but that said, it could keep going. If you just can’t wait, buy a little now with an eye to filling in on dips. That way, if it does move higher you’re in the game. If it dips, you have cash to employ. We have noted the retracement levels on the above chart for context.

We originally suggested a stop loss at 28 cents. Given the volatility of the shares and our feeling that buying on dips makes sense for risk-oriented investors, a stop loss level becomes more individual and investors might consider establishing a full or partial stop loss that reflects your risk tolerance. Watch the whipsaw, as it appears the volatility will continue.

We profiled Xtreme Companies last week as it announced that it had acquired the marketing and distribution rights to the Challenger line of boats. By all accounts, Challenger makes a quality product and boasts fishing/cruising and luxury boats and yachts. The company followed that announcement with the news, Friday, that it had signed big dealer Lifeline Marine of Missouri with an initial order of 7 boats. We believe that this is the first of many dealer signings and the shares appeared to like both developments as the price improved nicely on decent volumes. Here’s the chart:

Further, Friday, we issued a Trading Alert for MIV Therapeutics based on both the compelling potential of the company’s cardiac stent coating technology as well as it’s pending deal with a major India-based stent manufacturer. The combination of the two companies looks to make MIVT a major player and appears to be a compelling speculation for risk-oriented investors. Read the details here. Stents have become a big business in the last few years and MIVT’s technology looks well positioned to both improve the efficacy of the devices as well as eventually grab a decent amount of that multi-billion (and growing) market. The shares trade well and we expect more news from the company as it expands it’s technology and influence in both stents and eventually other medical devices.

Got lots of interesting mail about our Martha piece a week or so ago on her company where we were fairly straightforward that the shares, at around $34 were a good short or sale candidate. The shares, now $24 still look fundamentally ugly, although the faithful seem to have put in a price floor for now. Still wouldn’t touch the shares.

Speaking of traps, Apple has been lackluster as we mentioned it as a sale when the shares were around $88 pre-split. Now they’re at $40, or $80 pre-split. Talk of competition and generally lousy markets are mainly responsible, as well as the fact that at the previous high, the shares just looked toppy to us. Likely more weakness here and in our other traps, such as Yahoo and Google, mainly because the market is working hard to hit new multi-year highs and so far have been unsuccessful–roiling these flavors of the months.

We’ll have a look at the opening tomorrow and see what the week has in store. I suspect, given the action last week with oil, the dollar et al, it won’t be dull. But then, it rarely is. That’s the fun.

Trade safely.

Internet access concern Superclick is moving up nicely on a massive 500,000-plus share day. The shares are up 6 cents, mid-day. Will add more after the close. The company announced its strategic initiatives for 2005 yesterday. Give it a read till I return…

Well, in the face of a Dow that scored a triple digit decline, Superclick closed up 9 cents at $1.01 on nearly 630,000 shares. It’s the best day ever, I’ll wager. The company also made another announcement at the close, Wednesday, regarding its lucrative Locatel relationship. We brought the company to the readership in February 2004 at 46 cents.

Here’s the chart and some tech comments:

Retracements are normally corrections of emotion or overbought/oversold type situations. The fact that SPCK has broken above the .618 retracement of the selloff which occurred last year leads one to believe that the stock has reversed its long- term trend now to the upside. A test of the 1.15 high could well be in the cards, soon.

Payment solutions concern Payment Data has been busy this week as one of its clients exercised some warrants injecting a bit of cash into the company as well as looking a significant gesture of support for PYDS’s business model. The shares have been stuck in a range of 27-30 cents, but patience will likely be rewarded as the company makes frequent deal and corporate initiative announcements.

Isonics had a rocky week as the shares dropped below $4 to settle around $3.75.We brought the company to the SmallCap readership at $1.42 in April 2004 and, while the recent weakness is disappointing, the company is forging ahead with its Neutrotest gizmo. Read the latest here. We still like the shares, but we’d like to see some solid sales before getting really jazzed. Will likely be volatile until then.

Also weakish is Force Protection as the post-reverse-split shares declined to $2.20-ish. I can’t believe that as revenues for sales kick in, this one won’t improve. Not getting any safer over there and positive product press keeps the name buoyant. The shares are news driven and I wager we’re due for some soon.

Last Friday’s action on biomed Biocurex didn’t follow through volume wise, but the shares seem to be establishing a new support level in the $1.-$1.10 range. Seems a lot of the selling has dried up and the shares are idling. We mentioned that technically the shares had a shot a $1.44 as the next resistance level. This one can be volatile, so use mental stops as good luck trying to put in a stop loss order on a Pink Sheets stock. We remain impressed with the potential and the technology and are content to accumulate a bit, then sit, and wait at these levels.

Ah, Nortel. the chart looks a bit ugly and I’m personally annoyed the shares dipped below $3. Still think there’s juice in this one, but purchasers here should hunker down here for the long term. We originally brought up the shares in late December 2002 at $1.83. The shares got to $8,50 in the interim and through that time we were sellers and buyers. For those who followed our suggestions, any stock held now should be a zero cost base. Put some cheap stock away and wait to see what happens. I see they just named a Cisco exec as Prez and COO. Now that’s interesting, given the rumors over the years of a possible Cisco purchase of all or part of Nortel.

Finally, Spectrum. the company got bombed earlier in the week as, allegedly, a large market order pounded the shares down to $2.07 from $2.58. The shares recovered to a current level of $2.45, which makes sense given the non-stop measured run-up of the shares over the past months. The company completed its acquisition of Coast Engine and Equipment, a Florida-based company which provides a diversified array of ship repair, metal fabrication, and design services to both commercial and governmental clients. Given the nifty acquisitions completed or pending–Horne Engineering the latter–SPSC is becoming a very interesting conglomeration of industrial assets. The next few months should be interesting as the bits are integrated. Still worth owning, but keep a stop loss at that $1.90-$2. level, just in case.

Appreciate the comments, keep ‘em coming or email me–link at the end of each title bar–directly.

Good weekend. Trade safely.

Tuesday morning, Spectrum shares got pounded down to a low of $2.13 from a close Monday of $2.58. While there is no news, the increased volume makes it appear that there may have been a large sell order that hit the market willy-nilly and roiled the price. This has happened before and the shares recovered quite quickly. The shares have improved to the $2.30 as I write.

I am not aware, nor have I seen any substantive reason or rumor for the correction as yet.

It’s for just this type of activity that I always play the volatility card with Spectrum. It tends to be both helped and hurt by large orders that come in periodically. Our stop loss is at the $1.90-$2. level which hasn’t been hit yet and aggressive traders might want to participate on the buy side, although the visibility as to the reason for the decline hasn’t yet and may never be delineated.

Just thought y’all’d like to know.