Seems we may be starting 2005 with a mystery. Such as, how is it that the NYSE mandarins can have a de-listing meeting on stocks like Nortel and a bunch of others and not tell anyone what they decided? Instead of leaving it up to the companies?

I don’t want to rant here, but that’s bull(fill in expletive or non) when the host exchange makes a decision or meets concerning a constituent stock held by millions of investors. The company feels its plan to begin restatements ofpast results by January 10th is solid, but the only way we’ll know is if the stock is delisted, or not or whatever. This high-handed approach by the NYSE is just another plank in their let ‘em eat cake platform. I’m sure its covered itself through its own bylaws, but it still seems stupid. And unfair to millions of investors. Anyway, here’s the NT chart:

The following is only valid if you feel NT won’t be hampered or impaired if the NYSE decides to de-list the shares or amend the listing. My OPINION is that the NYSE will leave NT alone, but there’s a risk. Please don’t bug me if you jump in and the shares get delisted. I have no idea what will happen until either NT or the NYSE deign to make us privy to the decision.

The red line is the 200 day moving average and the blue the 50 DMA. NT looks to be stabilizing and the current price looks a decent entry point. It seems to have a solid floor at $3 and I’d put a stop at or above that level for prudence. You could get whipsawed on a dip, but who said life was fair?

I think Nortel makes a good longterm spec, but with this cloud blowing through the shares, it might be wise to wait. Smallcap readers have been on this one since 2002 when the shares were $1.50-ish. We’ve sold some, bought some and have done well especially when the Wall Street intelligentsia eschewed the company and the shares.

Consider yourself warned.

KOOL heats up

Blood product company Thermogenesis hasn’t been a barn-burner, but since we rolled it out at $5.80 a while ago, the shares have perked up to $6.50, mainly on the story of increased sales of its BioArchive System. Company has $15 million in cash, no debt and is in California, home of the front line of stem cell research which will need KOOL’s products.

The chart looks good with the following caveat; volatility is increasing as are intra-day price moves. This type of action can foreshadow a selloff. Probably smart not to chase it. Small bites here and buy on dips if you can stand the heat. Needs to break above the $7 level hit in Jan04 prior to a new uptrend.

FYI: Red line is the 200 DMA, blue is the 50DMA and the green is the current trendline.

Good company good prospects. 2005 should be good for KOOL. And for the rest of us I hope….

Couple of housekeeping notes: Will try to establish some sort of loose schedule for blog pieces. However, that said, the very nature of the medium is to be timely. I ain’t gonna wait ’til tomorrow to tell you timely stuff today. So bookmark, subscribe through our RSS feed and stay tuned.

Make the SCBlog the one resolution you can actually keep.

On a personal note, I’m entering a milestone year in 05 age-wise. I guess I have to start paying attention to those supremely annoying drug ads. You know the ones; the side effects are far worse than the benefits? Unbelievable.

Thanks for the visits, support and comments. Very soon in 2005, we believe that the SCBLOG will be a must stop for investors. For some it already is. Get on board and stay tuned. 2005 will be anything but dull.

CYA soon.

Should you decide to accept it, is to find out what the hell’s going on with Bottomline Technologies? The shares rocketed from $15 to $17.35 on Monday and then settled back to $15, where it sits Tuesday, am. The whole process was sooo fast no one could participate–well hardly anyone. Here’s the chart:

I, frankly, have no info on this. We could chalk it up to low volume, a sort of holiday, whatever. Or that someone thinks they know something. I stick to the earlier suggestion below. If you came in with us at $10.85, sell a bit to lower your cost base. Or sell however much you want to satisfy your risk tolerance. Unlike a lot of peers out there, I’m all about making decent returns with calculated risks–as calculated as you can get in the smallcap market.

If anyone has some thoughts, send em in via the comments section. Until then, this blog will self destruct in several years….

What else is going on? This is always a funny week. Moves get exaggerated and all the talking heads predict what will happen next year. Both are a waste of time. the markets will do what they want. They don’t know it’s a New Year. It’s just another day in the neighborhood.

I’m working on another new name which is shaping up nicely. Lots of cash, no debt and very geeky. It will actually take me a while to figure out if the geekiness is appealing, but on first blush it looks interesting.

Our other stocks profiled here and on SmallCap Digest are doing well, although have been mostly idling through this period. That’s ok. For stocks like Bottomline-peer, micro cap Payment Data Systems, giant EMS firm Flextronics biotech product concern Thermogenesis and some others, prospects appear interesting. Oh yes, ballistic vehicle maker Force Protection seems to have established a new trading range in the 28 to 32 cent range. After some work here and hopefully new orders as the need for armored vehicles becomes paramount the shares should do well.

Pretty happy with the stable as it sits, we’ll add and subtract names as the weeks and months progress, both here and on the SmallCap Digest. Stay tuned to both. I’ll be back soon. And yes, your comments are still encouraged, solicited, whatever.

Thought I would post my sleepy friend who wishes all the best of the season. If he was fully awake, he’d tell you several things:

Take a moment for the brave troops. They, and their equally brave families deserve nothing less.

Drop off some treats and staples at a food bank.

Call an organization like the Salvation Army and give them some cash (credit card will do just as well).

Make a point of brightening the day of someone you really don’t like.

Be good to each other. As a matter of fact be good to everyone.

Pat your dog or cat.

See you all next week.

Bob the editor.

Ever wonder if doing the Hokey Pokey really is what it’s all about?
I really do have to get out more.
Also, if a man stands alone in the forest and speaks, is he still wrong? My wife liked that one.

Anyway, I was pleased to see that one of our faves Bottomline has moved up nicely. A while ago I brought this payment integration service stock to you at about $10.85. Now? $14.50. Sell some. Not a lot, maybe 20 percent to lower your cost base. Only an idiot would sit on an almost 50 percent gain in this market. But then I said to sell Martha Stewart too early. Anyway, here’s the chart:

This market is quite goofy, I must say. The NASDAQ finished 2003 at 2003–spooky– and looks to have had a fairly anaemic year as it sits at 2140, Tuesday am. There have been decent moves though, such as Bottomline and some others, but they all pretty much happened in the last couple of weeks. I would be strategic with this one as Greed and Conviction will supply the horsepower as the year winds out. $15 is the next resistance and old high.

Faite vos jeux…

Speaking of decent, did you see ballistic vehicle maker Force Protection? As a recipient of all the armored vehicle mo-mo this one moved from the low 20 cent range to the mid-30 cent range. And, on crazy volumes. Even Tuesday, as it settles back to 25 cents, the volume is poised to exceed 10 million shares. On December 13th, the company was written up on the WSJ Online edition. Seems the genie is out of the bottle and while it couldn’t maintain our break of the 33 cent resistance level, which we mentioned in our recent SmallCap Digest piece, the company is now out there on a pant-load of radar screens. Here’s a chart to warm your heart:

Good on you if you sold some cheap stock in the mid-30’s, if not, I doubt this one’s done yet and you might want to consider replacing shares sold. Might go lower as Xmas approaches, but as I always say: be strategic. Greed is only good in hindsight when the money’s in your hand. Until then, it’s all just so much paper. Might want to visit the website, There’s a video on the right side and lots of good info.

Finally, the last piece down yonder was on a unique tech company, Isonics. I mentioned, then, that should the shares breach $5.62 (price was around $5.25 then) the next resistance was $6.50. Danged if it didn’t hit $6.34 so far Tuesday, then backed off to $6. Since we have been on this since $1.42, sell a bit of any stock you have below say $2.50 or whatever number jibes with your risk tolerance. there’s likely more to this one, but $6.50 seems a tough ceiling for now. Be there but again–be strategic. Once these babies sell off, it can get ugly fast.

After all, beauty is skin deep. Ugly goes right to the bone.
I’m here all week. Try the veal….

See y’all pre-Christmas. Merry Christmas, btw and Happy Holidays to those who celebrate different occasions. This Merry Christmas brouhaha doesn’t reflect well on the spirit of the occasion. It’s just political correctness gone stupid, IMLTHO…
Don’t get me started.

Bit of a meltdown Friday night. I’ve restored the most recent article, but some comments were lost. If you still have them out there and don’t find them here–please repost.

On April 26th last, we issued a Trading Alert for semiconductor, nanotech, and Homeland Security concern Isonics. Trading at $1.42 then, by October we had issued a Profit Alert to sell a portion of positions as the shares rocketed to the $3 level. The shares continued on massive daily volumes to $6.50 and as the news quieted, pulled back and idled. here’s the chart:

On Thursday, the shares took off again and strapped on $1 or so to peak early at $5.50. It has backed off slightly as the morning progresses and there is resistance at $5.62. A breach of that point would evidence, technically speaking, a run back to the old high of $6.50.

Isonics has fingers in some very compelling pies: it produces materials to allow semiconductor chips to run as hot as a pistol, cool life science products and its current focus, the NeutroTest handheld bomb detection device. The focus for the company is to get a good share of the large and growing Homeland Security and Transportation Safety budgets for improved technologies.

As we noted in that April piece, Isonics intends to market the NeutroTest device in the first quarter of 2005. While the company makes decent revenue-$5.3 million for the first six months of fiscal 2005 versus $4.5 million for the same period 2004, there is little doubt that it is gaining traction revenue-wise especially if, as, and when future Neutrotest sales bite. Through R&D, $6 in cash and strategic acquisitions, the company seems well positioned to progress nicely through 2005.

Isonics is definately a traders’ stock. Just look at the chart. Long-term, the potential, especially given the targeted sectors and the compelling product mix, bode well for good growth.

Would one buy it here? Maybe a little if the vision is shared and the time frame is long. Frankly, if I had cheap stock I’d be tempted to let a bit go and wait to ill in on dips, should they occur.

Good trader, goods news flow, plays in high-profile sectors. Good potential, but remember, it’s still a smallcap. All the usual caveats regarding the genre apply. Never bet the farm and trade strategically.

I never get tired of saying: If it doubles, sell up to at least half to lower your cost base. Always way more fun to trade with profit or no risk funds. Why? Because, gentle reader, as with virtually all smallcaps, there’ll most likely be an opportunity to replace sold stock cheaper.

The best way to describe this item is to quote my son who is studying in Japan and doubles as my gaming analyst:

“For those of you who don’t know there have been two ‘next generation’ handheld gaming systems released recently. As Japan is the motherland of everything technologically cool and new, this is where these two items were first released. Nintendo DS, a dual monitored, touch-screen, souped up version of the gameboy. The Nintendo DS offers wireless internet connection capability allowing you to play agains other people who possess the same device. I’ll admit, some of the games for the DS look cool, but I find Sony’s PSP a little more appealing… The PSP boasts wireless internet capability for multi-player games as well. In addition to that it has the ability to connect to other systems in a nearby vicinity for multiplayer games”.

And it won’t be available in North America until mid-2005. Here’s a review of the gadgety gamer, movie player, music player and eventually probably a toaster oven.

I gave up gaming when they went to more than one level. As a matter of fact, even after they became more sophisticated, I thought they only had one level.

Is this the holy grail for Sony? No doubt it will be popular. I suspect it will retail for around $250 and at that price the margins are likely quite high and besides, the graphics are better than most TV’s and wireless features that, while 802.11b instead of ‘g’ will find a large audience.

These systems will likely do to the desktop gaming boxes what the laptop has done to desktop computers. Hundreds of folks lined up for 18 hours in Tokyo in freezing temperatures for a chance at the gizmo. Get ready for next year, parents.

From a technical perspective, there is pretty big resistance coming in at 38.50. If the price can break above that there appears to be a new uptrend ahead. Strong support is noted at 32.50 evidencing a decent trading range between the support and resistance points.

It’s time to take a moment to speak of volatility and SmallCaps. Case in point: Spectrum Sciences, The shares have recently roiled around the $1.20-$1.50 level. There always seems to be a great hue and cry–dare I say even gnashing of teeth when the shares head south toward the lower end of that range for no apparent reason. Merde happens.

The company announced today, without terms, that they had signed an LOI (Letter of Intent) to purchase Florida-based Coastal Engine and Equipment Company, Inc.– bring to SPSC a diversified array of ship repair, metal fabrication, and design services to both commercial and governmental clients. The deal comes with a nifty 15,000 square foot facility. The news perked up the shares, but not enough to break out of the recent range–yet. The company seems to be doing what it does–expanding, going after contracts and exploiting the Homeland Security sector which has become popular of late.

What will the share price do tomorrow, next week, next month? I have no idea. I do know, that if the market stays either benign or buoyant, the corporate deals and expansion continue, the share price will eventually take care of itself.

All SmallCaps have rough patches, due to short selling attacks, investor boredom, random selling as well as spikes both up and down. One has to like the story and have the stomach to weather the storms. Gnashing of teeth will simply give you cavities.

Heat, kitchen, that sort of thing.

BTW, we’re working on a new name for the SmallCap Digest which we hope to publish this week. Signed up yet? Wouldn’t want to miss it.

Also, I am lacking a steady stream of comments. Get on that right away, OK? Thanks, y’all.

Been out of the mainstream for a few days as I mentioned. Vegas. Even so there have been lots of visits to the blog. We’ll keep up the normal rate –which is whenever I think a piece is warranted–with a bit of a break around the looming holidays. Since this was an experiment for the last couple of months, the bugs and my schedule will all be worked out to hit the ground running in January.

As we mentioned last time, Eternal Tech has completed the purchase of E-Sea Biomedical for 14 million shares of ETLT stock. Bit dilutive, but the shares are up to 55 cents anyway on higher than normal volume. Read the last entry for details.

Appears that ballistic vehicle maker Force Protection is a recipient of the latest dust up regarding armoured vehicles. We been on this one for a while now and nice to see them getting the recognition as the shares popped from the mid-teens to the low 20-cent range. Volumes evidence that even though bigger companies are getting the lion’s share of the press, FRCP is in the hunt for more business. Here’s what the company had to say. Still looks like a great spec to us and have noted it is seeking approval for a reverse split at the December 30th AGM.

Looking at a couple of new names later this week on SmallCap Digest. Have you signed up yet? We move back and forth between the blog and newsletter, so you need to access both to keep up.

Bottomline a smallcap payment solutions provider has hit out resistance point at $13. It became an Oracle Certified Partner and investors liked the news. Seems to want to go higher, but I suspect it will consolidate around here for a while. resistance may be futile, but hopefully will be breached, soon.

For those with a more speculative bent, as we’ve mentioned, micro-cap Payment Data may suit those who like cheaper, albeit a bit riskier exposure. Payment solutions may seem boring, but there appears to be money to be made in the medium to longterm.

And finally, Martha Stewart. We rode this one from the $9-$10 area until she announced she wanted going to jail and the shares popped to just under $20. Thought I was pretty clever on that one. Today the shares are $26.50, and I have no idea why. When 100 percent gain isn’t good enough, we need to assess priorities. I believe it to be overpriced here, but as far as any future prognostications are concerned on MSO, you’re on your own.

Anyway, I’m back in the saddle, there are some great comments trickling in, which I’ll attend to presently. Always need more comments. Otherwise I’m hollering into the wind–or so it seems.

Oh yes.., you’d like my Vegas details. You know the drill: what plays in Vegas…

Something for everyone here, as well as some exponential growth potential. Eternal Technologies is a unique biotech/bioscience company with gobs of cash, no debt and initial growth that’s frankly amazing. The company is based in China and has the blessing and support of the Chinese Government. And the idea came from a SmallCap Digest reader. That should get your attention. Read on…

At 50 cents, the shares are idling within a trading range of between 35 and 60 cents. We would look for some resistance at 70 cents should the shares decisively breach 60 cents. Trading volumes fluctuate fairly wildly with a three-month daily average of around 100,000 shares.

Don’t re-invent the wheel

Rather than convert the boilerplate into my usual deft prose, just read the following. Comments and salient points follow.

“Eternal is a major agricultural genetics and biopharmaceutical R&D firm operating in China with the support of the Chinese Government. Eternal’s animal breeding division has a strong asset base, cash position and net income. Eternal has become one of China’s leading institutions for biopharmaceutical and biotech research, pure breed cultivation and breed stock production. The Company has secured a key market niche by commercializing gene engineering technologies and providing superior breeding stock, allowing China’s citizens the ability to improve their living standards. With the world’s largest population, a double-digit national growth rate and entry into the WTO, Eternal Technologies has a playing field set for tremendous opportunity. As a prominent player in the agricultural genetics industry, cash in the bank and an untapped market, Eternal has the potential to become a major player in China’s national growth”.

The company is in the process of acquiring a Chinese company (E-Sea Biomedical) with state-of-the-art, painless, breast cancer detection technology. The technology has a 96-percent sensitivity and can produce results in less than four minutes. At $40,000 per machine, the cost is extremely competitive and could well represent a significant worldwide market for Eternal. E-Sea currently has a backlog of around 100 machines. The math is impressive… Interest for the machines has also come in from Thailand and Vietnam.

Way cool yes, but Eternal Tech is still a smallcap and should only be considered by risk-oriented investors–although the stats and potential are pretty nifty.

Get a load of these apples.

In the first nine months (Sept 30) of fiscal 2004, revenues were $15.2 million. First nine months of 2003 revenues were a paltry $120,000. Earnings for those respective periods were 13 cents versus a loss of 3 cents.

Eternal has $16 million in cash and no debt. There appear to be roughly 29 million shares outstanding. That seems to mean that at 50 cents, the shares appear to be trading for their cash value.

Would that it were that easy…

Now this is extremely important: the company’s whack’o cash can only be spent in China. If they have to raise money to expand outside China—which they have plans to do–, they’ll have to issue and sell more stock, which could be somewhat dilutive, so Eternal is best viewed at this point as primarily a pure China play.

That said, the stats are still impressive, China-centric or not.

Not done yet.

So there you have it. Pure China bioscience play with genetic animal engineering that could well lead to the development of human pharmaceuticals. As well, the company is buying farms in the US to produce more cattle for the Chinese market. There is currently a shortage of around 10 million dairy cattle in China. China’s economy is growing at warp speed, posting a 9 percent increase in the third quarter.

Eternal is a unique situation. There are political considerations, possibly some trade issues and the whole question of personal opinion regarding genetic engineering. However, the stats are impressive and for those who want some decent smallcap exposure in China is what is arguably an explosive market, a few shares in the spec end of a portfolio might be appropriate for fun and profit.

Have a look, read the releases and decide if Eternal Technologies suits your risk tolerance. It’s certainly a different type of Bioscience Company within a fairly specific, albeit explosive, marketplace.

Thanks to SmallCap reader Achal for the tip…

Do you know what the first and tenth most looked up words are on Dictionary.com? Number one is ‘Blog’ and number 10 is, sit down for this one, ‘defenestration’. Yeah, I was surprised. The key is the ‘fenestration’ part which, for all you french scholars and cajuns is derived from the word for window. It can mean the act of throwing someone out of a window–nice– or removing a certain operating system from a PC in favor of, say, Linux. Impress your friends. No charge.

OK, busy week for your humble scribe as later in the week I’ll be off to Las Vegas to fund my daughter’s college. I’ll report back when and if I return. Bob in Vegas. Be very afraid.

I see Flextronics has perked up of late since we issued a Trading Alert a few weeks ago at $13.55. Now $14.50, analysts and pundits are chiming in behind us with plaudits. Best of a growing lot scenario continues for this EMS firm as the market rallies.

Informatica, a fav here since $7.48 continues to bring in substantive news and has breached our resistance at $8 to make some traffic at $8.40, up $1 in a couple of weeks. It released snappy results on something called a 64 bit data integration platform which was obviously received well by investors and the four people who can actually explain what that is. Looks like more room on the upside for this one.

Blood therapy/product company Thermogenesis continues to move on an improved Biotech market and product news. First seen here at $5.80, the shares have moved up to $6.24 on decent volumes. Would like to see a break above $6.50 which appears likely. Can be volatile until it breaks out of the $5.50-$6.50 range. Stop loss at $5.25 would be smart.

Payment solutions smallcap Bottomline also moving higher with the sector, teasing me with several runs close to $12. Noted here at $11, I’d like to see a strong rally through $12 and even $13 for a potential run back to $15.

In the same sector, little ‘un Payment Data unleashed a volume spike, Friday, trading over a million shares and clamping on a few pennies to 34 cents from our recent call at 28 cents. New contract announced obviously helped this one blip onto more radar screens. Resistance at 33 cents appears to be broken, but a few more days of base building will confirm. Speculative, but appears to be delivering during its formative stage.

We’ll look at a few more later in the week. Til then, I’ll wax for a moment.

Smallcaps are risky. Sometimes extremely so. Only invest with money that is extra to your needs and for heaven’s sake, use the info here as a beginning to your due diligence, not gospel. I merely illuminate, ruminate and opinionate. As in life, there are no guarantees. Ever.

And, the two cardinal rules are: If it doubles, sell half, and unless you like to invest commando, always use a stop loss. Mental ones are good if you can watch all the time. Real ones lodged with your trader of choice is better.

Will try to check in prior to Lost Wages pilgrimage.

Looking for a QQQ quote? Fool me once: it’s now the QQQQ and resides on the NASDAQ after years on the AMEX. Further, it crossed 40 bucks today. On March 12th, 2003 we called it as a buy at around $24 when nobody wanted anything to do with the market–along with a bunch of other stocks including Apple, Intel and some others. Contrarians do rule, actually.

Through ugly economics, wars, nasty elections and Michael Moore, the now QQQQ ETF quietly improved 66 percent. Here’s the chart:
While we look for a pullback short term, there is a good chance that the QQQQ’s will test the old high of late 01, early 02 of between $45 and $50-odd.

The QQQQ’s have done slightly better than INTEL since March 03 when it was $15. Now, just before the mid-quarter update, it’s trading like a wild thing at the $24 level.

And the update arrives as I type. Looks nifty.
Intel’s revenue range is well above expectations at between $9.3 and $9.6 billion for the Q4. Previously it was touted between $8.6 and $9.2 billion. The margins are a bit lower, but after hours the stock is up almost $1.50 to $24 and change. The poop is here and it looks positive for INTC, the QQQQ’s and the techs. We’ll see tomorrow.

For the record, we profiled INTC as a buy in mid-August along with the Semiconductors Holdrs Trust as analysts downgraded the stock and the sector. Drop by for a read. Both are up about 10 percent since then.

Just a shorty today. But your comments are always welcome.

Late Edition: Looks like that Microsoft special divvy will go to tech stocks after all. Thought so…

Fiftieth anniversary of Godzilla destroying Japan; over and over again. Wonder if Matthew Broderick showed up? He starred in the American version which bombed a few years ago. That’s saying something as they’re all terrible. What’s made in Japan plays in Japan, apparently.

I digress–but then I’m allowed: it’s my blog.

Markets are skookum, Wednesday, as Bush wows the Canucks during his drive-by visit. Oil appears to be cracking-down $3 and change this am adding strength to the bull case.
And Wal Mart is going to cut prices to shore up its slowed holiday sales. Stock chart shows a trading channel of between $50-$60 over the last year. Seems to bounce nicely when it gets near $50–like now.

Might be worth a few shares in the longterm section of a portfolio. Five year high is $70 by the way…

And Mister Softee is letting go of $32 billion to the faithful tomorrow which could put some decent pins under the stock and the market. The shares are idling around $27 currently and I believe a run back to $30 is likely, soon. Intel is hosting its mid-quarter update Thursday and that’s always good for much chatter and punditry (sp?). Things look good all around and even our pal the VIX is cooperating as, at 12.9 it is at a nine year low. Advantage bulls, it seems, at least for now. I really like the VIX as both a sentiment indicator and a market timer. If it continues down, some cash should be raised, as it can snap like a wet towel in a locker room.

SmallCap Bottom Line continues it’s winning ways as it cruises toward $13–our first resistance level. Big brother MoneyGram was touted today by James Tringas who runs the Evergreen Special Values Fund. His reasons are under coverage by Wall Street, $5 of cash per share and a low multiple against a projected earnings number of $2 a share over the next couple of years.

I mention this because MoneyGram appears to be a much larger version of one of our picks, microcap Payment Data Systems. Like MoneyGram, Payment Data provides services to the ‘unbanked market’–those folks whom, for whatever reason don’t have a traditional banking relationship. And there are roughly 35 million households which fall into that sector. That’s serious potential.

There’s plenty of room for everyone and as I like the sector, Payment Data at 30 cents looks a decent spec. Just cause something appears boring, doesn’t mean good money can’t be made. And if you like the sector, you have your choice of different ends of the spectrum: micro Payment Data, smallcap Bottomline or mid-cap MoneyGram. Full service information is my life.

BTW, where the heck are the comments? I have a counter so I know there’s good traffic to this site. And it’s growing nicely, thank-you very much. You must have something on your mind? It’s time to share.