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Small Cap Network Blog

10/28/2009

Breadth, Depth Turn Bearish for SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ)

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 9:35 am

If you’re a fan of trading the SPDR S&P 500 Fund (NYSE:SPY), or any index vehicle for that matter, you may want to put your bearish hat on. It’s no secret that the market’s been sinking for the last few days - we’ve seen plenty of ebb and flow since March. What traders may not realize yet, however, is that index funds like the SPY or the PowerShares QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQQ) just fell under some crucial support lines today. It could get uglier before things get better.

Here’s the most critical part of our bearish forecast for QQQQ or SPY though - it wasn’t exactly the charts of the exchange-traded funds that are leading us to a near-term bearish view. It was the NYSE’s and NASDZAQ’s breadth and depth that prompted the outlook.

It was only last week we pointed out that, though the market had been rising, the number of stocks participating in the rally (the ‘breadth’) was actually sinking. Moreover, the volume behind the gains (the ‘depth’) was also shrinking. Stocks were still pointed mostly higher, but underlying support for the rally was crumbling fast.

That’s how we knew SPDR S&P 500 Fund and the PowerShares QQQ Trust were essentially on borrowed time; today the price is being paid.

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As for how we interpret breadth and depth data, we explained that in detail with last Friday’s newsletter, though we explained in tremendous detail a long, long time ago. (If you’re looking for a powerful market-timing tool to add to your arsenal though, studying our technique would be time well spent.)

At any rate, a quick comparison of today’s NYSE breadth and depth chart to last Friday’s breadth and depth chart (same chart, just updated data) plotted along with the S&P 500 illustrates a bigger-picture shift to bearishness that we’ve not seen in months. All the breakdown signals are marked in yellow. Be sure to compare the two charts - you’ll clearly see the breadth and depth trends have remained bearish long enough to turn the tide and actually generate bearish crossovers on both fronts. [Note we use the NASDAQ breadth and depth data for the QQQQ’s. though we didn’t show it here.]

And just so you know, both the QQQQ and the SPY broke under the equivalent support lines that we marked for the S&P 500.

To answer the next question, yes, we know the technique gave us some errant signals in July, but the market didn’t break under a support line then. Now we’re getting a breakdown of support at the same time the breadth and depth tide has turned.

There are several ways to play this…. put options, shorting the ETFS, and others. The easiest though - if you agree that things just turned bearish - would be to tap one of the leveraged inverse index funds. Think about the ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 ETF (SDS), or the Rydex Inverse 2x S&P 500 ETF (RSW). No margin or option-approved accounts are needed for either.
If you’d like to know of any changes in our opinion of QQQQ or SPY (or if we officially recommend them as trades), be sure to sign up for our free newsletter today. It’s delivered weekly.

10/16/2009

What’s Next for Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (SPPI)?

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 11:31 am

Though we strictly adhere to a policy of not offering individual advice (for regulatory as well as feasibility reasons), in cases where sharing our thoughts with everyone is educational and broad in its scope, we don’t mind answering some questions with our opinion…. like the one we got today regarding Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (SPPI). Our reader writes….

I OWN SPPI STOCKS AND FIND IT PIERCED THROUGH YOUR BOTTOM OF 4.78! ON CHARTS. WHERE NEXT? — ‘IYEEKS ‘ AS YOU SAID!

Thanks for the note. A little background work may be in order for everyone to fully appreciate our answer. The discussion the note references was actually posted last Friday after SPPI broke under one key Fibonacci retracement line, and tumbled (gapped, actually) all the way to the next one at $4.80. If the $4.80 one broke as well, then Yikes! indeed.

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Well, yikes. As you can see from the chart below, the floor at $4.80 broke in the meantime, and Spectrum Pharmaceuticals shares are now trading at $4.67.

As far as the ‘where next?’ is concerned, we don’t even really have a strong idea yet. The fact that SPPI can’t get back above the Fibonacci line at $4.80 isn’t a good sign… that’s for sure, but it’s still working on getting back over the hump.

From my perspective, it’s too soon to give up on Spectrum simply because (1) you’ve already ridden it this low, and (2) it’s trying to recover. If SPPI rolls over again though, and makes a low under yesterday’s low of $4.35, that’s likely to be a strong sign that things are poised to get much worse before they get better. In the meantime, I’d say the chart’s in limbo.

The bigger lesson that Spectrum Pharmaceuticals has taught us here is simply to use and be aware of Fibonacci retracement lines. They’re not perfect, but when used in conjunction with other tools they can really improve your trading odds.

If you’re not registered for our free newsletter, this is what you missed today. Don’t miss out on any more money-making opportunities… subscribe today

9/29/2009

Where Are All the Penny Stock Trades?

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 2:37 pm

We’ve mentioned this before, but we can’t say it enough… if you’ve got a question or suggestion for this site, please send it in. We read them all, and respond to every legitimate one. We got this one recently specifically about penny stocks, and why we don’t look at more of them.

The reader writes…

Dear Editor, Just a quick question about the Penny Stock Analysis section on your site. I wondered why most of the stocks are above one dollar rather than penny and/or sub-penny levels as the section implies? I am always looks for start up companies with good products or services that I can invest in with the potential make a nice profit. It would be nice to get your take on up-coming companies who have a chance to go big rather than stable companies who are already turning a profit as in your Small Cap Stock Analysis, which already does this. Just a thought and thanks for your valuable info!

Thanks for the note and great question.

The short answer is, given the choice of making some high-odds money versus swinging for the fences on a few penny stocks that will probably not pay off, we’ll take the former. And, those have been our only two viable choices of late.

The long answer is a little more complex, but still worth discussing.

We’ve had this discussion internally recently….. the choice between focusing on stocks priced under $1.00 (or comparable small caps) versus the choice of trying to just buy low and sell high no matter what the share price. IN THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT, we’ve been more of the mindset that making some money is more important than scouring through an ocean of true penny stocks just to find a very rare gem. (Not that they’re all ever collectively healthy, but in a normal environment, at least some penny stocks have a shot at producing returns)

Oh, don’t hear us wrong… most penny stocks are crap most of the time. Right now though, almost all of them are crap all the time. Since we face the exact same headaches you do (like manipulation, bad information, inconsistent volume, etc.) when it comes to finding good sub-$1.00 stocks, we’re not going to try and squeeze blood out of  a turnip.

Or, think of it like this….. we’d rather have a 70% shot at a 50% gain instead of a 15% shot at a 300% gain.

We’ll probably stick with the favorable risk/reward scenarios of higher-priced stocks for a while longer, but as the economy continues to strengthen, we expect to find more and more penny stocks worth a look.

Something else to bring up (though the reader didn’t specifically mention it)…. it should be something of a given that we’re not likely to issue a short-term, ’swing’, or day trade alert for any penny stock. We just have too big of a list to mail to, and we have to take a little too long to craft a message to do so.

We frequently talk about penny stock trade ’set ups’ in the community articles though, so you can find those kinds of ideas there. As for what we’ll be focusing on on the newsletter, it will probably be more of the longer-term (days, if not weeks) penny stock trade picks.

Bottom line? Be patient - they’re coming.

If you’re not signed up for the free Small Cap Network newsletter, then you’re not going to hear about any of the penny stock picks discussed above. Sign up today.

9/23/2009

A Map of Global Debt - Which Country Owes the Most?

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 10:49 am

I stumbled across an interesting tool The Economist rigged up that shows - nation by nation - who proudly own the most debt. As it stands right now, the world owes a total of $35 trillion. Who owes the most and the least? Check out the map to see.

http://buttonwood.economist.com/content/gdc

I don’t know of any particular use this will have to us as investors, since the world is so co-dependent, one country’s massive debt will affect all markets. Still, it’s worth knowing who’s not getting crushed by a mountain of bills.

Have fun.

8/18/2009

Take Profits on American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. (AXL)

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 1:03 pm

Veteran readers of the Small Cap Network website and newsletter will probably already have done so, but newcomers may need to hear it explicitly…. take profits on American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. (AXL) if you were in a trade because of our July 28th article “Five Great Stocks Under Five Dollars“. The stock has jumped more than 100% today thanks to an announcement that General Motors (GM) would rework an agreement with American Axle & Manufacturing that is almost the equivalent to winning the lottery.

At the time we suggested them, AXL shares were trading at $1.28 each. As of today, American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings is trading at $5.71 per share, translating into a gain of 346% for those who acted on the idea when it was published.

Here’s the core of the new deal….

  • GM has pledged $110 million payment (to help recover AXL’s costs associated with the automaker’s bankruptcy process)
  • GM will offer a loan facility of up to $100 million (through September 2013)
  • American Axle will receive its second waiver extension
  • GM will receive warrants for up to 20% of Axle’s common stock

In other words, American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. gets to live….. something the stock was hinting at well before today.

But isn’t all of this great news, and a reason to keep holding AXL shares? Yes and no. It’s great news, but a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

AXL may well keep on rising, but a 100% gain is a tough act to follow. The rally was based more on hype and euphoria than on numbers, and it could be a while before AXL shares are actually worth $5.71…. even if General Motors starts to crank out and sell cars like they did yesteryear (metaphorically speaking). If American Axle continues to rise, or dips sharply, you can always buy it back then. The sell recommendation is a simple matter of risk and reward; there’s not a lot of reward left to garner, but there is a lot of risk.

Or, here’s the ultimate hedge - sell half your AXL now, and keep half.

If you missed the American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. (AXL) trading idea, or any of our others, do something about it today - sign up for the free newsletter. We’ll send out similar trading ideas and market commentary 2 to 3 times per week. 

7/31/2009

Another Confusing Syndication Inc (SYNJ) Press Release

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 6:44 am

What is it with Syndication Inc. (SYNJ.PK) and its press releases that use a lot of words but never really say anything? The latest one came yesterday. From what I could glean, the company has initiated what they’re calling Phase I of their Bio-diesel production partnership with Sentinel Renewable Energies S.C. Inc. What’s less clear is why the company chose to declarify the message with quotes from some of management’s key members.

What we didn’t get was an explanation of what ‘initiation of Phase I’ means. Does that mean production has started? Does it mean the hardware is now in place? Does it mean revenue is flowing? The news release didn’t say. What we did get, however, is a list of both companies’ officers and directors, and the geographic locations of any and all of Syndication’s partners (and some of their partner’s partners).

But wait - it gets even stranger….

McCutcheon Marshall Jr. (President of Syndication), when asked to comment on the merger, said:

“The only specific comment I have on the merger, is that I think it’s great…. However, as far as I understand, it was done some time ago. It’s the corporate policy style to let internal developments of the Company season a bit before releasing news…. Mr. Sorrentino wishes I not name at this time. As the legal department becomes comfortable it will allow me to release the details of these relationships, including the financing, but, not before,”

In all fairness, Marshall is a new addition, but did he actually say ‘as far as I understand’? I have no problem with a CEO not making legal assumptions (that’s what lawyers are for), but this guy seems to have no say at all, nor does he seem responsible in the least for getting Phase I going. Yet, his name is plastered all over the press release.

But wait - it gets even stranger….

Brian Sorrentino, the CEO of Syndication, stated….

“Mac (McCutcheon) has assembled a ‘World Class Team,’ why is anyone surprised?…. Mac moves fast. In just 4 short months he has launched the Bio-Diesel Phase of the program and has me working on Phase 2.”

First of all, did ‘Mac’ do anything or not? He says he really didn’t (though he doesn’t seem sure), and Brian says he did. Worse than that, why is the President instructing the CEO what to work on (Phase II)? It all has to be done eventually, and the two likely work as a team. It’s just an odd (disfunctional?) way of posing it.

More than anything else though, the news release left me wondering one important thing…. so what? As an investor, why should I care if Phase I has been initiated?

Clearly I’m being rhetorical, as Phase I’s beginning means progress towards revenue. Considering the company’s extreme fuzziness though, a little more clarity is still needed. They never even came close to answering the ’so what?’ question.

As for SYNJ shares, the market loved the news despite the lack of meaning, sending the stock higher by 60%. However, Syndication shares have had a serious problem hanging onto its gains lately. Unless the market can attach some real dollar amounts (even ballpark guesses) to the news, this stock is one I advocate selling - taking profits - when it surges, and then buying on the dips.

If you’d like to hear more thoughts on Syndication Inc. (SYNJ) - including if we decide to recommend a trade on the stock - be sure to register for our free newsletter.  

4/28/2009

Ahhh, Remember When…..

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 6:43 pm

Remember when all you had to do was be in the market to be a successful investor? Transport yourself back to 1999 for a moment, when all was right with the world, and stocks were never going to quit rallying.

Now, with that as your backdrop, here’s a blast from the past - an article from September of 1999 that made that assumption. It was not only wrong, but it was painfully wrong. Just a sign o’ the times at the time.

http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/7.09/stocktopia.html

In all fairness, the Roger Ibbotson they mention in the article is the same Ibbotson I frequently refer to when talking about the market’s history, and likely future based on that history. His research and charts are sales tools used by lots of brokers and financial advisers (I used to be one). Most of those tools became obsolete between 2000 and now though, as the market has not ‘behaved’ as it should have.

Still, I respect his work, and I ultimately think he’s right about the VERY long-term results of the market. I just don’t think he factored in a secular bear market in the meantime.

Your Thoughts on Our Opinion of the Swine Flu Hysteria

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 8:05 am

Thanks for all the early feedback on yesterday’s article ‘Swine Flu Threat is a Hollow Opportunity‘. Frankly, I was more than a little worried it would stir up a hornet’s nest of controversy, but it didn’t - even if people didn’t agree. On that note, we’ve got some of your comments and questions below. First, however….

Yesterday we took the minority stance; today we’re going to counter our anti-hysteria opinion by saying it’s not wrong to invest in ant-viral manufacturers are vaccine manufacturers. Roche/Gilead sold a ton of Tamiflu between 2003 and now. We’re just saying it took years to do so, and sale s of Tamiflu never reached the proportions the market thought it would.

In other words, we’re just saying think first, and think long-term here. Nobody else was yesterday, and they may pay the price today. That’s all.

Anyway, here are other reader e-mails.

Here’s a great question about Nuvilex’s Citroxin.

I was very surprised you didn’t mention Citroxin which is being tested by Nuvilex, Inc. (formerly Efoodsafety). Citroxin is supposed to be effective for bird flu and the MRSA staph. What’s your opinion on this? Nuvilex was extremely active today.

Editor’s response: Thanks for bringing that up. Truthfully, I forgot about Citroxin, but that’s not a huge surprise - that’s not quite my forte. On the other hand, I heard nothing about Nuvilex from the media yesterday either, so I wasn’t alone.

That said, I’m going to punt this one back to you or one of our other readers who may know more about Citroxin than I do (which wouldn’t take much). Is Citroxin a contender in the swine flu battle? If you’ve got some insight, leave it below.

Here’s another response.

Thank you for the very informative historical review of similar medical crises, and the subsequent “fading away” after so much concern and fear was spread to support certain of the manufacturers of treatment products.

I had never heard of the Gilead Company (GILD).  I might be interested in investigating some of the other product developers.

Editor’s response: Our pleasure. Glad we could point out something that perhaps makes or saves you some money.

And finally we got this note, which wasn’t so much a note to us, but rather a note about us and the article.

I own stock in a company that deals with developing remedies for various contagious diseases.  It is SIGA.  In fact it is my best performer since I have made over 140 percent even at this point in time.  This is not to say I am recommending running out and purchasing any stock.  In fact, the whole point of the following article is to do just the opposite.I must admit however, when I heard about the swine flu I was wondering if SIGA was working on a vaccine or whatever.  I couldn’t find anything associated with the company and swine flu.  I also thought it may be a reason for stock shooting up in a company that was working with the disease as fears mounted.   Since I don’t have the cash to buy anything now it was a moot point.

Today I get this article because I am apparently on Smallcap Network’s mailing list.  It really was excellent in my view and had the upside of updating me on the various scares in the past including SARS and Bird Flu.  This then led me to some research on the net about epidemics vs. pandemics.  I found a great site that discusses death rates throughout history of horrible pandemics and explains “Pandemic Alert Levels” I never knew existed.  http://www.nowpublic.com/health/pandemic-alert-levels-and-swine-flu-outbreak-pandemic-v-epidemic    Can you imagine the 1918 flu pandemic killed 40 million people?

So the point of all this is you may want to keep your cash in pocket and use it to pay taxes.  It looks like that is getting pandemic as well.

Editor’s response: We wanted to add the note here because the reader brings up a great point we don’t want to ignore…. pandemics can and do happen. The link he offers verifies it. We just think medicine and containment efforts are so much better now that pandemics are highly unlikely.

Like we said in the article though, eventually, one of these bugs is going to get us. I’ve got a feeling it will be so nasty/deadly, there won’t be anything to invest in or capitalize on, as nothing will be effective in treating it. Just a hunch.

Final Word

Thanks again for all the feedback, and feel free to keep it coming. You can use the area below to respond to this particular post.

4/23/2009

Questions & Answers About Tuesday’s Sentiment, Contrarian Indicators

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 1:52 pm

As always, we love to read and respond to your e-mails… even the ones that are in disagreement (and even the ones that aren’t always nice). Tuesday’s edition “Down 4%, Almost Just What The Doctor Ordered” sparked a lot of responses from our reader base, and a few of those questions and comments are worth answering publicly. So, here they are.

One reader wrote in…

You guys are jokers; why could not you say so on Friday. You watch and describe what you see and then turn around afterwords and say you already knew it. You can’t play confidence tricks. First predict and then say, I said so. It is my advice to you.

SCN Response: Hi. You’re always welcome to comment and criticize (and disagree). However, please do so consistently and fairly.

Contrary to what you said/implied, we were VERY specific with our words, citing the expectation of a pullback all the way to the 790/800 zone. (in response to a comment the reader made in a different e-mail “It is a mumbo-jumbo statement that is imprecise and worthless.”) How much more precise can we be? We’ve told you twice now to look for a pullback to the 800/790 zone.

In response to your other comment “why could not you say so on Friday?”, it’s because we didn’t publish on Friday. However, we DID call for a substantial pullback back on the 6th….
(http://www.smallcapnetwork.com/Stock-Market-Update-Lower-Before-Higher-But-A-Survivable-Dip/af/archive/20090406-1/)

As much as we’d like to publish in real-time, every day, and hold your hand every step of the way, that’s not what we do. That’s not even what we want to do. It sort of seems like you want someone else to take 100% responsibility for your success. Sorry - that’s still on your shoulders. We’re only trying to provide perspective you won’t get from the talking heads on TV.

Another reader wrote…

Thank you for your notes to-day.
 
Can you tell me an easy way to track the VIX, ISE Call Option and Conference Board Consumer Confidence?
 
Also, where may I read more on how to interpret these measurements?
 
thank you.

SCN Response: Unfortunately, the only place I know that looks at this data consistently (and interprets it) is….. smallcapnetwork.com.

The VIX is a cboe.com creation, and the ISE sentiment index (put/call ratio) is an ISE Exchange creation. Those websites probably offer a chart of each.

The consumer confidence chart  (long-term, anyway) is only created by us that I’m aware of. Short-term charts (too short to be of any real use) may be available at briefing.com.

We also got this comment…

Its clear from your own chart, Consumer confidence is highly correlated to S&P500. hence when they are both high they will, naturally go back down at some time in the future. The problem is timing, and I don’t see how consumer confidence is an indicator of WHEN you are at a peak vs. still climbing.

SCN Response: Great point.

We didn’t bring this up in the text, just because it’s a lengthy discussion that most people wouldn’t read (and it can complicate matters). Here’s the answer to your concern though…

There are two basic ways to not fall into the the trap you described.

1. Consumer confidence tends to ‘turn’ before the market does. So, we look for the point where consumers feel and think differently even if the market’s action is still suggesting something else. Confidence ‘leads’ by about 1 to 3 months, though you can’t quite tell it from the highly-compacted chart.

2. We use Bollinger bands to spot the extremes, meaning we look for the points where confidence has reached too far, too fast (both good and bad). A reading of 120 is tolerable if the reading has progressed from 116, to 117, to118, to 119, and to 120. However, if a confidence reading moves from 80 straight to 120, it’s probably going to intercept an upper Bollinger band, and thus tell us confidence has peaked (which is bearish). Obviously we didn’t apply Bollinger bands yesterday, just to avoid raising more questions than we answered.

It’s still not an absolutely perfect indicator, but it’s a powerful one when used as described above - more powerful than many other tools used to time the market. We’ve managed to successfully ’systemize’ it, meaning back-tested, hypothetical trading using the data as we described above has yielded results that easily beat a buy-and-hold approach.

Hope that helps.

** That’s it for now, but like I said, we’re open to any reasonable question or response.

Did you miss the newsletter that started this discussion? Don’t miss the next one, or you might be missing out on profits too! Sign up for the free Small Cap Network newsletter today.

4/13/2009

Your Burning Questions (about inflation, restricted shares, and our site’s picks)

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 7:10 am

As  we’ve mentioned before, we welcome any and all questions from our readers about anything…. the market in general, individual stocks, rules and regulations, and whatever else is on your mind. So, don’t be shy - send ‘em in when you’ve got them. On that note, when we get a question that would be worth sharing with all our readers, we take your name and e-mail address out and post the Q&A publicly. Here’s the latest round of your questions and our responses.

First up……

How does pumping billions into the economy cause inflation?

Thanks for the question, which was in response to something we mentioned in the April 10th newsletter. Without getting too far into the philosophy, the government can print more money and put it into circulation within the U.S. economy. However, they can’t control how much those dollars are worth.

Think of it as making change….if you trade in a $10 bill for two $5 bills, you’ve still only got $10. Well, that’s not too far off from what happens when the Fed puts more dollars into the economy by buying Treasury bonds.

The Fed’s goal in doing so is to increase liquidity by supplying a few extra bucks that will eventually end up in everyone’s pockets (to various degrees). It sort of works, but the side effect counters most of the positive effect. What side effect is that? Prices of everything go up, as there’s no such thing as wealth creation…. at least not like that. For instance, the dollar that was worth $1.00 before the cash injection is now worth $0.50 after the cash injection. So, it then takes two “$0.50″ dollars to buy a loaf of bread that used to be bought with one true “$1.00″ dollar.

There’s still an upside to the Fed’s practice, but it’s not one without the negative consequence of inflation. Ideally, the lesser of two evils prevails.

Here’s a more technical explanation: http://www.economicshelp.org/macroeconomics/inflation/persistent_inflation.html
We also got this question about restricted shares…..

I purchased some shares 30 months ago from 2 U S Companies. They were restricted, I think under 144 or some such thing. I understood after 24 months restrictions have to be lifted, but this has not happened, What gives?

Great question. In a nutshell, you have to ask for the restrictive legend to be removed, as nobody will volunteer to do it…. at least not in my experience. The SEC site says you should contact your transfer agent, but I’d first try to contact the brokerage firm where you’re holding the stock and ask them to make it happen. It could take anywhere from a couple of weeks to a couple of months. (Note that the company you bought shares in also has to sign off on removing the restriction.)

Here’s the SEC page that explains more of the details: http://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/rule144.htm

And finally….

At one time we could have a portfolio on the small cap network site and view the progress of the stocks every day. Are you going to initiate that option to your readers?

You may have noticed a change in the Small Cap Network’s scope and flavor lately. However, you ain’t seen nuthin’ yet. Within several weeks the Small Cap Network is going to be a true community.

Will that mean we bring back the original position table? We can’t say yet, but we can say you’re going to like what you see when it’s all ready to roll. I suspect what you’re looking for will be available, though it may not look a little different… for the better.

That’s it for now, but again, you’re always invited to contact us with your questions.

4/1/2009

April Fool’s Day Pranks, For The High Brow Economist

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 10:34 am

They never actually acknowledged it was a joke, but I’m, sure it is…. at least I hope it is. Hmmmm.
http://www.economist.com/world/britain/displayStory.cfm?story_id=13395767

2/24/2009

Obama’s Strangely Unoptimistic Speech, Will It Impact Our New Trades?

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 9:34 pm

Well, I guess I was wrong about President Obama not saying anything destructive in Tuesday night’s Congressional address. Certainly there were the expected glimmers of hope, but there were too many moments where he was preaching about poor/destructive decisions, and how we’re still up the creek.

Everything he said was true, mind you, but we don’t need to be reminded of it. All we really needed on Tuesday evening was a little bit of Reagan. I don’t get how he didn’t get that.

Anyway, I’m really only concerned with how the market is going to react to his words. Maybe investors will hear things differently than I did. I felt a little scolded and warned at times, but maybe the net effect for everybody else will be renewed optimism. We’ll see.

In the big picture, the only immediate impact it could have on us is with our new trades. We issued technical trade alerts for Molina Healthcare (MOH) and Phase Forward (PFWD). As we said in the newsletter though, their success really depended on Obama being able to restore enthusiasm and interest in all-things-financial. I don’t know that he did that, so those two stocks could start out in the hole.

I’m not overly-worried here, as I think stocks are oversold enough right now that a rebound (short term) is on the way no matter what. I just think President Obama could have mowed a path and given us a good start.

By the way, here’s a transcript of the speech, and here’s a web replay.

Do you want to stay in touch with all our thoughts about how government policy impacts your stocks? Just sign up for the newsletter.

1/14/2009

Strange-But-True Tales of Human Weasels (and we don’t mean Madoff)

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 9:15 am

What is going on in the world? Is it me, or have people - and things - just gotten strange over the last year? That’s not a giant surprise… the most dire economic crisis any of us have ever faced means I have slightly less hair than I did in 2007. That’s not what I’m talking about though. I’m not even talking about Bernie Madoff either…. that guy was out of his mind to think he’d never get busted, but his delusional abilities allowed him operate his crime before the market turned sour.
What I’m talking about is this guy, who tried to fake his own death when his money management firm started to be investigated. That’s not even the weird part though. I’ll let you read for yourself, but here’s a little hint…. anybody remember D. B. Cooper?

http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/01/13/missing.pilot/index.html?eref=onion

Then there’s the tax-cheater that’s now going to head up the government agency that make sure you don’t cheat on your taxes (and that’s misleading, nor an exaggeration).

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Source-Geithner-failed-to-pay-apf-14050873.html
Maybe it’s just me, but wouldn’t that be part of a basic background check for any IRS employee, let alone the guy who runs it?

It’s gettin’ weird out there. Anybody else have a strange-but-true story that unfolded (perhaps unraveled) in 2008?

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1/9/2009

Proof That You Got Played

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 8:26 am

It was only a few minutes ago that I blogged my suspicions about the futures turning bullish after a terrible jobs and unemployment report. I would have no problem buying into a weak open or strong move lower. However, I just didn’t trust the immediate, optimistic reaction from the futures market about the 8:30 AM employment announcement. As such, I was fully prepared to stay on the sidelines today, waiting for the bottom to fall out.

The first 30 minutes of trading (9:30 AM to 10:00 AM) validate my concern - the market opened strong…. for about two minutes. Then, it’s been nothing but selling, selling, selling.

What happened to all the bullish futures traders between 8:30 AM and 9:32 AM? Nothing happened to them… they never existed. That was a relatively clever (and fairly big) trader or trading team pushing the market up just enough to make everyone think it was going to be a bullish day so they could sell into your buying.

In short, we all got played.

The more you trade, the more you can recognize this tactic, and avoid it. I was burned enough early on in my career to spot that kind of crap now. If you’re not there yet, you’ll get there (nothing teaches better than a loss, eh?)

Now - after 10:00 AM - things look considerably different, for the better. Looks like whoever wanted to dump stocks is done. Now, I’m buying what they shed, and I’m buying it at a pretty decent price.

The lesson to be learned is not to avoid the market. The lesson to be learned is to beat them at their own game - don’t get suckered into a rally that just doesn’t make sense.

The other lesson to keep in your back pocket is that the first half hour of trading is almost always best avoided. It’s considered ‘amateur hour’, but really, it’s the pros taking advantage of the amateurs. If you can align your trades with the pros, then it’s great. If you can’t though, the best thing to do is wait for them to finish their morning activity.

Anyway, here’s the one-minute chart of the Dow. Stark, isn’t it?

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U.S. Economy ‘Misplaces’ 2.6 Million Jobs in 2008

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 7:28 am

I don’t want to say that we ‘lost’ 2.6 million jobs in 2008, as - not unlike car keys - I hope we simply misplaced them, and will retrieve them later (and no, I’m not making light of the terrible situation). That said, I have to confess I’m a little shocked at the initial reaction… futures actually went from in the red to on the black after the news came out. I guess that’s all the proof you need that trading is more about expectations and perception than it is about actual results - the rally stemmed from the fact that losing 525,000 jobs in a month was better (or should I say “not as bad”) as the market expected.

Unemployment now stands at 7.2%… a figure that bugs me a heck of a lot more than losing 525K jobs in a month. Investors don’t seem to mind, or at least they don’t seem surprised. I’ll follow that lead for the time being, but honestly, I don’t trust the early strength in the shadow of what should be considered a reason to sell.

Had the futures plunged after the announcement, and had the market sank after the opening bell rang, I may have been inclined to buy at a low point. I really can’t get my arms around buying into a strong open though.

Regardless, where we close today means about ten times as much as where we open, so I may be on the sidelines today while other investors sort this out.

Oh, and just for the record, the last time unemployment was this high was 1992. The peak unemployment rate that year was 7.8% (Ouch!), though we clearly survived it.

However, I would caution anyone again comparing absolute unemployment levels at different points in time. It’s always a slightly different scenario from one recession to the next. That’s not to say this one’s better or worse - just different, and possibly not comparable.

Personally, I’ve found that the direction of the unemployment trend - from any level - is a better gauge of the market’s bullishness or bearishness than any particular level or reading (meaning rising unemployment is bad for stocks, whether it’s rising from 2.5% or rising from 6.5%). It does have to peak sometime though… and I can’t help but wonder if we’re now to the point where it really can’t get any worse. Guess we’ll see.

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1/5/2009

LIBOR-OIS Spread Shows Real Evidence TARP is Adding Loan Liquidity

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 6:37 am

For several weeks now we’ve been using the so-called ‘TED Spread’ as a measure of how healthy (or unhealthy) the credit market has been. Since the TED Spread indicates the perceived difference between the safety of lending to other banks versus the safety of lending to the government (which is basically considered risk-free), the TED spread is a decent indication of how likely or unlikely a bank is to make a loan to another bank…. which is how most banks get the money they lend out. [Lending out your own money is so passé. Putting someone else’s money on the table is the wiser choice in the new economy.]

That’s a rough, thumbnail sketch of the TED Spread. If you want the full-blown explanation, click here to revisit the October 8th edition.

Well, not that we’re putting the TED Spread on the shelf for good, but we now want to shift our attention to another measure of credit liquidity… how much cash is actually available for borrowing? Lower risk is great, but if the money’s not available to lend out, then it’s just not available. Thus, lending can’t fully thaw out.

To figure out just how much cash liquidity there is out there (i.e. cash available for lending), we can use the 3-month LIBOR-OIS Spread.

The what? The ‘LIBOR’ definition is still the same… the London InterBank Offered Rate, which is the interest rate charged for short-term interbank loans all banks need from time to time to meet short-term liquidity requirements. The ‘OIS’ is the Overnight Index Swap rate.

The difference between those two rates is the perceived (though generally accurate) availability of funds available for short-term loans. In this case, the spread would indicate the availability of funds for three-month loans, though that kind of available cash for lending would benefit all sorts of loan time frames.

Anyway, the higher the LIBOR-OIS Spread, the less money there is for lending.

Almost needless to say, the spread went sky high in September, peaking at 3.64 in early October. That was the highest reading I could find since the spread’s been tracked. (Let me know if you can find verifiable instances of a higher LIBOR-OIS Spread.) Of course, you don’t need me to tell you that there was just no lending money available to pretty much anyone in October - a problem that persisted through the better part of December as the spread was coming down.

Anyway, here’s the good news… it looks like TARP’s intended liquidity injection may finally be making a dent. Or, maybe it wasn’t TARP but just time that helped. Either way, the LIBOR-OIS Spread is now back to 1.24, which is the lowest (healthiest) reading since September.

That’s still not as strong as the sub-1.0 readings that were the norm prior to September, but I don’t think we’ll see those levels again, ever. Lending policies, as we know now, were just way too loose then. I suspect the LIBOR-OIS Spread will still sink a little from here, but 1.24 isn’t bad at all.

Here’s a chart… a pretty stunning visual.

LIBOR-OIS Spread

Like I said above, the TED Spread still has a role going forward… it’s just not a complete picture. I think we’ll start looking at both in tandem as we study the credit market’s in the future. In the meantime, this is great ‘bigger picture’ news for the economy. It’s not a fix-all, but it’s a start.

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12/30/2008

Your Thoughts on our ‘Top Ten’ Predictions for 2009

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 10:36 am

The first batch of feedback from yesterday’s ‘Top Ten Market Predictions for 2009′ has arrived. Since everything in it, and all the responses to it, are going to be broad, I’m going to post them here in the blog. As more roll in, I’ll add them in other blog entries.

Here’s the first one.

Interesting predictions but I am not fully persuaded. First, I am much more bearish. I do agree that the Glass-Steagall Act separating investment banking and commercial banking will not be restored in 2009. More likely investment banking will go the way of the Dodo bird. But I don’t see the Titans taking the Superbowl this time.

Editor’s response: Interesting. Who do you think might be doing investment banking going forward? I ask because someone has to do it….maybe. You make an interesting point though - how much investment banking do we need, and what will it look like in the future? They (all the IBs) seem to be disintegrating. I don’t think it will go away though. If not the Titans, who do you like?

Next up…

If you think Linux is worthy, look at Leopard. a fantastic OS!

Editor’s response: Thanks. I’ve never heard of Leopard, but I’ll check it out.

And finally, we got this e-mail, which touched on several topics.

Thanks for all the neat predictions. I had put off going from XP Pro SP2 as long as could. Probably still be with XP Pro if I’d guessed how bad Vista was to be. In the end tho with the Vista SP2 beta release things have been more stable. Any probs that do arise are generally from the occasional rogue program I try like an old chess game I might find from some years back. Running Vista’s disk check during the reboot required for that does return things to normal. Things that usually go wrong on a rogue s/w are loss of sounds and presence of DVD. But as mentioned that clears up. Someone else also mentioned Windows 7.0 is just more bloar for now as with IE 8 beta. Oh, also heard some others on TV liking Slumdog Millionaire. Couple clips I’ve seen were so so. Prob have to be there. Ben Button tho got some glowing recos. But then it took me forever to finally see In Bruges and Casino Royale. All the best for a better New Year. Doubt can be more shaky since now we know what can really go bad.

Editor’s response: Thanks for the note. In order….

  1. I understood about half of what you said regarding Vista’s functionality. I’ll get my computer-guru friend to translate the rest. I’d really like to get away from Vista, but can’t find all the drivers I need.
  2. Yeah, if the chatter is correct, Buttons gets the nod, but Slumdog will be a contender. It seems like the Oscars are always a surprise though.
  3. Agreed; it may not be any better in 2009, but it sure can’t get any worse than 2008.

If you’ve got any feedback, you can add it below.

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12/23/2008

Credit Market Is Actually Warming Up, More Lending Activity on the Way

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 9:56 am

Not that they’ve done anything right before this, but the Fed’s decision to lower interest rates last week - to unprecedented low levels - has indeed fostered a little more willingness to lend. It’s still not great, but it’s better than it was.

My basis for the assessment lies in the TED spreadthe measure of risk banks perceive they’re taking on by lending to other banks. The TED spread is as low as it’s been in months, after peaking at record-breaking levels in October when the credit market was frozen solid.

(What exactly is the TED spread, and why does it matter? We explained it on full detail in early October. Click here to review that explanation.)

As of right now, the TED spread’s reading is 1.44. For perspective, that’s almost back to the 1.1 level we saw before the lending market fell apart, and it’s well under the October peak of 4.63. In other words, the credit market is almost on its feet again, as banks aren’t terrified to lend to other banks. (Nobody actually lends their own money… they borrow money form other banks to lend to their own customers.)

Just for the record, I think when/if the TED spread gets back to 1.1 - though it wouldn’t surprise me if it didn’t though - I don’t think the lending market will actually be the same “no holds barred/no questions asked” kind of industry.

Even people with great credit are struggling to get loans now, so the standards will be much healthier going forward. That’s a good thing though - the interest rates will now actually reflect the true risk, whereas they didn’t before. We all have to jump through a few more hoops to get the rates we deserve, but it’s better than going back to the way things were (which caused the mess in the first place).

I digress though…. my point was just to let you know that the lending market is getting healthy again. Here’s the chart.

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12/22/2008

More Madoff Madness… Funny-But-True Quotes

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 8:20 am

As George Castanza would say about the Bernie Madoff fiasco, “This thing is like an onion - the more layers you peel, the more it stinks!” We got another round of news regarding the scandal this past week, and it stinks even more than it did.
I’m not going to rehash that here though… I’m more interested in some of the remarks about the latest batch of investigations. Some of them are funny, even if they don’t mean to be.

Here are a couple of my favorites….

Felix Salmon of Conde Nast’s Portfolio.com stated about the resulting confidence crisis…

“if you’re an investor, yes, you should be worried about losing your money to fraud — but you should also be even more worried about losing it the old-fashioned way, by investing it with a hedge fund manager who blows up spectacularly.”

Comparing the SEC’s complete failure to a Keystone Cops shtick, Greg Newton rebutted:

“characterizing the SEC as The Keystone Cops does defamatory disservice to The Keystone Cops’ investigative skills.”

Those were the only two I found that were appropriately bitter but also funny. As more of these jaded quips arise though, I’ll be sure to post them here.

Anybody else have one I missed? Leave ‘em below.

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12/19/2008

Option Expiration Week Creating a Little Havoc for Stocks

Filed under: — SmallCapNetwork Editor @ 7:35 am

Do you wanna’ know where the market is going to close today? I‘ve got a pretty good guess….either it will be spot on, or way off (how’s that for non-definitive). Frankly, I hope the guess is way off, because reaching the ’spot on’ target would be a sharp move lower. More on that in a second. What I wanted to do first was update my chart of, and thoughts on, yesterday morning’s look at the S&P 500 and the VIX.

Below is the exact same chart I gave you before, only updated with yesterday’s closing prices. Two problems immediately come to mind. The first is, the S&P 500 slid back under its 50 day moving average line. The second is, the VIX appears to have found support at its lower Bollinger band line. Both suggest the rally is winding down. All hope is not lost quite yet though.

It could take a few days for the market to get comfortable with the idea of a recovery. As such, we might see several ‘retests’ of the recent upward thrust. That’s a good thing. As long as we can hold our ground, and the down days come on lower volume than the good days, we’ve still got a better-than-average shot at emerging on the bullish side of the fence. Take a look at the chart, but then keep reading for the less-optimistic reality.

Ever heard of the ‘max pain’ theory? As far as the market is concerned, it’s the somewhat-cynical (though not entirely untrue) idea that the market has a way of providing the maximum amount of pain - losses - for the majority of investors.

The options market has a way of showing you a potential ‘max pain’ effect by indicating at which particular strike price most calls and puts are owned. Wherever the market can close and cause most options to expire worthless, well, that’s likely where the market will close on expiration day… which is today.

There’s something of a quirk with the idea though…..it’s either dead-on, or waaayyy off. There’s no in-between. That ‘way off’ result still provides some pretty decisive pain, but only for most of the call owners, or most of the put owners. Point being, this isn’t the kind of thing you want to bet on too early… sometimes the outcome we’re headed towards doesn’t become clear until the last day of expiration week.

Anyway, right now most of the owned calls are at 850, while most of the puts are owned at the 825 and 875 strike…right between 850. The most pain would be created by a close somewhere below 850 (where all those calls would be worthless) and above 825 (where at least the 825 puts would be worthless). A close under 875 would still be profitable for owners of the 875 puts though.

Here’s the SPX option open interest grid from CBOE.com. Take a look, but then keep reading for the alternative possibility.

The second scenario is a close above 875. That would make all the puts - both the 825 and the 875 strike - worthless, though it would reward all those folks who own the 850 calls. Normally the odds of this outcome would be a distant second. However, there’s obviously a lot more open interest with the puts than with the calls here… so the ‘max pain’ could actually come with a bullish close. I prefer that scenario, but I’m not getting married to any guess.

The good news is, the futures are well up this morning, and we sold off sharply yesterday. That sets up a strong possibility for the second (bullish) outcome today. As always though, be diligent and keep an eye on this erratic market.

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