Headline: Starbucks to Close 600 Stores

By my estimates, assuming 3000 caffeine-addicted ‘regulars’ per store, this will displace 1.8 million Starbucks customers. Now they’ll have to walk another 40 feet to go the Starbucks across the street from the one they normally go to, since their store is closing.

I was convinced we could be in the middle of a nuclear war, and somebody would still be sipping a cafe latte at their local Starbucks. Guess the shiny has worn off now that push has come to shove. Or, maybe the world’s starting to realize a $6 cup of coffee is still just coffee.

I’ve mentioned a couple of times that a true market bottom would be marked by a huge number of stocks hitting new lows on the New York Stock Exchange. We’ve been getting closer to the ‘too many’ level over the last few days, and we really got close yesterday. But, we’re not quite there yet.

We saw 622 new NYSE lows made on Tuesday. That’s a ton. If this were 2005 that would be a great sign of a bottom. This is 2008 though, and we’re trading in the shadow of a major bear market move - a lot of stocks are or should be hitting new lows with the market at or near 52-week lows. (We’ve seen days where close to 1000 stocks were hitting new lows, and that was well before we got into this shape.)

In other words, I don’t think we’ve seen a short-term capitulation yet. We’re close though.

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I won’t dive all the way into the discussion this time around, since I’ve been analyzing the daylights out of this chart for days now. The one thing I was most interested in - potential support somewhere around 1260/1275 - has indeed materialized as support for the S&P 500. The chart below tells the tale. Take a look…it’s pretty obvious.

So what? Well, there’s no ’so what’ just yet…at least not one we didn’t know about. My only message is just to not make any assumptions. The market is holding up here, so jumping into bearish trades is something of an unmerited risk. In the same light, it’s not like the market has bounced off this support line either. No, this is indecision taking shape when push came to shove.

My expectation is still the same - I’m looking for the SPX (and all indices) to rise slightly in the wake of a harsh dip. I’m not counting on a full-blown rebound until the VIX spikes. That may indeed happen soon, but we don’t know that it will. Still, I’m more trusting of the VIX’s clues than I am the market’s hints….the market’s hints have been misleading of late.

Some of you have asked how we’ll know if the bullish effort is a fake-out or for real. I suggest using what I’m using - the 20 day moving average line. I plotted it on black on the chart. If the S&P 500 moves above that level, I’ll be more open-minded about a rally. (Even then, the 20 day line has only been mediocre in this role lately.)

However, I stand by my early opinion….until the VIX spikes, I don’t think the bulls should dig in too deep.

Stay tuned.

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You don’t need me to tell you half of the trading battle is timing. Owning a great company isn’t enough anymore - picking the right stocks at the right time is critical to making any real money in this business. With that in mind, three charts caught my eye in Monday.

One of them won’t surprise you a bit, and another won’t entirely surprise you….they’re both on our small cap stock watchlist. The third one is a first-mention (or first one a long time anyway) - a large cap biotech familiar to all of us.

I mentioned this a couple of times last week, but after seeing yesterday’s bullish effort it bears repeating - I have to wonder if Spicy Pickle (SPKL) is poised to pop.

The stock pulled back rather sharply last week, but it may have been just enough to convince the majority of traders that now’s not the time to be in. Of course, the best time to get into a stock is when it looks like nobody wants it….the way Spicy Pickle looked last week.

Like I said, it’s just a feeling. It’s a feeling I was feeling back in April too….before the upside move.

On a similar note, Bio-Matrix (BMSN) has put a pretty quick end to the pullback following its recent encounter with new 52-week highs. The peak of $1.29 on the 13th led to a low of 86 cents by the 24th. But, BMSN found footing again; now it’s trading at $1.00. This stock’s uptrend has been resilient.

Still no word on Bio-Matrix’s pending license inspection. It should be soon, if it hasn’t been completed yet. I’m pleasantly surprised to see the stock do as well as it has without that news in place. When-and-if they do get successfully licensed, I expect BMSN to really move….at least for a short time.

On that note though, I have to wonder if we should be thinking like short-term sellers shortly after any announcement from Bio-Matrix. The stock’s been a hot one, and at this point I’ll concede the possibility that getting the tissue bank license is already priced in. ‘Buy the rumor, sell the news’ is a cliche for a reason…as is the whole thing about a bird in the hand. Once the dust settles and the volatility is out of the way, then you can start looking for another entry point. I don’t want to miss a good exit opportunity though, even if only for the short term.

Just something to think about - we can cross that bridge when we come to it.

Now, about this large-cap biotech stock…

I’m not totally sold on the idea just yet, but I could be easiliy convinced that Amgen (AMGN) is positioned for a rally.

I’ve mentioned I like biotech a couple of times recently, and Amgen certainly falls right in the framework of that point of view. Though I’m still looking specifically for smaller biotech companies, I’m not going to pass up a good large cap opportunity.

The chart is the key for me. We’ve already seen AMGN work its way past a moderately significant resistance line. We’re also on the verge of seeing it move back above its 200 day moving average line….for the first time in over a year. If we see it happen, I’m in. I’ll let you know if it happens; we may even turn it into an official trade.

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We’re not even going to pretend to be Jim Cramer, though we don’t mind hosting something of a ‘Lightning Round’ of our own. We’ve gotten some questions about a handful of stocks the last few days, so we’re going to compile our responses and thoughts all in one place.

Of course, it’s not live, and it’s not impromptu…..which I guess takes the ‘lighting’ part of the description out. Anyway….

1) What are your thoughts in Aussie Soles (AUSE)?

You could do a lot worse, though that’s an unqualified opinion.

For those of you who don’t know, Aussie Soles is an Australian shoe maker. They specialize in making hyper-comfortable shoes…not unlike Crocs. Their claim to fame is the use of advanced ‘closed cell’ polymer foam. It’s light, sturdy, and ant-bacterial.

To answer the question from our reader, I like the chart, but I don’t know enough about the company to make a judgement call.

This bulletin board stock has traded well since it started trading on the board, though that was only in January. I have no history of the company’s success….maybe because the stocks is basically a new-comer. Do you have any information? My concern is the $85 million market cap. They would need to do about $40 million in sales each year to justify that. Maybe they can, but I just don’t see it happening. Let me know if there’s something I’m not seeing.

2) What do you think about Arena Pharmaceutical (ARNA)?

I liked it a lot better on Friday when it was rallying than I did on Monday when it was falling.

I’ll sum it up in seven words…..bad technicals, poor fundamentals, minimal future demand. Other than that, it’s great.

Their core focus is insomnia and weight loss drugs? Not that there’s not a need, but is this the best market they can come up with? OK, in all truthfulness, they’ve got other drugs in development; it’s just kind of hard to take them too seriously when they’re working so diligently on something that (frankly) isn’t all that hard-hitting.

If you’re one of those investors that likes profits - now or in the foreseeable future - you’re not going to be a fan of Arena.

As far as the chart is concerned, each rally effort is being met with even more selling. The 100 day moving average line appears to be the short-term hurdle, but even getting above it doesn’t seem inspiring.

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My apologies to anyone who read this weekend’s newsletter and wasn’t familiar with the CBOE Volatility Index, or the VIX. I sometimes forget what’s getting processed in my head isn’t necessarily implanted in yours. Since I plan on keeping close tabs on the VIX in the near future, let’s go ahead and look at what it is exactly.

The Chicago Board of Options Exchange designed an indicator a couple of decades ago that was intended to predict near-term volatility. It was called the VIX, or volatility index. The higher the VIX went, the more volatile the market was supposed to be over the next one to three months. The volatility expectation was determined by a change in options prices, which tend to increase or decrease with volatility…..presumably.

What the CBOE found was the VIX didn’t respond the same way to bullish volatility that it did to bearish volatility. As bearish periods started, the VIX moved higher. When bullish periods started, the VIX sank. It was not a predictor of volatility, but rather became a ‘fear gauge’. A Higher VIX meant investors were fearful, and a lower VIX meant investors were complacent.

As long as fear and complacency were nominal, no big deal. It was observed, however, as fear and greed hit extremes - when the VIX hit its extremes - that the market was likely to be at a point of reversal. That’s why we’re not expecting a major upside move just yet…there’s not been a good, solid peak in fear yet.

Is it a flawless strategy? No, but look at the chart below….it works more often than not.

Bottom line: The VIX is a fear gauge. That wasn’t quite what it was designed to be, but that’s how it’s been regarded almost since its inception. Moreover, it’s a pretty good contrarian tool to utilize.

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This morning I mentioned the Dow Jones industrials were the first to crack - to slip to new 52-week lows. As of right now, the S&P 500 is next in line…and on the verge of doing the same. It’s getting mighty ugly out there.

The key level to watch is 1272. That’s where January’s rebound was prompted. Though we traded under 1272 in March, we never actually closed under that level. Today’s low so far? You guessed it….1272. I think we could tolerate trading under it; I don’t think investors will be able to tolerate closing under it.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended up being the first to fall. You most likely know the Dow sank under March’s lows on Thursday. What you may not know is the Dow is also now almost at 2-year lows. Ouch! Had the blue chip index actually managed to find support at 11,600 or so, I think the Dow could have salvaged itself. However, I think the technical breakdown at this point is too great to easily overcome.

As a result, I don’t think it would be irresponsible to start looking at previous support levels. The only one I found was 10,700…more than 700 points below Thursday’s close of 11,453. Double ouch!

As always, nobody really knows what’s going to happen…that’s just the likely possibility in my view. It’s not fun to think about, but I’m not going to try and blow smoke up your you-know-what. You can get sunshine and roses anywhere else on the web. We want to be a source for realistic and legitimate opinion (even if we’re wrong sometimes).

By the way - and here’s a scary thought - the Dow is back under its 2000 peak level of 11,750. That’s eight years of blue chip index investing washed down the drain. These companies are supposed to be the biggest and best bellwethers? Whatever. Being big and old didn’t help you at all since 2000.

There’s a little good news in all this….even if temporarily. The other major market indices aren’t getting punished quite as badly - at least not yet anyway. Look for comments on those indices later today.

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Most of you will know we’ve been paying close attention to micro cap stock Spicy Pickle (SPKL) over the last few days. A major support line at 83 cents was broken this week, and we watched SPKL sink to a low of 69 cents as a result. If that number rings a bell, it may be because that’s basically where the stock hit a low and rebounded in April.

The obvious question is, do we buy or sell here? My honest opinion is that this is a great opportunity to buy. That’s not to say it’s risk-free, but from my point of view this pullback is simply a washout of some selling that’s been ‘on the verge’ for a long time.

And just as a reminder, the same bearish arguments many folks are bound to be making now were also being made back on April 4th…right before the rebound to a peak of $1.01.

The other reason I’m far more apt to be a buyer than a seller here (in addition to a retest of a key support level) is the shape of the daily bars the last three days. Tuesday and Wednesday were fairly harsh, and on significant volume. Thursday was bullish - in the face of marketwide weakness - on slightly better volume.

It’s your call, but small cap and bulletin board stocks have a way of zigging just when it looks like they’re going to zag. I’m expecting the less obvious possibility to play out, based on my past experience.

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I’m wondering if someone for the Associated Press was standing over my shoulder yesterday when I went way overboard finding out how and why the biotech sector was looking good again. I published my article (Which Biotechs Have Been Nursed back to Health?) yesterday afternoon, and Forbes.com came out today with a story basically saying the same thing. I guess great minds think alike…or I at least hope great minds think alike.

The article - Biotech: Large Cap or Small Cap - actually said that mid-caps offered the most opportunity according to some analysts, but went on to say small caps were attractive too. The large caps were the ’safe’ and promising plays, though one analyst interviewed mentioned the small cap biotechs seemed to have better pipelines.  

No big deal, but if you wanted a second opinion, there ya’ go. It’s a pretty good, and short, read.

The article mentions a few specific companies, but I’m going to try and compile my own list of biotech ‘yays and nays’. Look for that soon.

I’m not going to make any comment here. I’m just going to recommend you fill up you gas tank tonight. Take a look at the chart of crude oil futures…you’ll see what I mean.

Actually, I will say one thing….when do you think the rest of the world will realize OPEC and other exporters are just toying with us? It was OPEC yesterday, and Libya today. They’re just yanking our chain.

Oh well, the bubble will pop eventually, once we realize the supply/demand ratio hasn’t gotten nearly as small as the price would indicate. In the meantime though - manipulation or not - I’m steering clear.

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As I’ve always stressed, we review and respond to all questions. Sometimes we even answer them in a public forum if we think it would be a good thing for everybody to know. Yesterday we got such a question via e-mail….it was the perfect time to explain to everybody how this site works. Our reader said…..

I was wondering when you recommended your stocks in play? Also do you let people know when to get out?

We always seem to have a new idea coming along, so if you’re looking for new ideas, just keep reading the newsletter. The directions are explicit, complete with an entry limit, target price, and a suggested stop. You’ll know it when you see it.

If you’re asking about when the ‘active’ current picks were made, you can find out a couple of different ways. One way is to click on the ticker symbol for the ‘Current Trades’ box, and you’ll be taken to a page with all the details - and a start date.

If you’re looking for the history (with dates) for our entire history, click on the ‘Trading Alerts’ tab in the top horizontal menu of the site. You can still select between open, closed, and all trades under that tab, but it’s easy to access. There’s a little less detail here, but if you click on any of the tickers on this page, you’re again taken to a page where you’ll find the entire history of our coverage.

Yes, we let people know when to get out….usually. Our assumption is you’ll get out if a target price is hit, so we probably won’t send an alert out with specific instructions to exit. If for some reason a stock is still active and we’re less than excited anymore - or we see something unusual (like a price spike) - we may send a note out to use your discretion.

To some extent you have to make your own decisions, as we’re not going to hold your hand through every last detail of every trade. But you’ll at least know where we stand when it comes to our opinion.

That’s not the only upside to this site though. You’ll also find tons of market commentary and bigger picture ideas to help guide you through those times where we don’t have a new trade for you.

My suggestion - take a look at the site to get a feel for how it works. Let us know if you have questions.

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It’s been a pretty long drought for biotech stocks. It’s not been necessarily bad for the last several months; it just hasn’t been good….even when other stocks were on the rise. All that has changed in the last month though, for some reason. The Biotech HOLDRs (BBH) have gained about as much as the market has lost in the last month. When I checked out the charts, I liked the charts as well….some of them anyway. (A few of the biotech indices still technically seemed a little shaky.)

My weapon of choice is the Dow Jones Biotech Index (DJUSBT). It includes almost all the listed biotech names. More on that in a second.

This chart is yet one more chart trading in a range. Yet, the pin-balling between those two boundaries can still make for good trading. DJUSBT recently crossed above its 200 day line, but I ultimately expect the index to reach 525 or so…approximately. That’s only about an 8.5% move, though if you pick the group’s leading stocks (or avoid the lagging ones), you could certainly do much better.

Take a look at the chart, then keep reading for some over-kill analysis.

So what’s all the talk about some biotech’s being better opportunities than others?

There are five major biotech ETFs, and three significant biotech indices. You’d think they’d all look about the same, but they don’t. The ones that look a little healthier - like the DJ Biotech Index or the Biotech HOLDRs - are significantly better looking than say the AMEX Biotech Index (BTK) or the iShares NASDAQ Biotech ETF (IBB). Why? Because these indices or ETF may or may not reflect smaller biotech companies.

The disparity got my wheels to spinning…and you know what that means.

In my quest to validate my theory, I also discovered something else…..that I have too much free time, and that there’s probably waaayyy too much information out there for investors to process. Of course, that didn’t actually stop me from processing it.

Believe it or not, there are indices that group biotech stocks by market cap. That means small, mid, and large. (I didn’t find a micro cap biotech index, but give it time.)

From top to bottom, we’re looking at a small-cap biotech index, a mid-cap biotech index, and a large cap biotech index. The last two panes you see are the S&P 1500 biotech index, and finally, the Dow Jones version. Take a look-see, and then we’ll wrap up…

Do with the information what you will, but a couple of things stick out to me….

1. The mid-cap strength impresses me, though I have to confess seeing that big move in early April makes me a little bit hesitant.
2. Of all the indices, the small cap biotechs appear to have the most upside potential from their present level. The larger biotech stock indices look a little bit past their prime….or at least well into any upward move.

The idea is to take this information and go find the leaders in the leading group, rather than try and squeeze out a gain from a member of a group that’s just not positioned as well. In other words, I’d be looking for small-cap or mid-cap biotech.

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Bear in mind it’s all temporary, but with the Fed’s key interest staying level at 2.0%, effective interest rates - and therefore the dollar - are sinking a little bit. In the dollar’s case though, a little can actually be a lot.

The chart below is the same one I’ve been featuring for a while now. It’s the U.S. Dollar Index (UDX), and you’ll see it’s bouncing around between a key support and resistance zone. In the shadow of today’s news, the sawbuck is sinking again. I think the dollar had largely been driven up by the possibility of a rate hike. Now that we know they didn’t raise rates, down goes the dollar. I suspect we’ll see the index fall all the way back to the lower support line.

Like I said, it’s all temporary. In the bigger, long-term picture, the Fed’s going to be forced to push rates higher sooner than later. This chart will still tell you when that’s begun to positively affect the greenback.

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No surprises here…Ben Bernanke thought 2% was good enough, though again tried to talk down inflation without actually doing anything about it. The market saw it coming too. The rally today occurred in front of the announcement; we’ve really not gone anywhere since then.

What I said yesterday in the newsletter still applies - I still think we have more downside to go, yet stocks were due for some relief from the selling. I was going to give traders a day or two (with or without the Fed’s help) to get it out of their system. The only thing today’s news likely did was to accelerate the move.

Bottom line - sit tight for today, and maybe even tomorrow. If/when we make a directional call, it will only be after all this volatility has been burned off. We’ll let you know exactly when we’ve seen it happen.

By the way, here’s the S&P 500’s intra-day (5 minute) chart. It’s pretty obvious when the Fed made the announcement. Let’s see if this morning’s buyers are going to be vindicated by 4 pm EST. I’m guessing not.

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In case you didn’t see the chart yesterday, small cap stock pick Spicy Pickle (SPKL) finally broke under a key support line that had been in place since mid-April. It was roughly at 83 cents. SPKL had traded as low as 81 cents last week and early this week, which didn’t bother me too much since we never closed under 83 cents. On Tuesday though, too many owners were tired of waiting. The stock hit a low of 70 cents…..and came right back to close at 78 cents.

So, am I bullish, or bearish? Neither just yet, though based on the way the stock acted on an intra-day basis, I’m actually leaning towards bullishness…depending on what happens today.

That deep low - and subsequent recovery - may have been just what the doctor ordered….a flushout of all the Nervous Nellies, and a significant buy-back following the move to new multi-week lows. In other words, there were lots of sellers in the early half of the day, and then lots of buyers in the latter half of the day. (The shape of the say’s bar can tell you quiet a bit about the market’s psychology.)

That said, today’s the critical day. The bulls really need to follow-on from yesterday’s efforts and push SPKL at least a little higher today. If not, some more Nervous Nellies could use yesterday’s slight rebound as another exit opportunity…which is comparatively better than the low of 70 cents.

I’ll post more thoughts as needed here.

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I really hope you were listening (ok, reading) on Thursday morning when I posted a blog entry about the subtle hints being dropped by the VIX as well as the market’s indices. With the VIX on the rise and the market sliding under previous support, I had a feeling we were going to see things take a turn for the worse.

Though stocks didn’t move much that Thursday, they got whacked on Friday (you can thank me later). Today’s been tepid. However, I do want to let you know I still see more downside in store.

What do I see exactly? The same as before - the VIX is pushing higher, and the S&P 500 is pushing lower. Here’s the killer though, if you’re bullish…..the VIX has tons of room to keep moving higher before a likely ceiling is met. Similarly, the S&P 500 won’t find a meaningful support line (now) until 1275.

And what about beyond that? A month ago I would have contemplated being bullish and buying a dip to that support line. Now I don’t know. Economically there’s a light at the end of the tunnel. Investors don’t care though, and that’s the key. 

On that note, I’ll now concede the first quarter pullback - though healthy - really wasn’t enough to drive the proverbial nail into the coffin….a capitulation. Once that happens, then we can truly start to rebuild stock valuations from the ground up.

If 1275 fails to hold up as support, I’m expecting a pretty decisive selloff that will do just that - force us to a bottom. The bearish trip to that bottom should be a trade-worthy move for puts or shorts (or bearish funds). Simultaneously, if the VIX breaks past 24.50, it could really start to rally, which would be bearish for stocks.

I guess ‘Sell in May’ was decent advice after all.

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If you’re not familiar with the role that support and resistance can play in trading, I think the recent chart of the U.S. Dollar Index (UDX) can illustrate the idea quite well. When I last looked at the sawbuck, I highlighted how - for the first time in years - it had made higher highs and higher lows. My worry was validated though….that we’d still see more short-term up and down, as the chart had been trapped between two pretty reliable guideposts.

Sure enough, UDX hit the upper resistance line, and started to sink towards the lower support line. It didn’t actually get all the way there though; it’s on the rebound today. I’m still a little bit hesitant, but today’s bar has a pretty bullish implication; maybe we’re done with that support line.

Just to be clear, I expect no less volatility than before. I just want to mention how in the bigger picture we’re still seeing higher highs. Though FOREX traders are making nice money with these 2-to-3 day swings, I’m mostly looking at the bigger trend.

That said, 73.80 is still a major line in the sand. So too is 77 (though it’s still a ways off). If the upper resistance line is breached, I’ll be looking for much faster and stronger upward move…up to the 77 area.

What’s this got to do with you unless you’re a FOREX trader? Two things. The first is, your weak dollars are largely what’s causing you pocketbook pain.

The other reason is, you don’t have to trade FOREX to trade currency. There are now ETFs that reflect the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and other major currencies. There are even options that trade on those ETFs (though they can be a little illiquid in some cases).

I’m mulling an option trade on one of those ETFs. I’ll let you know if and when I do it; feel free to trade along.

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This is just the first of several blog posts I’ll be posting today about the bigger picture, so be sure to stay tuned. For now though, I want to start with oil since it seems to be the most pressing issue. Though we’ve seen a couple of bullish days for oil, I think it’s worth noting that crude’s charts are still finding a ceiling around $138.

On the flipside, we’ve also seen a floor at $132, so we’re hardly ready to be oil bears yet. No, we’re just stuck in zone until one side or the other flinches.

I still contend oil is so overbought that there’s a greater likelihood of downside rather than upside. So far though, the market had neither proved nor disproved the theory. Mostly I’m waiting for the charts to tell me which way to trade, but we have to break out of this range first.

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A couple of days ago I really thought we were hitting a short-term bottom, start a trade-worthy bounce higher, and then re-start the bigger downtrend. Looks like the market by-passed the ‘bounce’ part and dove straight into ‘more downside’. Stocks got trashed yesterday, and aren’t doing all that well today.This week, however, I think something’s become clear…it’s a little too easy for stocks to sell off, and any bullish days we do manage to make can’t muster any follow-through. That’s two steps backward and one-step forward, which is tough to trade in any direction.

As such, there are no ‘trends’ to speak of unless you step away and look at a weekly chart. That trend, by the way, is bearish.

As is stands right now, I’m more inclined to remain in the bearish camp. Why? Two reasons. One is the VIX. The VIX is starting to trend higher again. The other reason is real results; the Dow and the S&P 500 have hit new multi-week lows today. Nothing speaks more loudly than actual numbers.

Like I said though, the subtle clues are easy selloffs, and challenged rallies.

If the S&P 500 closes under 1324 today (or sometime soon), I think that’ll pretty much deflate any hopes of a near-term recovery. Why 1324? That’s been a support level a few times recently. If that happens, we’ll need to see enough selling to create a mini-capitulation, which will likely be signaled by a VIX pop up to the 30 level. Needless to say, that leaves some room for more downside.

Keep an eye on 1324. If it fails as support, look for a revisit of 1271. More as things develop.

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