And that’s why you stay invested in stocks
Yesterday’s gain was touted as being the best gain of the year. Fine, but that’s no big deal. The sellers have been relentless most of the year, so it wouldn’t necessarily be a great feat to be the biggest gain of the year (less than three months) so far. What I’m kind of baffled about is how nobody really seemed to notice how yesterday was actually in the top 20 daily percentage changes for the Dow Jones Industrial Average….ever.
Oh, it was also the fourth biggest day since the 1930’s.
Granted, we’ve also seen some phenomenal daily losses in the last few months to go along with the daily gains (three of the top 20 days have been in the last six months). So, don’t get giddy yet. However…
As of right now, the market is up 21% from its March 6th low. Technically that constitutes a new bull market and the end of the bear market. Don’t go and bet the farm just yet though… we saw the same kind of pop in January and that clearly wasn’t the end of the bear market.
Still, I think this time around really could be different. Why? Because despite the size of the bounce, it seems like the majority of traders and ‘gurus’ out there still feel this is nothing more than a bear market rally. The market has a way of climbing a wall of worry. So personally, I think we’ve seen the ultimate bottom, but if I’m wrong it’s not going to haunt me….I’ll just sell my stuff before it sinks into the red (which is a lost art).
Anyway, the lesson learned here is that it doesn’t pay to hesitate or follow the crowd. That’s not permission to hold onto stocks through an entire bear market (or even one bearish leg). But, it is encouragement to step in at low points even if it feels uncomfortable to do so.
They say 30% if what was lost during a bear market is regained during the first 40 trading days of the next bull market. Based on what I’ve seen the last two weeks, I believe it. I for one am still phasing into stocks, and buying on the dips. I’m not buying today because yesterday was a little much to follow, but I will buy on the next dip.
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Love your newsletters….they make sense, you make sense. I look forward to reading them every day. I learned much from reading March 24 and March 26, 09!
I am a beginner who is learning quickly. Your newsletter is one of the better ones. Thank you.
Editor’s response: Our Pleasure. Let’s just hope ‘making sense’ turns into ‘making money’ (which is usually does).
Comment by JoAnn Moreschini — 3/29/2009 @ 12:24 am