Small Cap Stock Analysis

Will India's Party Spread Global Good Cheer?

Emerging Market Small-Caps May Catch the Fever

Published: Tuesday, May 19, 2009 @ 9:09 AM PDT
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They were partying in the streets of India Monday, celebrating the Congress Party-led alliance’s victory that boosted the Indian stock market 17%. Some of that enthusiasm spilled over globally and to other regional markets.

Many see this sigh of relief in India as an impetus for overall emerging markets. Others point to signs that growth had picked up in China over the past month as commodity prices rose, as did sentiment for emerging markets. That said, here’s a trio of small-cap stocks, poised to rally along with emerging markets.

With airlines folding left and right and serious transportation shortfalls worldwide, bulk-ocean shipping is thriving today and should for a long time to come. As a major transporter of iron ore, coal, grains, bauxite, fertilizers and steel products, Athens-based Star Bulk Carriers Corp. (NASDAQ: SBLK) should persist well into the relevant future. Greece has long demonstrated a comparative advantage in this arena.
 
Based on expected world growth and ongoing exporting and importing needs, shipping will be a transportation mainstay for years to come. World GDP growth is expected to plug ahead 3% this year.

The United States, Japan and European growth rate may fall to below 2%, but India and Asia are expected to keep surging at an 8% rate. Meanwhile, the Middle East, Latin American and Eastern European should keep cruising along at a respectable 4% to 5% clip.

The total fleet consists of four Capesize, and eight Supramax dry bulk vessels with an average age of approximately 9.7 years and a combined cargo carrying capacity of 1,106,250 deadweight tons.

The contracted time-charter employment coverage for the Star Bulk fleet has now reached 71% for 2009 and 43% for 2010 representing one of the highest vessel employment coverage rates in the dry bulk sector. 

China Direct Inc. (NASDAQ: CDS) is a Deerfield Beach, Fla.-based venture capital, management and consulting firm that bridges the gap between American investors and Chinese enterprises by helping businesses in mainland China gain access to American capital markets and investing in a diversified portfolio of high-growth Chinese companies.

In China’s initial period of economic and consumption explosion, it has delivered unparalleled profits over the past few years. The ability to prosper in tandem with China has been a long road to hoe, but a  number of successful IPOs, privatizations and mergers have made it one of the hottest investment arenas.

However it comes with its shares of stiff barriers: political bureaucracy, complex laws and restrictions are still a reality for investors and companies trying to gain a foothold in this region.

This company, slices through the red tape by providing management and consulting services to Chinese businesses. In this instance, you’re not investing directly in a Chinese company but in one that’s instrumental in helping businesses there thrive. And one that gets a piece of the action on every deal it works. CDS operated in relative obscurity after incorporating as Evolve One, Inc. in 1999, but began attracting Wall Street's attention in late 2007 when it began operating in the black, posting unexpectedly high third-quarter revenues. Since then, China Direct has flourished.

Finally, for the first time in history, emerging markets will use more oil than the U.S. I'm talking about countries like China, India, Russia, and parts of the Middle East.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) those countries are expected to consume 20.67 million barrels a day this year, an increase of 4.4%. The IEA predicts that U.S. demand will contract 2% to 20.38 million barrels daily.

So, I’m confident that China Natural Gas (NASDAQ: CNG), a Delaware- registered public company that owns and operates natural gas related businesses in China will be successful for a long time to come.

But before we start pointing fingers at the gas hogs in the developing world, remember that there are three billion of them and only 300 million of us. Per capita, we're still using a lot more oil than our friends in India and China. 
 
Last year, Chinese drivers bought 5.5 million cars, minivans and SUVs and three million commercial vehicles, up from just 1.6 million vehicles sold in 1997. Sales are expected to grow 15% to 20% this year. Looking down the road, China's auto sales are expected to grow by one million vehicles annually through 2015.
 
Meanwhile, India is poised to zoom past China as the world's fastest- growing car market. Sales of passenger cars in India increased 12.17% to 1.5 million in this past year.  As a result, today’s Chinese oil imports are expected to nearly double by 2020, and India's oil imports are projected to more than triple over the same time period.
 

 

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