Ten Market (& Non-Market) Predictions For 2008
could we let the last week of 2007 slip by and not submit our predictions
for the coming year? Besides, everybody else seems to be doing it
- why not put our entries on the board?
be the first to admit I don't have a crystal ball, so take everything I
say with a grain of salt. Moreover, some of what I believe may have no
bearing whatsoever on the stock market. (Surely you didn't think small
caps were my only area of interest.) However, if we can have a little
fun while thinking about the future, I'm game.
no particular order, here are ten of the dozens of things I see in store
for the coming year.
I think a true recession will be staved off before it begins. How?
Because everybody and their brother is worried about it, or doing
something about it. I know I'm a closet contrarian, but I can't help it
- things just rarely happen when most everyone sees it coming. A
true recession will sneak up on us quietly, when the talking heads on TV
aren't talking about it.
a downside to avoiding a recession though...I think inflation will have
to be unchained in order to fuel some decent economic growth. It's a fair
price to pay, but not a fun one.
Though I love politics, I truly have no political bias. So, don't take
it personally when I say....
think the Democrats will pick Hillary as their man, err, woman.
The Republican horse-race will remain undecided until late in the game,
but I think John McCain - despite his age - will actually get
the nod before the GOP's national convention (avoiding a brokered convention,
which would scream "we can't really pick one"). In the end, I see McCain
winning a tight race, but I also see yet-another-election-process fiasco
to put the whole thing in question.
I have to think BioCurex (OTCBB:
BOCX) will finally start the long-awaited production and marketing
of their cancer test technology. From
my understanding, it's close to ready. We've also heard rumors that another
licensee is on the verge of getting on board. (Remember, Abbott doesn't
have exclusive rights.) The presentation at the ISOBM conference in
September was quite positive...the technology just needs some fine tuning.
we've heard nothing from BioCurex since then - which is kind of our
red flag. BioCurex's publicity efforts tend to run hot and cold, so
we have to wonder what's been getting done over the last three quiet months.
It may be unleashed in a wave of news in 2008.
I expect value stocks - and small cap value in particular - to make a nice
recovery after their very long drought.
know how many of you keep up with sector and style performance, but if
you do, you'll know value stocks have been in their own mini bear market,
while growth stocks have been in a bull market. Just for the record, small
cap value is down 15.7% for the year, while mid cap growth is
up 12.8%. All the growth indices are up year-to-date; all the value
indices are in the hole year-to-date.
small cap value has been the dragging the bottom, I think that's finally
going to change in 2008. Wait for it though, because I don't think
it's going to get jump-started on January 2nd of the new year. I think
all value stocks will catch up with their growth brethren in the coming
In sports, I see the Rockies beating the Indians in the World Series.
In the near future, I see the Patriots sustaining their dynasty-like
run, this time by topping the Cowboys in Super Bowl XLII...which is
Super Bowl #42 for us non-Romans. Of course, I also picked the Bears to
cover last year, so what do I know?
a semi-related note, I see the AFC leading the NFC though the third quarter
of the Pro Bowl. Then in an unprecedented move, all the players decide
to go home before the fourth quarter starts, when they realize it's not
a real game. (Yes, I'm joking.)
Solar power will continue to grow in functionality and feasibility...to
the point where it works well enough to actually use on a wide scale.
The technology is already pretty good, but I think in 2008 it will get
to (or be at?) the point where investors start to give it a serious look.
I still consider it an early-stage that could take a few years to bear
fruit. At least some key players could emerge though.
in the year, Titan Global (OTCBB:
TTGL) is still likely to get the NASDAQ exchange listing they've been
leaving its bulletin board status behind.
had a NASDAQ application already in the works, but withdrew it several
days ago. The reason? The stock has to trade at or above $4.00 for
several months before the NASDQQ will make a listing. Rather than push
shares up to the required price level via a reverse split, the company
just wants to focus on doing what it does so well...which is growing
the top and bottom lines.
I still foresee a NASDAQ listing by late 2008. Why? I seem to keep
saying this over and over again (mostly because I can't believe it), but...
projected sales are $740 million, and the current market cap is roughly
$150 million. I expect the market to finally figure this out in 2008,
and start to trade TTGL at appropriate price levels.
I suspect Spicy Pickle (OTCBB:
SPKL) will open its 100th store by the end of 2008.
The financial stocks could exceed everyone's expectations and provide
some huge rewards.
As bad as some of the subprime losses were, I think the market's reaction
- a massive devaluation of the entire sector - was overkill. Plus,
with the Fed doing everything they can to buoy stocks, I think the financials
are likely to be a Cinderella story.
still, factor in the news that Martin Whitman is interested in Ambac Financial
MBIA Inc. (NYSE:
MBI), and other financial stocks. Warren Buffett also tipped his hand
with his planned purchase of part of Marmon Holdings. What do they see?
My sleeper sector for 2008 is telecom. I think technology will continue
to roll, but its strength hasn't really been a secret. Real estate and
REITs could surprise a few folks too.
Prediction: I believe someone formerly from the world of politics will
make their way onto TV's 'Dancing With The Stars'. I don't know
who it could be, but somebody has to out-do Trump's use of celebrities
on his show 'The Apprentice'. However, in the case of 'The Apprentice'
well as 'Dancing', seeing celebrities and politicians compete will
make us all long for the days when the competitors weren't politicians
it for today. Again, though I wouldn't have listed anything I didn't feel
strongly about, these are just my predictions and are far from being
ironclad (twelve months is a long time...a lot can change between now
and then). There is something I do know for sure though...
appreciate your continued readership through another year. With your feedback,
support, and suggestions, each of you have helped make the Small Cap Network
a great resource for traders like yourselves. We think 2008 is going to
be our best year ever, and we hope the same is true for you and yours as
may publish one more edition before 2007 comes to a close, but if not,
a great and safe New Year's Day holiday.
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