Trends, Charts and Exclusive Opinion
Three SmallCaps Really Worth a Serious Look
NVAX: U.S. Dept of H&HS Needs Flu Vaccine
DEAR: +15 Cents vs. -81 Cents a Year Ago
PAET: New Network Intrusion and Protection Product
First up this morning is Novavax Inc., (NVAX) http://www.novavax.com/ currently trading in the $2.26 range. NVAX was trading under a $1 a year ago. In late-April of 09, NVAX began an ascent that took the stock to nearly $7 by the end of Aug. In early Sept NVAX fell to $4 by early Oct, flattened out at that level through most of Nov, and then drifted down to a $2 floor in late Jan ’10. NVAX has been steady at that level. NVAX has a 52-week high of $7.79 set on 09-01-09. NVAX is a strong, ‘Buy on the Dips’ consideration for me. Heres why: the recent HHS news.
Last week NVAX announced today that the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), had determined NVAX’s proposal to provide recombinant influenza vaccine products and manufacturing capabilities for pandemic preparedness was in the competitive range for award of an advanced development contract. NVAX submitted its proposal in September of 09 in response to Solicitation No. HHS-BARDA-09-32 for development of a new influenza vaccine in a U.S. based manufacturing facility. If NVAX gets the contract, even a partial contract; the stock will soar.
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Next up this morning is Dearborn Bancorp Inc., (DEAR) http://www.dearbornbancorp.com/ currently trading in the $2.97 range on a 3-Month average daily trading volume of 602,686 shares. DEAR was trading in the $2.50 range a year ago and spent the summer, fall and winter of 09 sliding down in value to less than 50 Cents by early Jan ’10. DEAR then literally skyrocketed over $2 in mid-Jan, fell back to the $1.25 to $1.50 range before rallying towards $3 this month. DEAR has a 52-week high of $3.40 set on 04-21-10. DEAR is a short-term (6 Mo) ‘Buy’ consideration for me. I believe the banking concern has seen its worst days.
This week the shares more than doubled as DEAR posted its first quarterly profit in over a year. DEAR posted Q1 earnings of $1.1 million, or 15 cents a share vs. a loss of $6.2 million, or 81 cents a share a year ago. A huge comeback. And the DEAR provision for loan losses dropped to $100,000 from $10.7 million a year earlier. A huge drop. “During the first quarter, $31.5 million of trouble debt restructure returned to performing status,” CEO Michael Ross said in a regulatory filing. The DEAR allowance for loan losses now stands at $30.3 million or 3.72% of loans. DEAR operates as the bank holding company for Fidelity Bank, which provides commercial banking services in Michigan. As of April 21, 2009, it operated 18 offices in Wayne, Oakland, Macomb and Washtenaw Counties.
Finally this morning is PAETEC Holding Corporation (PAET) http://www.paetec.com/ currently trading in the $4.99 range on a 3-Month average daily trading volume of 743,110 shares. PAET was trading in the $2.50 range a year ago and had spikes in 2009 that took the stock into the $3.50 and near-$4.50 range levels. PAET dipped below $3 (very briefly) in early Feb ’10 before mounting a surge into its current range. PAET has a 52-week high of $5.19 set on 04-22-10 with current trailing twelve month revenues of $1.5+ billion. I think the rally upwards will continue and PAET is a short-term ‘Buy’ consideration for me.
As of March 1 PAET had 234,116 digital T1 transmission lines for approximately 44,000 business customers and broadband network and facilities spanned approximately 20,080 local route miles across 46 states. PAET has the infrastructure and customers so when it delivers new services, like it did in late March, it is instantaneously a hit. In March PAET announced the availability of its new managed network Intrusion Detection and Prevention System (IDPS). Bingo- the stock soars.
Please note that PAET will host its Q1 2010 conference call on May 6 and on May 27 will host its annual shareholders meeting.
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