Aug 27, 2010 10:04 AM PDT
Yesterday and today, stocks of every cap size on every exchange in the world, from the Berlin Exchange to the Hang Seng went ballistic if they had anything to do with India. U.S. ADR's (American Depository Receipts) and publicly traded issues followed suit on the news that this weekend's electoral victory in India by the dominant Congress Party.
On Sunday, the Congress Party won 262 of 543 parliamentary seats, putting the party that backs economic reform on its way to a majority.
Before us option traders could get to their computer models yesterday, the Mumbai stock exchange jumped a record 17% to close at 14,284. Indian shares staged a rally that hadn't been seen for years. Two Indian bank stocks: ICICI (IBN) and HDFC Bank (HDB) were both up more than 20% in the days trading. Infosys (INFY), the second-largest Indian information technology company by revenue was up nine percent in early afternoon trading.
India's benchmark Sensex index extended its post-election rally today, closing up 0.12 percent in a day of volatile trade on hopes that the incoming government would quickly usher in pro-growth reforms. The Sensex index rose 17.82 points, or 0.12 percent, to close at 14,302.03, after skyrocketing an unprecedented 17.3 percent in just seconds of trading Monday, forcing a historic halt to trading.
While trading was halted yesterday for a brief time so everyone could catch their breath, the trading day itself set a landmark and reminded everyone of India's potential as its government turns inward; improving roads, revamping education, and choosing where to place economic subsidies and stimulus.
Today, lots of profit taking. But the overall sentiment is much like an active day on the NYSE with buyers and sellers moving in and out and option traders around the globe now have a chance to participate with some 'designed intent' as the intoxication of the election wears off.
Several Mid Cap stocks in India were the focus of a lot of 'black box' trades and speculators yesterday. Infosys, whose profits have grown 34% in the last five years, was a major beneficiary yesterday. Trading on the Nasdaq in the $33 range, the Company was buoyed by its April 15 beating of expectations for sales and profits. But buyer beware, The ADR's of Infosys trade at approximately 17.5 times this year's projected earnings per share and that's a stifling cost compared to the 13.3 times average of Mumbai's listed stocks (the Standard & Poor's average is approximately 15%).
In addition to the two banks ICICI and HDFC, another Mid Cap that lit up trading yesterday was Wipro Ltd., (WIT) on the NYSE trading today in the $11 range. Wipro is India's third-largest IT outsourcing company (companies providing everything from third-party customer support and information technology services to back-office processing saw revenues grow last year by an average of 13% and expanded their workforces by 18%, according to the International Association of Outsourcing Professionals).
Indian consumers, buoyed by newfound wealth, will increasingly consume their own goods and services, provided the requisite infrastructure exists. Construction firms in general continued their advance today on expectations that the new government would boost infrastructure spending.
ARE THERE SMALL OPPORTUNITIES? YES.
To begin, how about a company in India that was rocked in February by an accounting scandal that sent shares plunging (see Chart). Satyam Computer Services (SAY) http://www.satyam.com/ trading on the NYSE in the $2 range was one of the brightest stars in Indian information technology services and business process outsourcing (BPO) with clients North America, Europe, the Asia Pacific, the Middle-East, Australia, Africa, and South America. Many investors don't think the Company will ever regain its former status, but there is a contingent that thinks new management will remove the tarnish and take advantage of its global client base.
SAY's market cap is $670M and its 52-week high is $29.84. It's very close to its 50-day moving average and far below its 200-day moving average of $5.25. SAY does have a trailing twelve month revenue of $2B and trailing twelve month revenues per share of $6.08. Its shares out and float are at parity.
Another Small Cap of interest is Patni Computer (PTI) http://www.patni.com/ trading on the NYSE in the $9 range. Here's an endorsement: "Weyerhaeuser (WY) congratulates Patni in winning the Weyerhaeuser 2009 'IT Supplier of the Year Award'. This is an exclusive award given to the IT supplier who best demonstrates a commitment to continuous improvement and overall excellence in the Weyerhaeuser IT environment," said Brad Mjelde, Director, IT Supplier Management for Weyerhaeuser. http://www.weyerhaeuser.com/
Patni offers application development, application maintenance and support, packaged software implementation, infrastructure management, product engineering, business process outsourcing, and quality assurance services in the United States, Europe, India, Japan, and the rest of the Asia-Pacific region.
Patni has a market cap of $589M and at $9 is in the middle of its 52-week high and low. It's trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving average with trailing twelve month revenues of $648.97M and trailing twelve month revenues per share of $9.77. Its shares out and float are near-parity.
How about Blackstone closed end mutual fund based on Indian small-cap, mid-cap and large-cap companies. That's the India Fund, Inc., (IFN) http://www.blackstone.com/ trading on the NYSE in the $25 range. The fund employs a quantitative and fundamental analysis with a bottom-up stock picking and asset allocation approach to create its portfolio. It benchmarks the performance of its portfolio against the IFC Investable India Index. The fund was formed on December 27, 1993 and is domiciled in the United States.
It has a market cap of $999M with a 52-week high of $50.98 and a 52-week low of $12.88. It is trading above both its 50-day and 200-day moving average and has revenues over the last calendar year $18.17M.
Finally at $3 a share on the NYSE, there's Mahanagar Telephone Nigram LTD., (MTE) http://www.mtnl.in/ which provides telecommunications services in Delhi and Mumbai. MTE has approximately 3,200,000 cell subscribers, 161K mobile connections, 131K fixed wireless connections, 1.36M Internet subscribers and nearly 600K broadband subscribers.
MTE has a market cap of $1.09B and is trading right in between its 52-week high and low. Its trailing twelve month revenue is $882M and its trailing twelve month revenues per share are $2.8. Its shares out and float are at parity.
