Technical Analysis of AAV, MXGD, and SGDH
Charts of SGD Holdings, Midex Gold, and Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd are given a trading once-over.
No surprises today.... stocks are in the black thanks to a dead-cat bounce. That's a move being made on limited time and limited fuel though. Nevertheless, two of our three focus stocks are actually a bullish possibility from the micro cap world. Here are some thoughts about Midex Gold Corp. (OTC:MXGD), Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. (NYSE:AAV), and SGD Holdings, Ltd. (PINK:SGDH).
There's so little information about SGD Holdings, Ltd. (PINK:SGDH), and such a short history, I'd never consider making this one a long-term investment.... at least not yet. Based on the shape of the chart though, I would be willing to make SGDH a short-term trade.
I've mentioned this like a gazillion times in the last few days, so here's a gazillion and one - the slow, bowl-shaped reversal has panned out far better than any V-shaped reversal has in this environment. Though the upward curvature of the bowl has just started for SGD Holdings, Ltd. (and is far from cemented), I like the bulls' odds here now that the short-term resistance at $0.20 has been broken.
We're not making any progress today, but I'm not surprised either - SGDH launched on Friday on huge volume, which is a tough act to follow. Let's let SGD Holdings slide back a little to regroup - and move higher again - before jumping to any trading conclusions. As long as the $0.20 level holds up as support on a closing (end of day) basis, I'd consider it a buy. I guess that just makes this a 'heads up' warning.
If you're seeing the same high of $0.39 for Midex Gold Corp. (OTC:MXGD) that I'm seeing, then you're probably a little confused. Don't be. I don't think there was actually a trade at that level, as I see no volume or ticks when I drill down to a minute or tick chart - this is unique to the daily chart of MXGD. If it's not a tick error, I suspect that trade will be busted soon enough, as it should have been caught and stopped before processed.
Anyway, the big/stupid move is a tad frustrating, as it's distracting from what would otherwise be an encouraging sign.... that MXGD was working on a rebound move.
I plotted three horizontal lines on the chart. The lowest of the three was support in December, the middle one has been support as well as resistance, and the upper one is a resistance level that Midex Gold Corp. busted through on Friday. The point is to show you clear progress that MXGD has made, one level at a time.
My assumption/hope was that Midex Gold would finally start to run higher on a more consistent and efficient basis now that resistance at $0.05 was snapped on Friday with a strong volume pop. And, I think that's still the case. The ticks (erroneous or not) between $0.35 and $0.39 this morning are disguising that fact from anybody else who's seeing the chart though.
I still ultimately think that the kinks will get worked out for MXGD, and allow the stock to proceed upward. We're on hold, however, until shares can come back, close the gap, and start to move upward again. A return to $0.15 isn't out of the question.
Don't get too excited about today's strength from Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. (NYSE:AAV)... or the fact that AAV is still up since early December. In the bigger picture, the stock's in more trouble than most people may realize.
What's the problem for AAV? Though in an apparent uptrend not only for the last seven weeks, but for the last ten months (see the rising support line), Advantage Oil & Gas shares did something in January that they hasn't done since last March - make a lower high (see the falling resistance line). Don't dismiss that; sometimes it takes several ebbs and flows for a stock's reversal to become clear, and they all start subtly.
From this point forward, the key to trading Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. will be waiting for one side of the wedge or the other to break. That could take as long as six weeks or so before the triangle shape comes to a point and forces AAV out of the formation (though it could happen anytime between now and then as well). Given the potential profit-taking though, I have to think the first lower high in months is a major red flag.
There's so little information about SGD Holdings, Ltd. (PINK:SGDH), and such a short history, I'd never consider making this one a long-term investment.... at least not yet. Based on the shape of the chart though, I would be willing to make SGDH a short-term trade.
I've mentioned this like a gazillion times in the last few days, so here's a gazillion and one - the slow, bowl-shaped reversal has panned out far better than any V-shaped reversal has in this environment. Though the upward curvature of the bowl has just started for SGD Holdings, Ltd. (and is far from cemented), I like the bulls' odds here now that the short-term resistance at $0.20 has been broken.
We're not making any progress today, but I'm not surprised either - SGDH launched on Friday on huge volume, which is a tough act to follow. Let's let SGD Holdings slide back a little to regroup - and move higher again - before jumping to any trading conclusions. As long as the $0.20 level holds up as support on a closing (end of day) basis, I'd consider it a buy. I guess that just makes this a 'heads up' warning.
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Anyway, the big/stupid move is a tad frustrating, as it's distracting from what would otherwise be an encouraging sign.... that MXGD was working on a rebound move.
I plotted three horizontal lines on the chart. The lowest of the three was support in December, the middle one has been support as well as resistance, and the upper one is a resistance level that Midex Gold Corp. busted through on Friday. The point is to show you clear progress that MXGD has made, one level at a time.
My assumption/hope was that Midex Gold would finally start to run higher on a more consistent and efficient basis now that resistance at $0.05 was snapped on Friday with a strong volume pop. And, I think that's still the case. The ticks (erroneous or not) between $0.35 and $0.39 this morning are disguising that fact from anybody else who's seeing the chart though.
I still ultimately think that the kinks will get worked out for MXGD, and allow the stock to proceed upward. We're on hold, however, until shares can come back, close the gap, and start to move upward again. A return to $0.15 isn't out of the question.
Don't get too excited about today's strength from Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. (NYSE:AAV)... or the fact that AAV is still up since early December. In the bigger picture, the stock's in more trouble than most people may realize.
What's the problem for AAV? Though in an apparent uptrend not only for the last seven weeks, but for the last ten months (see the rising support line), Advantage Oil & Gas shares did something in January that they hasn't done since last March - make a lower high (see the falling resistance line). Don't dismiss that; sometimes it takes several ebbs and flows for a stock's reversal to become clear, and they all start subtly.
From this point forward, the key to trading Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. will be waiting for one side of the wedge or the other to break. That could take as long as six weeks or so before the triangle shape comes to a point and forces AAV out of the formation (though it could happen anytime between now and then as well). Given the potential profit-taking though, I have to think the first lower high in months is a major red flag.
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James E. Brumley is a paid contributor of the SmallCap Network. James E. Brumley's personal holdings should be disclosed above. You can also view SmallCap Network's complete disclaimer and disclosure.
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To all wanting to know
Jan 26, 2010 12:45 PM PST
OK.... the error from Monday was cleaned up, but now we're seeing the same for Tuesday? Is this a repeat of that data error? Maybe there's a similar ticker trading at $0.39. Whatever the case, this may be something worth avoiding until we stop seeing these wild pricings.
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