In This Edition...

No small cap suggestion for today, which is fine actually ...there are more important things to talk about after Friday's bearish end to an even more bearish week. The last time we looked, all the indices were toying with another breakdown. We pretty much got to the proverbial fork in the road after Friday's tumble.

Also today we'll look at charts of some select small cap companies. Though there's no 'news' to go along with the chart chat, it's still good to know what kind of traction the underlying investment vehicles are getting in the marketplace. 

In the meantime, notice we added the ISE Sentiment Index discussion to the blog. We've talked about the ISE data a few times in the last couple of weeks, but I didn't get a chance to really explain why I like it. If you were wondering why I'm such a fan, here's your chance to get the whole story. 
 

	Do Or Die Time For Stocks

Did you know on Friday every index either hit a new low or closed at a low close for the year? (In some cases we saw both.) In general, we saw retests of the lows from late January ...though those lows were also a temporary rebound point back then. 

Considering we've made lower highs since late January, coupled with the fact that we're close to making lower lows, I'm prepared for another bearish leg. Notice I didn't say I was bearish - just prepared for it. This is exactly why I explained one of the rules I did on Thursday....wait for the charts to tell you something's changed. We're close, but not really there yet. Lower lows and lower closes this coming week could spark the next wave of selling.

For many of the indices we also saw an open and a close at or near the middle of a fairly wide trading range. This is often a sign of a pivot for stocks. 

It's still a little too soon to make the call, but don't rule out a rebound despite my bearish bias. The pivot sign also occurred right as stocks were revisiting January's lows. I have to wonder if some big players were just waiting to get to those lows again before starting to accumulate. Plus, with IBM, Microsoft, and Intel all closing considerably higher on Friday, obviously not everyone thinks the market is falling apart. 

The coming week will reveal their intention.

So, watch for a break under the recent support lines; in some cases it will also mean now lows for the year. On the flipside, we'd need to see higher highs (or a move past the short-term resistance lines) to get fully bullish again.
 

	Chart Chat

In a blog entry from Wednesday I mentioned SpongeTech Delivery Systems (OTCBB: SPNG) ended a pullback by finding support at its 50 day moving average line. Since then we've seen good - not great - upside follow-through.

Most importantly, over the last four days we've seen continued support at the 50 day average. At the same time we've pretty much seen higher highs and higher lows. And also like I mentioned a while back, we've seen more bullish than bearish volume over the course of the last month (though Friday's volume behind the gain was a little anemic).

So, the stock that was driving me a little crazy is starting to behave reasonably well. I'd like to see a little more progress in the coming week, but I believe we're getting there. Getting past 3.4 cents will be a big deal (SPNG is currently at 3.3 cents), and getting past February's peak of 4.9 cents I think could be a huge bullish spark. 

Here's a name you haven't heard in a while - CEL-SCI (AMEX: CVM). We put this biotech name on the backburner while they were getting ready top start Phase III trials of the head and neck cancer treatment Multikine. (Welcome to biotech - an exercise in patience.) 

Though Phase III is still months away, patience and confidence was rewarded a little bit over the last few weeks. After reaching a multi-year low of 37 cents on January 22nd, CEL-SCI shares have managed to push back - all the way back up to Friday's close of 63 cents. They had been as high as 74 cents, a couple of different times actually ...February 5th, and March 6th. 

As much as we like the company and the stock's long-term potential, we'd be the first to acknowledge CVM shares don't lack volatility. The bigger rewards seem to be doled out to those who wait for pullbacks before jumping in. I don't see now being any different than then.

A break past 74 cents could override my buy-a-pullback theory though.

Maybe it's something, or maybe it's nothing, but Smart Energy Solutions' (OTCBB: SMGY) stock is starting to act a little bit differently ...I think. The last couple of weeks have been the best two weeks we've seen in a long time.

Specifically, I saw a long-term resistance line broken. We can also see the 50 day moving average line is being pressured.

Like I said, maybe it's nothing, but it's got me curious. The company has been relatively quiet of late, but I also know they had about a dozen or so different projects up in the air. I wonder if a couple of those are finally in place and ready to drive revenue.

The other possibility - maybe the market found their investor presentation....the one I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, which included a pretty sweet sales growth forecast. The timing of the new found interest certainly makes sense.

Bottom line: Don't count Smart Energy out yet - I just have a feeling.
 

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TGR Group, LLC has been paid a fee of $30,000 cash and 750,000 shares of newly issued restricted stock by Spongetech Delivery Systems Inc. for coverage of the Company. Additionally, one of the managing Members of TGR Group, LLC has purchased 150,000 shares of Spongetech Delivery Systems, Inc. in the open market with an average cost basis of $.035 cents per share.

TGR Group, LLC has been paid a fee of $30,000 cash and 350,000 shares of newly issued restricted stock by Smart Energy Solutions for coverage of the Company.

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