Looking Forward: GEOY, TRGL, HCKT

GEOY: Total Q3 09 Revenues Increase 123% over Q3 08

TRGL: On Strong Q3, Can French Oil Producer Set a New $9 Floor?

HCKT: Tops 52-Week High Today on Q3 Expectations this Afternoon

Gaining 6.75% this morning is GeoEye, Inc., (GEOY) http://www.geoeye.com/ currently trading in the $27.57 range. GEOY easily passed its 3-Month average daily trading volume early in the session today. GEOY is approximately $1.33 off its 52-week high of $28.90 set on May 11, 2009. There are two primary, underlying reasons why this stock is a 'Buy' for me: its biggest customer for its satellite services and equipment is the U.S. government (67% of revenues) and GEOY returned $1.72 diluted EPS on $194 million in trailing twelve month revenues during the 'great recession'.

I believe the floor on GEOY is $25 and the stock is testing $26. Support appears to keep pushing it into the $27-28 range. This is a $30-32 stock for me in the near-term so, there's still money to be made here.

If you look at the chart, you'll see an early November anomaly which I believe was caused by short-sellers. GEOY is exposed to a good percentage of shorts. They must believe the government is a slow-pay. Imagine that. In any case, as the public market pushes the stock up, the short-sellers will have to buy to cover and increase overall share value. Yesterday after market, GEOY released its Q3 2009 numbers.  

GEOY reported total revenues were $79.9 million, a 123% increase from $35.8 million for Q3 2008. Net income for Q3 09 was $12.5 million, or $0.61 per fully diluted share, compared to net income of $31.6 million, or $1.57 per fully diluted share for Q3 08. GEOY ended Q3 09 with unrestricted cash and cash equivalents of $123.6 million, total assets of $812.1 million, and stockholders' equity of $257.6 million and long-term debt of $248.0 million.

One line on the 9 months results: Total revenues for the nine months ended September 30, 2009 were $197.9 million, an 86.7% increase from $106.0 million in the nine months ended September 30, 2008.

Matt O'Connell, CEO and GEOY President, said, "We continued to ramp our revenues from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (the NGA) contract in the third quarter." GEOY expects FY 2009 revenues between $275-280 million and a proforma EPS of $1.30 to $1.45.

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GEOY

Gaining 4.25% this morning is Toreador Resources Corporation (TRGL) http://www.toreador.net/ currently trading in the $9.81 range. TRGL is a heavily traded SmallCap stock. TRGL is approximately 99 cents off its 52-week high of $10.79 set on September 28, 2009. The chart below shows a huge spike in September to the $8 range and then a pretty steady pattern between $8-9. With world oil coming back online during the recovery, I believe TRGL can set a floor at $9. TRGL is based in France and has a big advantage there, in one of Europe's biggest oil-consuming nations. TRGL recently relocated from Dallas, Texas to Paris, France. Good move.

I believe the recent TRGL share value rise is based upon a new CFO and new Directors being added to the employment roster (fresh blood) and the Company's, "... sale agreements of our Turkish and Hungarian operations to focus on core French operations."

In its Q3 09 earnings, management also pointed out, "... the elimination of a significant portion of the Company's debt by the repurchase in the open market of $25.7 million face value of our 5% Convertible Senior Notes due 2025 at a purchase price of $21.4 million, which resulted in a gain of $3.4 million on the early extinguishment of debt." Smart.  

TRGL revenues for Q3 09 were $5.2 million compared to $9.6 million in Q3 08. The decrease was primarily due to the decline in global oil prices and a temporary decrease in oil production while planned well repairs and maintenance activities were conducted.

While TRGL lost $12.5 million or $0.59 per diluted share in Q3 09 and $1.00 for the first nine months of 09, I believe the worst is behind them. They've lowered their debt significantly, moved their headquarters to where they actually make money, sold two units that weren't great revenue producers and brought in a whole new team of financial experts. This is a near-term 'Watch Closely' stock for me.  

TRGL                                                                         HCKT

Gaining 6.03% this morning is The Hacket Group, Inc., (HCKT) http://www.thehackettgroup.com/  currently trading in the $3.69 range. HCKT easily surpassed its 3-Month average daily trading volume early in the session. HCKT topped its 52-week high this morning of $3.50 on expectations of its Q3 2009 earnings numbers this afternoon after the market closes. If history is any teacher, HCKT pulled in a positive $0.28 diluted EPS in the trailing twelve month on $173 million in revenues.

I believe HCKT has a $2.40 bottom, then a $3 bottom and in the near-term could set $3.40 as its bottom. But that's not the story here. At $3.69 as of this writing, will good Q3 news propel it to $4 or beyond or will bad Q3 news drop it to $3.25? This is a Day-Traders nightmare. HCKT is a 'Watch for Fun' stock for me today and tomorrow.

HCKT operates as a strategic advisory and technology consulting company primarily in the United States and Western Europe. It provides executive advisory programs, benchmarking, business transformation, technology consulting, and consulting services, including shared services, off-shoring, and outsourcing advices. It serves various automotive, consumer goods, financial services, technology, life sciences, manufacturing, media and entertainment, retail, telecommunications, transportation, and utilities industries.

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