The market's in the black again today, but the last few days have made it clear that all is not is bullish as it seemed two weeks ago. It's time to start getting picky with trades. Among the better opportunities we're seeing right now are ICOP Digital Inc. (ICOP), Pengrowth Energy Trust (PGH), YM BioSciences Inc. (YMI), and Oracle Corp. (ORCL). Here's a closer look at what we expect from each.
Don't be overly distracted by last week's tumble from
Pengrowth Energy Trust (
PGH) shares. It's starting to look like a mere blip, as the stock is pushing off what was formerly a support level.
That support is marked with a thick blue line on our chart; it's at $9.18. That's where Pengrowth Energy shares had been hitting a ceiling until last month, when it broke through it... finally. That was a huge feat, allowing PGH to keep rising, but with more volume.
Last week's selloff has almost been erased, and the Pengrowth Energy buyers are still plentiful (volume is actually growing). The next hurdle is the first Fibonacci line at $11.20. If it can be jumped too, look for PGH to move to $15.30.
No matter how generous you get with the support levels,
Oracle Corp. (
ORCL) just doesn't seem to have any left. It broke under one in the middle of last month, and broke under 'the big one' last week. Both are marked in blue on the chart.
It's 'the big' support line going back to November (not shown on chart) that has us worried. Yes, Oracle shares fell under that line for a while in March, but it's been support more often than not. Now that it's failed again, ORCL owners may not be as interested in holding on, opting to take profits instead.
From here -
and despite today's modest strength - we're looking for Oracle to at least fall back to what should be a support area around $18.00, where the stock hit bottom a couple of times in April and May.
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We're actually glad
ICOP Digital Inc. (
ICOP) is sliding lower today. After yesterday's strong move higher, we were going to issue a bullish outlook, but simultaneously warn that the stock was overbought in the short run. The market's taken care of that for us though.
To really give you some perspective in just how compelling ICOP Digital is right now (and to explain the smart time frame), we're going to look at a weekly chart. Why? It speaks for itself - ICOP is working on a recovery effort. More importantly, ICOP has started it not with a V-shaped move, but rather a U-shaped move... which tend to have much higher odds of success.
Even more encouraging is the fact that volume has clearly picked up for ICOP Digital on the way up - a paradigm shift indeed. As for targets, let's use the first Fibonacci retracement line at $3.60 as a 'bigger picture' target. Plan for a lot of volatility on the way up, however.
And finally,
YM BioSciences Inc. (
YMI) had a good run, but the breakdown appears to have begun today. The stock's fallen under a key support level, and doesn't have another one for miles.
That support level is at $1.40, and marked on out chart. YM BioSciences first found a floor there after the initial dip following the August runup, and then tested that support line again just a few days ago. The third support effort this week ultimately failed, as YMI is currently trading at $1.35.
From here, it's hard to say where YM BioSciences shares will end up. You could make a strong case that the stock is headed back to the August gap level of $0.60, though that would be quite a dramatic move. Either way though, YMI is falling now, and even covering half that ground would be a major tumble.
If you'd like to know of any changes in our opinion of ICOP, YMI, ORCL, or PGH (or if we officially recommend them as trades),
be sure to sign up for our free newsletter today. It's delivered 2 to 3 times per week.
