Chart Analysis for CTRP, JDSU, and SOLR

The futures are a mixed bag this morning, and last night's after-hours session along with this morning's pre-open session are suggesting lots of volatility are in store. What's this mean for GT Solar International, Inc. (NASDAQ:SOLR), Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (NASDAQ:CTRP), and JDS Uniphase Corporation (NASDAQ:JDSU)? Take a look.

If the after-hours trading and this morning's pre-open activity are any indication (and they are), then JDS Uniphase Corporation (NASDAQ:JDSU) should open in profitably territory today. JDSU didn't necessarily need a bullish boost, given the overall trend, but that small step this morning will carry the stock past a near-term hurdle.

Just to offer some perspective, that key hurdle is the rising support line in the middle of all the others on the chart of JDSU below... the thick one. The stock waved a red flag when it fell under that floor last week, but we should see a move back above it today. That should pretty much secure a move up to the $10.00 area for JDS Uniphase, where the upper edge of the bullish zone now lies.

Beyond that is anybody's guess, though given the overall chart action, the odds of JDS Uniphase Corporation breaking above that resistance line are low. On the other hand, given the same chart action, the odds remain high that JDSU will continue upward when prompted to bounce each time that key support line is met.

The pre-market action for Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (NASDAQ:CTRP) is not encouraging. In fact, if the stock opens at the current (pre-market) price of $30.87, then CTRP will have breached the last/lowest of the three support lines in play right now.

A reason to bail? Normally I'd say yes, though I think in this case the right thing to do is wait and see how things shape up for CTRP throughout the trading session. I've got a sneaking suspicion a sharply lower open could result in some bargain-shopping that would actually end up pushing Ctrip.com International back above that support line (or even all three of them) by the end of the day. So, that's the ultimate arbiter.... the closing price.

Side note: As for how far Ctrip.com International, Ltd. could fall under those three trend lines, we can look to the November divergence for a clue. The stock put a distance of about ten points between its price and the middle area of those lines. Assuming we still need to 'burn off' the echoes of that excess, then CTRP may need to move about 10 points under that same trend line - or to the $24-ish area - before it's all said and done. That's more than a little excessive by any other pullback gauging tool though. The Fibonacci retracement line at $27.83 is more plausible as a rebound point. Just know both may be factors.


The pre-market session shows GT Solar International, Inc. (NASDAQ:SOLR) is on track for a super-strong open. In fact, the stock is likely to hurdle one of its major near-term ceilings. SOLR won't clear the other one though, which may end up back-firing if the open is a little too hot and profit-taking kicks in.

As of right now, I'm showing SOLR at a price of $6.70. That's above the horizontal resistance of $6.26, which has been plaguing this chart since September. It's not, however, above $7.23, where GT Solar International shares topped out last June and August. Until the latter line is broken, we have to assume this stock is still ultimately range-bound.

The frustration for current GT Solar International owners is that the stock is probably worth well more than that $7.23, but getting from here to there is a challenge. Were SOLR able to walk up there at a nominal pace, it would only take a few weeks. There's nothing subtle about this equity though - the big jumps it's apt to make are also the reason it's apt to not follow through on them. There's just too much profit-taking temptation.

Anyway, the $7.23 mark is the ceiling; hopefully $6.26 becomes the floor after acting as a ceiling.