Chart Analysis: Outlook for GTN, MPG, AGYS, SOMX

Somaxon Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SOMX), Agilysys Inc. (AGYS), Maguire Properties Inc. (MPG), and Gray Television Inc. (GTN) are rockin' and rollin' today, but what does tomorrow hold? That depends on some key clues from each chart. Here's a closer look.

Today's 11% dip from Agilysys Inc. (AGYS) is probably the least of its problems. If our read on the chart is right, the stock's likely to be headed back to a major support line at $4.60 now that the consolidation around $7.00 has broken down. The selling volume has been strong too.

It could get even worse from there though.

As is stands right now, Agilysys Inc. shares are working on the second shoulder of a bearish head and shoulders pattern. It's still a little soon to say that support will break, so we'll only target $4.60 for AGYS right now. If that pattern takes shape though, a move back to $2.00 is possible.

Stay tuned.

If you think Gray Television Inc. (GTN) has run a little bit too far away to jump on now, you're right - the stock's overbought.... by a lot. At this point we simply recommend leaving it alone and letting the first, euphoric-induced wave run its course. The stock may get reeled in quite nicely - perhaps back to the $1.00 area.

Beyond that, we view GTN as something worth stepping into when the second wave starts. Though they more than quadruped in value over the last two months, Gray Television shares are also trading at about 1/5 of their peak value from 2007. That's a lot of room for recovery.

Unfortunately, we can't give you any specifics on how to trade GTN yet - we'll have to come back to it. We just know that the bulls have knocked down a major hurdle.

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Though Somaxon Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SOMX) appears a little anemic on the surface, a closer look reveals there's actually something quite interesting (and bullish) going on here.


First and foremost, SOMX has created a key support line... two of them, actually. Both are guiding share higher now, rekindling a prior uptrend. We've seen a couple of high-volume rallies help with breaking down the walls.

The only concern here is the way Somaxon shares seem to keep closing at the lower end of the daily ranges; it doesn't exactly scream 'demand'. The stock's still making gains though, so there have to be more buyers than sellers. Those gains could quicken now that the falling resistance line has been cracked.

Bottom line? SOMX has some upside.


And finally, Maguire Properties Inc. (MPG) has exploded today, gaining 34% on its highest volume day in years. In the short run we think the stock's going to fall back under the weight of the excessive gain. In the long run this is another one of those names that offers more upside than downside.

On our chart, you can see MPG has been through a paradigm/direction shift over the last eight months... the consolidation range between $0.50 and $1.60 was the bottom. The move past the ceiling, however, has no foundation. It's a step in the right direction, but not sustainable. We want to see Maguire Properties come back, and then do the same thing again - only this time at a sustainable pace.

Once MPG starts to hold the line at $1.70 consistently, we'll view it as a full-fledged buy.


If you'd like to know of any changes in our opinion of AGYS, SOMX, GTN, or MPG (or if we officially recommend them as trades), be sure to sign up for our free newsletter today. It's delivered 2 to 3 times per week.