Small Cap Stock Analysis

Break-Out Insights: VASC, CPBY, ININ, NVAX

Top-Line Discoveries, Performances and Charts

Published: October 13, 2009 9:31:27 AM PDT
Rating 4

Getting a huge 31% jump in yesterday's after-hours trading was Vascular Solutions Inc., (VASC) http://www.vascularsolutions.com/ and it picked up another 10% this morning on news from the FDA the Company can sell its new Guardian II hemostasis valve. More on that down the page. I like this stock for two top-line reasons: 1; at $9.20 it's 94 cents off its 52-week high and I think it will topple that record and set a threshold and 2; during the worst recession in memory, VASC had earnings.

In fact, VASC had $1.15 in trailing twelve month earnings and those weren't solely based on bottom-line cost controls or charge-offs. This stock has plenty of room to grow beyond a $10+ floor. Trailing twelve month revenues were $64 million which isn't bad at all for a drug device newcomer. Today's trading volume was 8 times normal. Pharma-followers now know who VASC is.

The VASC device okay'd by the FDA reduces blood loss during certain surgical procedures and is waiting for commercialization and marketing: top-line revenue sales. The device is made by Ireland-based Zerusa Ltd., and licensed to VASC; exclusively. Zerusa sells the device overseas, but VASC has the U.S. market. That = $.

vasc         cpby

VASC                                                                   CPBY

CPBY: A New 52-Week High Today

Ever want to get into China? Here's a good bet because the company provides public 'security' and crowd control for the private sector and the government. China Information Technology, Inc., (CPBY) http://www.cistchina.com/ jumped 8% today on news it has signed contracts in Q3 of 2009 that were valued at approximately $30 million, an increase of over 14.3% compared to the contracts signed during Q2 09.

CPBY produces sales revenues and will always have a product in need by the government. CPBY said the contracts were from clients in 14 provinces and provincial cities, increasing its market presence from 28 to 32 provinces and provincial cities throughout China. That's distribution expansion and that's top-line performance revenue.

CPBY jumped its 52-week high today and is now in the $7.20 range. Can $8 be far off? CPBY also posted diluted earnings of $0.52 in the past twelve months on $86 million in revenues. This is a 'Buy' stock. Even at its high. Of this quarter's contracts, 55% were for the Company's Digital Information Security Technology ("DIST") products, 30% were for its Geographic Information Systems ("GIS") products and 15% were for its Digital Hospital Information Systems ("DHIS") products.

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ININ: A New 52-Week High Today

Interactive Intelligence Inc., (ININ) http://www.inin.com/ picked up 10% this morning and entered into a new level at $20.61. Yesterday, the Company gave guidance it expects revenue between $32 million and $34 million. It reported $30.1 million in the year-ago quarter. Analysts expect $31.3 million. Growing revenues. Good. ININ had $123 million in trailing twelve month revenues and during the recession in memory, just like VASC and CPBY posted positive, diluted earnings: $0.32. ININ management said yesterday that two license orders for more than $1 million each, along with eight orders worth more than $250,000 apiece helped revenue. The software maker expects to report a profit of $2.5 million to $2.9 million, or 13 cents to 16 cents per share. When excluding items, the company expects to have earned 28 cents to 31 cents per share. This looks like a $25 stock to me and there's money to be made here before its official earnings announcement.

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inin     nvax

ININ                                                                       NVAX

Finally today, Bio-Tech company Novavax, Inc., (NVAX) http://www.novavax.com/ picked up a 3.5% gain on news it received a $246,000 grant to help develop a vaccine for respiratory syncytial virus from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, part of the National Institutes of Health. NVAX is very liquid, trading over 8 million shares on a daily average, and it's currently, at $3.80, half its 52-week value. Can it climb back? Considering that NVAX has its core business focused on product-to-market, its virus-like particle technology, which is intended to create vaccines in a few weeks when standard methods can take several months, and flu season is here through the spring, I think it can; at least to the $6 level in the short-term (6 mos) and upon commercialization, could hit the $8 range.

The grant for NVAX is based on its vaccine, now being tested on calves, which can arrest the Syncytial virus which infects nearly 8.5 million adults every year and can cause severe pneumonia in the elderly. The virus is the most common cause of lower respiratory tract illnesses in infants and young children. NVAX also has vaccines that fight H5N1 and other subtypes of avian influenza (bird flu) with pandemic potential, as well as Varicella Zoster that causes shingles. NVAX has a large presence in India.

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