BioPorto A/S - Analyst Initiation. : Analysis

Symbol(s): BIOPOR.CO
Action	Recommendation	Timeframe	Risk
Upgrade	Strong Buy	Long-Term	Low

It is very gratifying that the first analyst initiates coverage of BioPorto, with a strong BUY recommendation and a price target of 16.7, ie. an upside of 125%.
The analysis can be found by using google, seach" proinvestor +stock inition report"

I was very positively surprised when I saw that the report contained 14 pages, after reading so it could well have filled a lot less. There are quite a lot of copy paste from www.bioporto.com.
So, it's not everyone who has so thorough a knowledge of the share, so conversely you could say that the 14 sides are really good reading for new investors, it provides a really nice overview of the case study.

Peter Aabo reaches a peak sale in 2021 at 6,583,000,000, and this year is estimated at 50.7 million, rising to 80, 131 and 220mio in 2013, 2014 and 2015.

I think it is a bit conservative because we all expect that NGAL would be found in the guidelines within the next 2-3 years. Should www.era-edta.org or www.kdigo.org/ choose to implement NGAL in the guidelines, you will not just see a 80-100% increase in sales, sales will explode if the KDIGO recommend all doctors to use NGAL, rather than the now retired serum creatinine.
Kdigo is, by the way, presenting AKI guidelines for the first time, primo 2012

Over the last year, there has been published over 200 reports, which all highlight the need for a new biomarker for AKI. Each of these reports describe significant deficiencies in the current, and 50-60 years old SCR tests used by default. And also describes all of these reports great opportunities with the new biomarkers exist, especially where NGAL is highlighted. read this: Better kidney markers ahead? on this link http://ngal.com/news/better-kidney-markers-ahead/

Some advantages of getting a new and better marker of AKI be read in a recent statement by Doctor.
http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=da&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.proinvestor.com%2Fboards%2F50185%2FNGAL-og-sekundaere-fordele&act=url

bit of a dodge to say that I do not agree with a steadily rising curve, but a steadily rising curve until the wheels suddenly takes hold - if NGAL enteres international guidelines, then the share price will rise explosively, with several hundreds, perhaps thousands percent.

One thing that bothered me a little in this analysis, was that BioPorto's other patent applications were not mentioned, if you get a key patent like BioPorto's cutoff patent, then one begins to subsequently build a "fence" around it, with several follow-on patents .

At the EPO (European Patent Office) BioPorto recently received another NGAL patent, a patent covering the trauma that can lead to AKI, as occurs in war and natural disasters, most recently we saw the U.S. Army was interested in NGAL test in connection with AKI in war situations. U.S. Army had recently an invitation out of NGAL.

Furthermore, regarding CCH´s (Cincinnati Children's Hospital) NGAL patent for ischemic renal injury was recently revoked by the EPO, in opposition proceedings brought by BioPorto. Abbott had already licensed access to this patent, and the intention was probably a loophole into the NGAL market.
As it is currently. then, Abbott has NO ability to sell their NGAL test on a large scale.

Furthermore, the report mentions nothing about the other pending patent claims from BioPorto, they are currently under examination. BioPorto has a patent application that is a complete counter-image to the cutoff patent, ie. that you can make a limit on sick patients over 250ng/ml, they have a patent application under examination, in healthy patients under 250ng/ml.
Since there are several healthy patients than sick patients, so I think actually this patent is more valuable than the Cutoff patent.

BioPorto also have NGAL patent application on cross-testing of blood and urine.

The absolute only reasonable agreement regarding heterogeneous test will be if BioPorto and Abbott could agree on the U.S., I think that Abbott should soon have a head start on the American market, at approx. 1 ½ years, so until BioPorto is through the FDA with the homogeneous test, so it seems reasonable to devote Abbott heterogeneous test until then. And then replaced by BioPorto homogeneity test, which incidentally is faster, more accurate and with a larger range. FDA accepted Abbott´s NGAL test, in early 2010 for review, BioPorto´s NGAL test was accepted for review late 2011.

Links:
www.bioporto.com
www.ngal.com
http://www.proinvestor.com/grupper

BioPorto A/S - Analyst Initiation.

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BIOPOR.CO