AEN, SUF, and GNVC Have Already Tipped Their Hands

The market managed to regain what it had given up at mid-day on Wednesday. Too bad not every stock managed to rally with it. Since they're of particular interest to many of you, let's take a technical look at Adeona Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMEX:AEN), GenVec, Inc. (NASDAQ:GNVC), and SulphCo, Inc. (AMEX:SUF) to see if we can extrapolate a forecast from the hints each has already dropped.

You may recall our first time around with GenVec, Inc. (NASDAQ:GNVC). I officially picked the stock back on October 16th, but feeling it had run its course, I suggested officially bailing on GNVC back on January 20th after it hit $1.94. All told. I can't complain about the GNVC trade - our readers who took the advice made about 117%. On the flipside, the recent rebound from $1.74 to yesterday's peak of $3.35 put the whole decision in question..... until today.

GNVC fell back to $2.82 today, which translates into a 16% tumble from the recent high. It's a bitter-sweet affirmation that I made the right decision, particularly knowing that more downside is on the way. Why do I think that? Because the selling volume GenVec, Inc. today was the strongest volume we've seen in a few weeks; the sellers are crawling out of the woodwork.

In retrospect, the rollover point for GenVec yesterday shouldn't be a surprise in the least. That high of $3.35 is exactly where the stock topped out back on January 25th. The almost-outside-day reversal bar we saw from GNVC on Tuesday didn't mince any message either.

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I actually brought this up about SulphCo, Inc. (AMEX:SUF) a few days ago. It didn't mean much in the days following my comments, but beginning yesterday - and following through today - SUF has started to brew up the breakdown I suggested was coming back on March 2nd.

The key here is, or was anyway, support at $0.41. SUF had been finding a floor there since late January. The persistent attack on that floor, however, was chipping away at its support-like properties. Yesterday the sum effect of that effort was evidenced by the move to a low of $0.36 and a close of $0.40. The nail in the SulphCo coffin was driven in today, with a low of $0.35 and a close of $0.37.

I can't speculate about a downside target, as there is no meaningful frame of reference to create one for SulphCo, Inc. I can only suggest following this trend until we see early hints of a rebound, not unlike the early hints of the breakdown we've seen over the last six weeks. I suspect bullish volume will be the big clue for SUF to that end, just as bearish volume clearly picked up prior to this meltdown.

Finally, something bullish - Adeona Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMEX:AEN). I don't know much about this stock from a fundamental perspective, but I have noticed a pattern that traders and investors may be able to use to their advantage. In a nutshell, AEN pops with a one-day-wonder move every few months, and than fades until the next jump.

The chart of AEN below really says it all. Since January of last year (and beginning with the spike then), we've seen this stock make three Herculean moves, each of which occurred immediately after an encounter with a modestly-rising support line. I don't think that the recent - as in the last three days - strength from Adeona Pharmaceuticals suffices as a repeat of the pattern; I'm still expecting a ludicrous-sized move sometime. Thus, there's my bullish argument.

Eventually the market will catch on to the pattern, and start trying to tap into it. Of course, that will completely disrupt the pattern, making this observation for Adeona Pharmaceuticals completely useless. On the other hand, I think we can squeeze out one or two more of these pops before they stop happening.

One more thing the chart's got going for it now is a new, and slightly-more bullish rising support line. That's the one that goes back to December's low, and traces all the major lows AEN has made since then.



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